Global oilseed market: U.S. Gulf exports are gradually recovering, macro concerns fade, oilseeds rise

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures rose approximately 1 cent or 0.
1% from a week ago to close at 1285 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$13.
57 per cat (US$498.
6 per ton), down 1.
5 cents or 0.
11% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at approximately 619.
50 euros/ton, an increase of 18.
75 euros or 3.
1% from a week ago
.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed period rose by 14.
2 Canadian dollars or 1.
6% from a week ago to close at 887.
90 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was 553 US dollars (including 33% export tax) ), an increase of $7 or 1.
28% over a week ago
.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybeans closed at 6,023 yuan/ton in November, up 67 yuan or 1.
1% from a week ago
.

 

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
28 points, up 0.
1% from a week ago
.
The global financial market was turbulent at the beginning of the week because of concerns that the prospect of default by a large Chinese real estate group might spread to other markets
.
However, market concerns subsided and investors' risk appetite rebounded
.

 

　　After Hurricane Ida swept the US Gulf at the end of August, the situation in the US Gulf area continued to improve this week.
Most export terminals have resumed loading and unloading to a certain extent, and almost all facilities have restored power supply.
This has made agricultural exports more than in previous weeks.
Recovery, but still below normal levels
.
The weekly export inspection report issued by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday showed that as of the week of September 16, the US soybean export inspection volume was 10.
1 million bushels, an increase of 42% from a week ago
.
The total export inspection so far this year is 18.
3 million cats, which is still much lower than the same period last year
.

 

　　According to the monthly report issued by the International Grain Council (IGC), the global soybean production in 2021/22 is expected to be 380 million tons, which is the same as the previous month’s forecast and an increase of 5% over the previous year
.

 

　　The weekly crop progress report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday showed that as of September 19, the US soybean harvest was 6% completed, higher than the 5% expected by analysts, 5% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 6% in the same period
.
The excellent and good rate of soybeans was 58%, higher than 57% a week ago and 63% in the same period last year
.
A weather report issued by the US Department of Agriculture on Friday showed that sporadic rains in the northern part of the corn belt caused slight delays in field operations; corn and soybean harvests in parts of the eastern corn belt were suspended due to rains from September 20 to 23 After that, the fields were very muddy
.
From Saturday to Monday, the weather is dry in most parts of the Midwest
.
The 6 to 10 day weather forecast shows that the weather is mostly dry from Wednesday to Saturday
.

 

　　The National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (NASS) of the United States Department of Agriculture estimated in its September crop yield report that the U.
S.
soybean yield will reach 50.
6 bushes per acre in 2021, which is 0.
6 bushes higher than the previous month's forecast.
The forecast for soybean production is raised by 35 million bushes to 43.
7.
Billion po
.
This week, IHS Markit, a private analyst firm, predicts that US soybean production will reach 4.
381 billion bushels in 2021, which is higher than the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture
.

 

　　At the same time as the United States is harvesting soybeans, farmers in South America are beginning to plant soybeans in the year of 2021/22.
At present, the weather in most parts of Brazil is hot and dry, and soil moisture is insufficient.
It will not be fully launched until next month
.
According to data from the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) of Parana State, Brazil’s second largest soybean-producing region, as of September 20, 3% of soybean planting has been completed in Parana State, an increase of 2% from a week ago
.

 

　　Consulting agency Datagro this week predicted that South American soybean production in 2020/22 will reach 211.
94 million tons, an increase of 7% from the adjusted 2020/21 output of 197.
7 million tons
.
The planting area of ​​soybeans in South America in 2021/22 will reach 62.
75 million hectares, which is 2% higher than the adjusted harvest area of ​​61.
43 million hectares in 2020/21, which may be a record high
.
Brazil's soybean production in 2021/22 is expected to reach 144.
07 million tons, an increase of 5% from the record high of 13697 million tons set this year
.
Argentina's soybean production is expected to reach 51.
27 million tons, which is 13% higher than the level of production cuts this year
.

 

　　Analysts pointed out that the capital situation of Argentine farmers has become worse this year.
In addition to the difficulty in buying production materials, they are also facing the impact of inclement weather
.
There are signs that the delivery of production materials is facing long delays
.
The Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) research report shows that the sown area of ​​soybeans in Argentina in 2020/2021 is expected to be 16.
2 million hectares, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 500,000 hectares, the lowest area in 15 years
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending September 16, US soybean net sales for the year 2021/22 were 902,900 tons (of which 624,200 tons were sold to China), down from 1,264,200 tons a week ago
.
So far in 2021/22, the total export sales of US soybeans has reached 23,192,400 tons, a decrease of 34.
5% over the same period of the previous year
.
The report also shows that in the week ending September 16, the United States sold 624,000 tons of new beans to China (Mainland China) for delivery in 2020/22
.
For comparison, the United States sold 945,000 tons of new beans to China in the previous week
.

 

　　US soybean meal prices fell this week because of limited export capacity
.
Exports of the western coastal terminal, which handles nearly 20% of US soybean meal exports this week, are restricted.
The collapsed grain depot at the beginning of this month is still being repaired.
The repair work may take several months.
This marks the latest setback in the global soybean meal trade flow
.
The interruption caused the global soybean meal supply chain to once again be in trouble
.
At the end of August, Hurricane Ida caused chaos in exports to the U.
S.
Gulf (the busiest agricultural export port in the United States)
.
Analysts pointed out that this could lead to trouble for importing countries like the Philippines
.
Soybean meal prices have fallen 1.
9% so far this month
.
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending September 16, 2021, the US 2020/21 net soybean meal sales were 45,000 tons, a decrease of 53% from last week and a decrease of 24% from the four-week average
.

 

　　At the same time, the pace of Brazilian soybean meal exports is higher than previously expected
.
The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters ANEC stated on September 21 that Brazil’s soybean meal exports in September may reach 1.
710 million tons, higher than last week’s forecast of 1.
561 million tons
.
If the forecast becomes a reality, Brazil's soybean meal exports from January to September this year will reach 13.
011 million tons
.
From January to August this year, Brazil’s soybean meal exports were 11.
387 million tons, higher than 11.
738 million tons in the same period last year
.

 

　　In China, dozens of soybean crushing plants stopped production, mainly in Jiangsu and Tianjin, because the local government restricted the power supply to the industry in order to achieve strict energy consumption dual control goals
.

 

　　In India, veteran trader Patel predicts that India’s soybean production may increase to 10 million tons in 2020/22, which is higher than the 8.
9 million tons in 2020/21 due to favorable rainfall in the main producing areas
.
For comparison, the Ministry of Agriculture of India estimates that soybean production in the year of 202.
22 million will be 12.
72 million tons
.

 

　　On September 30, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release a grain inventory report
.