Global oilseed market: US soybean production is lower than expected, oilseed prices rise

Foreign media news on November 14: In the week ending November 12, 2021, global oilseed prices have risen, mainly due to the strong supply and demand data released by the US Department of Agriculture in November, and the global vegetable oil market has risen strongly
.
However, the prospects for soybean production in South America are bright, and China's demand is uncertain, restricting the rising trend of the oilseed market
.

 

　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) January 2022 soybean futures rose by approximately 38.
75 cents or 3.
2% from a week ago, to close at 1,244.
25 cents per cat
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was 13.
04125 US dollars per pu (464.
2 US dollars per ton), an increase of 40.
75 US cents or 3.
23% from a week ago
.
On the Euronext exchange, the rapeseed futures in February 2022 closed at approximately 710.
25 Euros/ton, up 25.
25 Euros or 3.
7% from a week ago
.
The January rapeseed period of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 51.
40 Canadian dollars or 5.
3% from a week ago to close at 1025.
30 Canadian dollars/ton; Argentina’s Shanghe soybean FOB spot price was 543 US dollars (including 33% export tax).
A week ago it rose by $13 or 2.
45%
.
The January soybean settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,436 yuan/ton, down 27 or 0.
4% from a week ago
.

 

　　The U.
S.
and British central banks' super release of water triggers a surge in inflationary pressures

 

　　According to data from the US Department of Labor, the US consumer price index rose 6.
2% in October from a year ago, the fastest increase in 31 years
.
Even so, the Fed still insists that inflation is only temporary and that it is not in a hurry to raise interest rates
.
However, the market has already responded, and the prices of commodities, including agricultural products, have mostly risen
.

 

　　U.
S.
soybean production unexpectedly lowered

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the U.
S.
soybean yield and output forecasts in its November supply and demand report, which brought positive support to the oilseed market
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that the U.
S.
soybean production in 2021 will be 4.
425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 51.
2 bushels per acre, both lower than analysts’ forecasts of 4.
484 billion bushels and 51.
9 bushels per acre, and also lower than the government’s forecast of 4.
448 billion bushels in October.
51.
5 bu/acre
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for global oilseed production in 2021/22 from 628.
2 million tons last month to 62803 million tons, an increase of only 4.
1% over the previous year
.
This is mainly because the global soybean production forecast for 2021/22 is revised down by 1.
1 million tons to 384 million tons
.
As the yield of soybean planting is lower than that of corn, and the scale of planting has declined, Argentina's soybean production data has been revised down by 1.
5 million tons to 49.
5 million tons
.
The global soybean ending stock data is revised down by 800,000 tons to 103.
8 million tons
.

 

　　Rapeseed continues to play a leading role

 

　　The rapeseed market is still the star of the oilseed market this week.
Tight supply and strong demand have prompted speculative funds to continue to increase their holdings in the rapeseed market on the ICE exchange, pushing prices to new highs
.
The rapeseed market needs to increase prices to ensure that farmers have a variety of rapeseeds next year, replenish depleted stocks, and at the same time limit current demand to avoid the depletion of rapeseed supply
.
According to data released by the Canadian Grain Council on Friday, during the 14th week of the 2021/22 season, from November 1 to 7, Canada’s rapeseed exports were 247,900 tons, which was higher than the 111,500 tons a week ago
.
So far this year, the total export volume of rapeseed has reached 1.
8037 million tons, a decrease of 47.
1% over the same period of the previous year
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture estimates that the global rapeseed stocks for the year of 2021/22 are 4.
051 million tons, which means that the stock-to-use ratio is only 5.
8%, the lowest since 2003/04, when the stock-to-use ratio was 5.
6%
.
Canada's rapeseed exports are reduced by 600,000 tons, 46% less than in 2020/21, and it is also the lowest export volume since 2007/08
.
Canada’s ending stocks are lowered by 100,000 tons to 600,000 tons, which is close to the 500,000 tons forecast by the Canadian Department of Agriculture
.

 

　　U.
S.
soybean exports remain faltering

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending November 4, 2021, US soybean net sales for the year 2021/22 were 1,289,400 tons, a decrease of 31% from last week and a decrease of 25% from the four-week average
.
So far this year, the total US soybean export sales have reached 33,293,400 tons, a decrease of 33.
2% from the same period last year.
This reflects the weakening demand in China, the number one importing country, due to the loss of China's pig industry and the meager crushing profits
.
In the November supply and demand report, the US Department of Agriculture lowered China's soybean imports for 2021/22 to 100 million tons, which is 1 million tons lower than last month's forecast and slightly higher than the 99.
76 million tons in the previous year
.

 

　　According to customs data, China's soybean imports in October 2021 were only 5.
11 million tons, a decrease of 25.
7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 41.
2%, which is also the lowest since March 2020
.
The reason for the decline in imports is that the meager profit of domestic soybean crushing has slowed down demand from oil plants, and Hurricane Ida interrupted the operation of U.
S.
Gulf export facilities for several weeks, which also restricted U.
S.
soybean exports to China
.
However, the Hamburg Analysis Agency of Germany predicts that China's soybean imports in November may rebound strongly to 8.
5 million to 9.
5 million tons
.
The recent improvement in China's soybean crush profits has helped restore import demand
.

 

　　The weather in South America has been generally good so far this year, and the dryness of southern Brazil in the next two weeks is causing concern

 

　　The weather situation in the agricultural production areas of South America is generally good.
Rain and clear weather alternated in the past week, which helped the planting progress
.
According to the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), as of November 6, Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean planting progress was 67.
3%, up from 53.
5% a week ago
.
The planting progress in the same period last year was only 55.
1%, because the dry weather at that time affected the planting
.
The second production forecast released by CONAB shows that Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 is expected to be 142009 million tons, an increase of 3.
4% from the previous year’s 13732 million tons, due to the expected increase in planting area and yield
.

 

　　The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) first released the 2022 soybean production forecast report that the Brazilian soybean output in 2022 is expected to reach a record 144.
1 million tons, which is higher than the 138 million tons in 2021 because soybean farms sell well.
Encourage farmers to increase the planting area, and the output is expected to increase
.

 

　　Analyst agency AgRural recently estimated that Brazil’s soybean production in 201/22 reached a record 144.
3 million tons
.
Analyst agency Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 will reach a record 144.
7 million tons, which is 2.
5 million tons higher than the previous forecast
.

 

　　The weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) stated that in the week ending November 10, 2021, soybean planting progress in Argentina was 18.
8%, an increase of 11.
6% from a week ago
.
The exchange estimates that the planting area of ​​soybeans in Argentina this year is 16.
5 million hectares, which is lower than the 16.
9 million hectares in 2020/21 because of higher income from corn planting in Argentina
.
The exchange estimates that soybean production in 2021/2022 will be 44 million tons, higher than the previous year's 43.
1 million tons
.