Global share of wind and solar power expected to increase to 45% by 2040

According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the share of global wind and solar power generation will rise from 7% to 45% by 2040, and increasing the flexibility of electricity supply is especially important
to ensure power supply security.

According to the IEA, the decarbonization transition in the energy sector, the rapid growth of variable renewable energy, digitalization expanding the opportunities for cyberattacks, and climate change leading to more extreme weather events all pose serious challenges
to the security of electricity supply.

In recent years, in order to meet the goal of reducing emissions, countries have been increasing the deployment of renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaic and wind power, so that they can increase the amount of electricity generated by fossil fuel plants and nuclear facilities in the coming period
.

The IEA believes that wind, solar PV and wind will dominate a diversified supply mix
supported by other low-carbon generation technologies.
This must include demand response and storage, as well as digitalization and electricity market interconnection
.
"Natural gas and coal will continue to play a role, especially in developing countries
such as India.
Failure to achieve generation levels for other low-carbon technologies, such as nuclear and biomass, in the hypothetical scenario will result in additional costs and challenges
.
”

However, for wind and solar technologies, further acceleration of growth to levels that can compensate for other low-carbon generation shortfalls will be extremely challenging
.
In addition, existing scenarios provide a purely techno-economic view without taking into account the social recognition or political factors associated with other wind turbines, nuclear facilities, fossil fuel plants, and new overhead transmission lines, all of which may complicate
achieving optimal low carbon emissions.

Research shows that the transition to clean energy will bring significant structural changes to power systems worldwide, with renewable generation already surging
over the past decade.
According to the IEA's Sustainable Development Plan, the average annual share of variable renewables in total electricity generation will reach 45%
by 2040.

By 2040, this will mean that electricity will surpass oil to become the world's largest energy source, wind and solar will rise from 7% to 45% of global electricity generation, and all renewable energy combined will exceed 70%.

But "growing in tandem with the expansion of solar and wind" will require new, additional flexibility in resources, especially in
emerging and developing economies where electricity demand is growing strongly, the report said.

Although supply and demand are more variable, maintaining reliability will mean more investment in networks and flexible resources (both demand-side, distributed, and stored) to ensure that the power system is flexible and diverse enough to respond
.