Global oilseed market: US soybean demand slows down seasonally, oilseed prices fluctuate

News from May 30: As of the week of May 28, 2021, prices in the global oilseed market have risen and fallen.
Demand for soybeans in the United States has slowed seasonally, putting potential pressure on soybean prices.
However, the current supply of soybeans is extremely tight, which means that the production of new soybeans cannot be missed, and the price of soybeans retains a risk premium.
Although South American new soybeans are currently on the market in batches, strikes and logistics bottlenecks still interfere with soybean exports from time to time .

 

　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soybean futures rose approximately 4.
25 cents from a week ago to close at 1,530.
50 cents per bushel.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was 16.
025 US dollars per cat (588.
8 US dollars per ton), up 4.
25 cents or 0.
27% from a week ago.
The Euronext exchange's August 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 519.
75 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton from a week ago.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) July rapeseed futures rose by about 6.
8 Canadian dollars from a week ago to close at 890 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of soybeans in the Shanghe region of Argentina was 550 US dollars (including 33% export tax), which was higher than a week ago 10 USD.
The Shanghe spot price of Argentine soybean meal was 401 US dollars per ton, down 18 US dollars from a week ago.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's September soybean closed at 5,730 yuan/ton, down 207 yuan from a week ago.

 

　　U.
S.
soybean planting progress continues to lead historical average

 

　　The National Crop Progress Weekly Report issued by the US Department of Agriculture shows that the soybean planting progress in the United States this year is higher than the average progress of previous years.
As of May 23, the US soybean planting progress was 75%, last week 61%, last year 63%, and the five-year average for the same period was 54%.
Soybean seedling rate was 41%, 20% last week, 33% in the same period last year, and 25% in the past five years.
The weather conditions in the Midwestern United States this week are generally conducive to the initial growth of crops, including a wide range of rainfall activities and suitable temperatures.

 

　　The pace of U.
S.
soybean exports slows seasonally

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending May 20, 2021, US soybean net sales for 2020/21 were 55,900 tons, which was 34% lower than last week and 65% lower than the four-week average.
The net sales volume in 2021/22 was 248,300 tons, and the sales volume a week ago was 96,000 tons.
As of the week of May 20, China bought 20,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in the 2020/22 season.
So far in 2020/21, US soybean export sales totaled 61.
6 million tons, an increase of 46.
7% over the same period last year.

 

　　Brazil's soybean harvest is over, and exports increase by 20% year-on-year

 

　　In Brazil, the soybean harvest is almost over.
In the first three weeks of May, Brazil has exported about 12.
6 million tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 842,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.
5%.

 

　　Market rumors last week that China bought less than 15 ships of Brazilian soybeans.
To achieve the forecast of 100 million tons of soybeans imported by China this year, China needs to buy an average of 40 ships of soybeans every week.
As the pace of Chinese purchases has slowed, it continues to put pressure on Brazilian soybean prices.

 

　　Argentine port strike ends, soybean production forecasts are raised

 

　　Argentina has been plagued by strikes recently.
Following a 48-hour strike by tugboat owners and port workers last week, a 48-hour strike was held this week.
However, after the government agreed to include strikers on the vaccination priority list, the strike ended a day earlier.

 

　　The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its forecast for 2020/21 soybean production in Argentina by 500,000 tons to 43.
5 million tons on May 27, due to improved soybean yields.
For comparison, the exchange's initial production forecast was 46.
5 million tons.
Last year's output was 49 million tons, and the previous year's output was 55 million tons.

 

　　Both the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture and the Argentine Department of Agriculture predict 47 million tons of current Argentine soybean production.

 

　　According to the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, as of May 19, Argentine farmers have sold 19.
4 million tons of 2020/21 soybeans, an increase of 975,500 tons from the previous week, but lower than the sales volume of 23.
2 million tons in the same period last year.
Despite the high price of soybeans, the peso continues to depreciate, causing farmers to reluctantly sell soybeans and regard soybeans as a hard currency against inflation.

 

　　The European Commission raises the forecast value of rapeseed production for the next year

 

　　On May 27, the European Commission issued a monthly report, raising the forecast value of rapeseed production for the 27 EU countries in 2021/22 to 16.
7 million tons, which is still 2.
1% higher than the previous year, but 5.
0% lower than the five-year average.
.
The forecast value of rapeseed imports remains unchanged at 5.
8 million tons.

 

　　The 2020/21 EU rapeseed import forecast has been raised to 6.
2 million tons, higher than the 6 million tons predicted last month.

 

　　In terms of other oilseeds, the EU sunflower seed production in 2021/22 is expected to be 10.
67 million tons, which is higher than the 8.
88 million tons in the previous year and 10.
0% higher than the five-year average.

 

　　U.
S.
soybean crush will be reduced by 9% month-on-month in May

 

　　Next Tuesday (June 2) the US Department of Agriculture will release the oilseed crush report.
Analysts expect this report to show that the US soybean crush is 5.
133 million tons, a decrease of 9% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 7% due to the seasonality of crushing plants.
Suspension of production and maintenance caused the processing volume to slow down.
In addition, the tight supply of soybeans also affects the scale of soybean crush.
In recent months, domestic soybean processing plants and exporters in the United States have fiercely competed for a limited supply of soybeans.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that US soybean stocks at the end of August will only be able to meet demand for less than 10 days.
In comparison, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) announced a 10% month-on-month reduction in soybean crush in April.

 

　　IGC expects global soybean production to increase, but stocks will continue to fall

 

　　The International Grains Council (IGC) estimated in its May report that global soybean production in 2020/21 will be 361 million tons, an increase of 7% year-on-year.
Due to record consumption and declining imports, global soybean ending stocks are expected to decline for the second consecutive year.
Global soybean production in 2021/22 is expected to increase to 383 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, because soybean prices hit a multi-year high, which will help encourage farmers to expand planting acreage.