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    Home > Food News > Food Articles > Global oilseed market: Rain in North America reduces the risk premium of soybeans and rapeseed

    Global oilseed market: Rain in North America reduces the risk premium of soybeans and rapeseed

    • Last Update: 2021-08-04
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Foreign media news on August 1st: For the week ending July 30, 2021, global rapeseed prices have risen and fallen.
    Among them, North American oilseed prices have fallen, Canadian rapeseed has played a leading role, continuing the weakness in recent weeks, mainly Because the precipitation in some oilseed producing areas in the United States and Canada has cooled down, it will help stabilize the oilseed crops
    .
    At the same time, high prices have led to continued weakness in demand, especially in China which is worrying
    .
    However, the US soybean crop will enter a critical growth period in August, and there are still uncertainties in the weather and yield prospects, which provide potential support to the oilseed market
    .
     
    On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell 2.
    50 cents, or 0.
    18%, from a week ago, to close at 1,349.
    25 cents per cat
    .
    The average spot price of Meiwan No.
    1 yellow soybeans was 1,484.
    25 cents per po, up 13.
    75 cents or 0.
    94% from a week ago
    .
    The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at approximately 522.
    5 euros/ton, down 7.
    75 euros or 1.
    46% from a week ago
    .
    The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed futures fell by about 41.
    2 Canadian dollars or 4.
    66% from a week ago to close at 842.
    20 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was 531 US dollars (including 33% export tax) ), up 3 dollars or 0.
    57% from a week ago
    .
    On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybeans closed at 5,678 yuan/ton in September, up 2 yuan from a week ago
    .
     
      On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
    91 points, up 0.
    2% from a week ago, and this is the second consecutive week of gains
    .
     
      The oilseed market continued to show typical weather this week, and the price trend was largely influenced by the weather forecast
    .
    After a recent period of continuous hot and dry weather, some parts of the Midwestern United States saw rainfall this week and the temperature dropped, which helped stabilize crop conditions
    .
    The latest weather forecast shows that the temperature will drop further next week, and a storm system will also appear, bringing hope to corn and soybean growers
    .
     
      According to the weekly crop progress report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday, as of July 25, the excellent and good rate of soybeans in the United States had decreased by 2% from the previous week to 58%, compared with 72% in the same period last year
    .
    The soybean blooming rate was 76%, last week 63%, last year 74%, and the five-year average 71%
    .
    The soybean pod rate was 42%, last week 23%, last year 40%, and the five-year average 36%
    .
     
      The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture recently estimated that the ending stocks of U.
    S.
    soybeans for 2020/21 will be 135 million cats, and the forecast of the ending stocks of U.
    S.
    soybeans for 2020/22 will be 155 million cats, both of which are historically low
    .
    This means that the U.
    S.
    soybean yield this year needs to reach a trend line level or higher to meet the increasing demand and at the same time replenish depleted stocks
    .
     
      At the same time, with the arrival of new soybeans in South America, demand for soybean exports in the United States has slowed down significantly
    .
    In the week ending July 22, 2021, US soybean net sales for 2020/21 decreased by 79,300 tons, which was significantly lower than last week and the four-week average
    .
    The total US soybean export sales so far this year is 61.
    91 million tons, an increase of 32.
    9% over the same period last year
    .
     
      According to ANEC, the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association, Brazil’s soybean exports in July 2021 may reach 8.
    45 million tons, which is lower than last week’s estimate of 9.
    44 million tons, but higher than the 8.
    03 million tons in July last year
    .
    Soybean exports in June this year were 10.
    13 million tons
    .
    Analysts pointed out that the reason for the slowdown in Brazilian soybean exports is that most of the soybeans have already been sold
    .
     
      In Europe, the EU crop monitoring agency MARS released a monthly report.
    The EU rapeseed yield forecast for 2021 was lowered to 3.
    19 tons/ha, lower than the June forecast of 3.
    23 tons/ha, but still 4.
    8% higher than the five-year average.

    .
    Heavy rains and floods occurred in several Western European countries this month, raising concerns about crop damage
    .
    However, MARS said that although rainy weather hindered the harvest of winter crops, the impact on yields was limited
    .
    In eastern Romania, rains that last until the end of June may accelerate the spread of pests and diseases, thereby reducing crop quality
    .
     
      In terms of the planting area for the next year, the soybean planting area in Brazil is expected to increase by 2% to 7%, which will also be the 15th consecutive year of growth
    .
    But the situation in Argentina is another matter
    .
    Beijing Derunlin analyst Ping Chuan pointed out that due to factors such as tax differences and yield potential, corn planting yields higher, so farmers continue to increase the corn planting area
    .
     
      The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts that the acreage of soybeans in Argentina will fall to 16.
    7 million hectares (41.
    3 million acres) next year, the lowest level in 15 years
    .
    Farmers in Argentina began planting soybeans in October
    .
    The exchange predicts that the output in 2022 will reach 49 million tons, an increase of 9.
    1% over the current year’s drought caused by the reduction in output
    .
      Foreign media news on August 1st: For the week ending July 30, 2021, global rapeseed prices have risen and fallen.
    Among them, North American oilseed prices have fallen, Canadian rapeseed has played a leading role, continuing the weakness in recent weeks, mainly Because the precipitation in some oilseed producing areas in the United States and Canada has cooled down, it will help stabilize the oilseed crops
    .
    At the same time, high prices have led to continued weakness in demand, especially in China which is worrying
    .
    However, the US soybean crop will enter a critical growth period in August, and there are still uncertainties in the weather and yield prospects, which provide potential support to the oilseed market
    .
    Rapeseed prices, oilseeds, Canada, the United States, China, soybeans
     
      On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell 2.
    50 cents, or 0.
    18%, from a week ago, to close at 1,349.
    25 cents per cat
    .
    The average spot price of Meiwan No.
    1 yellow soybeans was 1,484.
    25 cents per po, up 13.
    75 cents or 0.
    94% from a week ago
    .
    The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at approximately 522.
    5 euros/ton, down 7.
    75 euros or 1.
    46% from a week ago
    .
    The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed futures fell by about 41.
    2 Canadian dollars or 4.
    66% from a week ago to close at 842.
    20 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was 531 US dollars (including 33% export tax) ), up 3 dollars or 0.
    57% from a week ago
    .
    On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybeans closed at 5,678 yuan/ton in September, up 2 yuan from a week ago
    .
     
      On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
    91 points, up 0.
    2% from a week ago, and this is the second consecutive week of gains
    .
     
      The oilseed market continued to show typical weather this week, and the price trend was largely influenced by the weather forecast
    .
    After a recent period of continuous hot and dry weather, some parts of the Midwestern United States saw rainfall this week and the temperature dropped, which helped stabilize crop conditions
    .
    The latest weather forecast shows that the temperature will drop further next week, and a storm system will also appear, bringing hope to corn and soybean growers
    .
     
      According to the weekly crop progress report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday, as of July 25, the excellent and good rate of soybeans in the United States had decreased by 2% from the previous week to 58%, compared with 72% in the same period last year
    .
    The soybean blooming rate was 76%, last week 63%, last year 74%, and the five-year average 71%
    .
    The soybean pod rate was 42%, last week 23%, last year 40%, and the five-year average 36%
    .
     
      The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture recently estimated that the ending stocks of U.
    S.
    soybeans for 2020/21 will be 135 million cats, and the forecast of the ending stocks of U.
    S.
    soybeans for 2020/22 will be 155 million cats, both of which are historically low
    .
    This means that the U.
    S.
    soybean yield this year needs to reach a trend line level or higher to meet the increasing demand and at the same time replenish depleted stocks
    .
     
      At the same time, with the arrival of new soybeans in South America, demand for soybean exports in the United States has slowed down significantly
    .
    In the week ending July 22, 2021, US soybean net sales for 2020/21 decreased by 79,300 tons, which was significantly lower than last week and the four-week average
    .
    The total US soybean export sales so far this year is 61.
    91 million tons, an increase of 32.
    9% over the same period last year
    .
     
      According to ANEC, the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association, Brazil’s soybean exports in July 2021 may reach 8.
    45 million tons, which is lower than last week’s estimate of 9.
    44 million tons, but higher than the 8.
    03 million tons in July last year
    .
    Soybean exports in June this year were 10.
    13 million tons
    .
    Analysts pointed out that the reason for the slowdown in Brazilian soybean exports is that most of the soybeans have already been sold
    .
     
      In Europe, the EU crop monitoring agency MARS released a monthly report.
    The EU rapeseed yield forecast for 2021 was lowered to 3.
    19 tons/ha, lower than the June forecast of 3.
    23 tons/ha, but still 4.
    8% higher than the five-year average.

    .
    Heavy rains and floods occurred in several Western European countries this month, raising concerns about crop damage
    .
    However, MARS said that although rainy weather hindered the harvest of winter crops, the impact on yields was limited
    .
    In eastern Romania, rains that last until the end of June may accelerate the spread of pests and diseases, thereby reducing crop quality
    .
     
      In terms of the planting area for the next year, the soybean planting area in Brazil is expected to increase by 2% to 7%, which will also be the 15th consecutive year of growth
    .
    But the situation in Argentina is another matter
    .
    Beijing Derunlin analyst Ping Chuan pointed out that due to factors such as tax differences and yield potential, corn planting yields higher, so farmers continue to increase the corn planting area
    .
     
      The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts that the acreage of soybeans in Argentina will fall to 16.
    7 million hectares (41.
    3 million acres) next year, the lowest level in 15 years
    .
    Farmers in Argentina began planting soybeans in October
    .
    The exchange predicts that the output in 2022 will reach 49 million tons, an increase of 9.
    1% over the current year’s drought caused by the reduction in output
    .
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