Global oilseed market: South American weather worries, oilseed prices continue to rise

Foreign media news on March 7: As of the week of March 5, 2021, the global foodmate.
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Bad weather in the main foodmate.
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foodmate.
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Soybeans need to attract farmers' interest in planting to increase yield, replenish inventory, and meet growing demand.
But foodmate.
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US soybean foodmate.
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　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soybean futures rose approximately 25.
75 cents from a week ago to close at 1,430 cents per bushel.
The average spot price of US No.
1 soybeans was 15.
07625 US dollars per cat, up by about 24 cents from a week ago.
The Euronext exchange's May 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 518.
50 euros/ton, an increase of 27 euros from a week ago.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) May rapeseed futures rose by about 46.
6 Canadian dollars from a week ago to close at 785.
80 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of soybeans in the Shanghe region of Argentina was 532 US dollars (including 33% export tax), down from a week ago 10 USD.
The Shanghe spot price of Argentine soybean meal was US$441 per ton, down about US$14 from a week ago.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported that soybeans closed at 6,285 yuan/ton in May 2021, an increase of 372 yuan from a week ago.

 

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 91.
99 points, up 1.
2% from a week ago.

 

　　Rain in Brazil affects harvest and exports, dry weather in Argentina

 

　　The market pays close attention to the weather in South America, especially Argentina.
The Commodity Weather Group (CWG) predicted on Friday that in the next 10 days, 30% of the soybean acreage in Argentina may encounter dry weather, resulting in a serious loss of soybean yield.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that if there is still no significant rainfall in the main producing areas in the next few weeks, the forecast for soybean production in Argentina may be lowered.
The exchange currently estimates that Argentina’s soybean production is 46 million tons.

 

　　In Brazil, the rainy weather in soybean-producing areas continues to slow down soybean harvest and damage crop quality.
Sylvano Felipeto, president of the Brazilian Agricultural Union, said that the impact of rainfall was great.
It is not yet possible to know the extent of the damage, only when the harvester can enter the farmland.
But the degree of loss should exceed 10%.
The meteorological agency predicts that Brazil’s soybean-producing areas will remain rainy for some time to come.
As of February 25, Brazil's soybean harvest has been completed by 25%, which is far behind the 40% in the same period of the previous year and the slowest harvest in the same period in the past 10 years.

 

　　China's soybean imports slow down

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending February 25, US soybean net sales for 2020/21 were 334,000 tons, which was 33% lower than the four-week average because sales to unknown destinations were cancelled by 351,400.
Ton.
The net sales of soybeans in 2021/22 were 199,000 tons, almost all of which were sold to China.
The total US soybean export sales in 2020/21 so far are 60.
15 million tons, an increase of 76.
8% year-on-year.

 

　　It is worth mentioning that as of February 25, China has not purchased American Chen beans for three consecutive weeks.
This aspect is related to the Spring Festival holiday, but also because of the loss of domestic crushing net profits, resulting in Chinese crushers still not interested after the Spring Festival.
Actively purchase.
The outbreak of a new type of African swine fever in some provinces in China has also affected the feed demand for soybean meal.
The Ministry of Agriculture of China stated on March 6 that an outbreak of African swine fever has occurred in major pig-raising provinces such as Sichuan and Hubei.
Earlier this week, a new swine fever epidemic broke out in Yunnan.

 

　　Most analysts believe that the current slowdown in soybean demand in China is a seasonal trend, and the number of live pigs after the Spring Festival has been greatly reduced, because a large number of live pigs are slaughtered before the holiday to meet the holiday demand.

 

　　Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Sunday showed that China's soybean imports in the first two months of this year were slightly lower than the level of the same period last year because of the delay in exports due to rain in Brazil.
From January to February, China's soybean imports reached 13.
41 million tons, a decrease of 0.
8% from 13.
51 million tons in the same period last year.

 

　　Next week, the USDA may slightly lower global soybean ending stocks

 

　　On Tuesday, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release its March monthly supply and demand report.
Analysts predict that this report may show that global soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 will be 3.
037 billion bushels, slightly lower than last month's forecast.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture may lower its forecast for soybean production in Argentina.
The current forecast is 48 million tons.