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    Home > Food News > Food Articles > Global wheat market: European and American wheat production prospects improve, wheat prices fall

    Global wheat market: European and American wheat production prospects improve, wheat prices fall

    • Last Update: 2021-06-04
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    News from May 30: In the week ending May 28, 2021, most of the global wheat prices fell due to good rains in the wheat-producing regions of the Great Plains in the United States and improved prospects for wheat crop production in Europe, helping to alleviate the adverse weather in the previous weeks The production worries brought about.
     
    On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soft red winter wheat futures fell about 10.
    75 cents from a week ago to close at 663.
    50 cents per bushel.
    The July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at approximately 613.
    25 cents per bushel, down 10.
    75 cents from a week ago.
    The July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about 727.
    50 cents per bushel, down 27 cents from a week ago.
    Euronext's September 2021 milling wheat period reported approximately 211.
    25 euros/ton, which was 1.
    5 euros lower than a week ago.
    The spot price of Argentine wheat was 273 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from a week ago, FOB prices.
    The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in September 2021 closed at about 2,778 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from a week ago.
     
      Rainfall in the plains of the United States is expected to help ease crop concerns
     
      The US Meteorological Prediction Center (CPC) predicts that this weekend will see rainy weather in most parts of the Great Plains and corn belts in the United States.
    Some areas of the Central Plains may experience 2 to 4 inches of rain and the temperature will be lower than normal.
    However, the rain may miss the driest spring wheat producing areas in the northern and northwestern regions of the Great Plains.
    From June 1 to 5, temperatures in the southern plains of the United States and the lower Mississippi River may be lower than normal, and precipitation may be higher than normal.
     
      The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 23, the proportion of good quality winter wheat was 47%, down from 48% a week ago and 54% in the same period last year.
    What needs to be pointed out is that in Kansas, the number one winter wheat producing area, the excellent and good rate of winter wheat has increased to 55%, which is higher than 54% a week ago.
    The excellent and good rate of winter wheat in Texas is stable at 25%.
    But Oklahoma's winter wheat good and good rate decreased by 8 points to 51%.
    The spring wheat good rate data released for the first time this week is 45%, and there is no comparable data from last week and the same period last year.
    94% of spring wheat planting was completed.
    The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture currently estimates that U.
    S.
    wheat production in 2021/22 will be 1.
    872 billion bushels, an increase of 2.
    5% from 2020/21.
     
      Forecasts for wheat production in the 27 EU countries are raised
     
      According to the monthly report of the European Commission on May 27, the EU soft wheat production in the 2021/22 season is expected to be 126.
    2 million tons, which is 1.
    4 million tons higher than the April forecast and 6.
    5 percentage points higher than the 2020/21 season.
    The ending stocks of the European Union for 2021/22 were also reduced to 10.
    8 million tons, which was 600,000 tons lower than the April forecast because of the 1 million tons increase in the use of wheat feed.
    Wheat exports are expected to be 30 million tons, the same as the April forecast.
     
      The EU crop monitoring agency MARS also raised the forecast value of wheat yield in the EU27 countries in its monthly report released on May 25, as the prospects for winter crop production in countries such as France and Romania have improved.
    MARS forecast this month that the EU soft wheat yield is 5.
    91 tons/ha, higher than the 5.
    86 tons/ha forecast in April, and also higher than the average yield of 5.
    69 tons/ha in the past five years.
     
      Canadian government cuts wheat production by 1.
    7 million tons
     
      The Canadian Department of Agriculture and Food (AAFC) released a report, reducing the wheat production in 2021/22 by 1.
    7 million tons to 31.
    1 million tons due to extreme drought in most parts of Western Canada.
    All wheat ending stock forecasts are revised down by 1 million tons to 5.
    05 million tons, which will be the lowest level in 14 years.
     
      U.
    S.
    wheat exports remain sluggish
     
      The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending May 20, the US’s 2020/21 net wheat sales were 29,500 tons, 76% lower than last week and 58% lower than the four-week average.
    The total US wheat export sales in 2020/21 so far are 25.
    68 million tons, a decrease of 4.
    1% year-on-year.
     
      International Grains Council expects global wheat production to increase in 2021/22
     
      The May Grain Market Report issued by the International Grain Council (IGC) shows that although the total global cereal production in 2021/22 will increase by 72 million tons year-on-year, cereal stocks will fall for the fifth consecutive year.
    The IGC expects total grain production to be 2.
    292 billion tons, which is higher than the downward revision of 2.
    22 billion tons for 2020/21.
    Due to the lower inventory at the beginning of the period, the impact of global production growth was partially offset.
     
      As far as wheat supply and demand are concerned, IGC expects that the output of the 2021/22 season will be 790.
    4 million tons, which is basically the same as last month's forecast and higher than the 774.
    3 million tons of the previous year.
    The ending inventory is expected to be 288 million tons, lower than the 298 million tons predicted last month, but higher than the 285 million tons last year.
     
      Russia will implement new floating tariffs next week
     
      From June 2nd, Russia will implement a new permanent formula for taxation.
    According to the new tariffs announced by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture on Friday, the wheat export tariff for the week from June 2 to 8 is 28.
    1 US dollars per ton, which is far lower than the current 50 euros (61 US dollars) per ton.
     
      The Moscow Exchange determines the reference price for calculating tariffs based on the prices reported by traders, and then the Russian Ministry of Agriculture calculates the tariffs based on this reference price every week, specifically by subtracting US$200 from the reference price of wheat, and then multiplying by 70%.
    The export tax formula for barley and corn is based on the base price minus US$185 instead of US$200.
    Wheat prices United States
     
      On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soft red winter wheat futures fell about 10.
    75 cents from a week ago to close at 663.
    50 cents per bushel.
    The July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at approximately 613.
    25 cents per bushel, down 10.
    75 cents from a week ago.
    The July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about 727.
    50 cents per bushel, down 27 cents from a week ago.
    Euronext's September 2021 milling wheat period reported approximately 211.
    25 euros/ton, which was 1.
    5 euros lower than a week ago.
    The spot price of Argentine wheat was 273 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from a week ago, FOB prices.
    The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in September 2021 closed at about 2,778 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from a week ago.
     
      Rainfall in the plains of the United States is expected to help ease crop concerns
     
      The US Meteorological Prediction Center (CPC) predicts that this weekend will see rainy weather in most parts of the Great Plains and corn belts in the United States.
    Some areas of the Central Plains may experience 2 to 4 inches of rain and the temperature will be lower than normal.
    However, the rain may miss the driest spring wheat producing areas in the northern and northwestern regions of the Great Plains.
    From June 1 to 5, temperatures in the southern plains of the United States and the lower Mississippi River may be lower than normal, and precipitation may be higher than normal.
     
      The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 23, the proportion of good quality winter wheat was 47%, down from 48% a week ago and 54% in the same period last year.
    What needs to be pointed out is that in Kansas, the number one winter wheat producing area, the excellent and good rate of winter wheat has increased to 55%, which is higher than 54% a week ago.
    The excellent and good rate of winter wheat in Texas is stable at 25%.
    But Oklahoma's winter wheat good and good rate decreased by 8 points to 51%.
    The spring wheat good rate data released for the first time this week is 45%, and there is no comparable data from last week and the same period last year.
    94% of spring wheat planting was completed.
    The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture currently estimates that U.
    S.
    wheat production in 2021/22 will be 1.
    872 billion bushels, an increase of 2.
    5% from 2020/21.
     
      Forecasts for wheat production in the 27 EU countries are raised
     
      According to the monthly report of the European Commission on May 27, the EU soft wheat production in the 2021/22 season is expected to be 126.
    2 million tons, which is 1.
    4 million tons higher than the April forecast and 6.
    5 percentage points higher than the 2020/21 season.
    The ending stocks of the European Union for 2021/22 were also reduced to 10.
    8 million tons, which was 600,000 tons lower than the April forecast because of the 1 million tons increase in the use of wheat feed.
    Wheat exports are expected to be 30 million tons, the same as the April forecast.
     
      The EU crop monitoring agency MARS also raised the forecast value of wheat yield in the EU27 countries in its monthly report released on May 25, as the prospects for winter crop production in countries such as France and Romania have improved.
    MARS forecast this month that the EU soft wheat yield is 5.
    91 tons/ha, higher than the 5.
    86 tons/ha forecast in April, and also higher than the average yield of 5.
    69 tons/ha in the past five years.
     
      Canadian government cuts wheat production by 1.
    7 million tons
     
      The Canadian Department of Agriculture and Food (AAFC) released a report, reducing the wheat production in 2021/22 by 1.
    7 million tons to 31.
    1 million tons due to extreme drought in most parts of Western Canada.
    All wheat ending stock forecasts are revised down by 1 million tons to 5.
    05 million tons, which will be the lowest level in 14 years.
     
      U.
    S.
    wheat exports remain sluggish
     
      The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending May 20, the US’s 2020/21 net wheat sales were 29,500 tons, 76% lower than last week and 58% lower than the four-week average.
    The total US wheat export sales in 2020/21 so far are 25.
    68 million tons, a decrease of 4.
    1% year-on-year.
     
      International Grains Council expects global wheat production to increase in 2021/22
     
      The May Grain Market Report issued by the International Grain Council (IGC) shows that although the total global cereal production in 2021/22 will increase by 72 million tons year-on-year, cereal stocks will fall for the fifth consecutive year.
    The IGC expects total grain production to be 2.
    292 billion tons, which is higher than the downward revision of 2.
    22 billion tons for 2020/21.
    Due to the lower inventory at the beginning of the period, the impact of global production growth was partially offset.
     
      As far as wheat supply and demand are concerned, IGC expects that the output of the 2021/22 season will be 790.
    4 million tons, which is basically the same as last month's forecast and higher than the 774.
    3 million tons of the previous year.
    The ending inventory is expected to be 288 million tons, lower than the 298 million tons predicted last month, but higher than the 285 million tons last year.
     
      Russia will implement new floating tariffs next week
     
      From June 2nd, Russia will implement a new permanent formula for taxation.
    According to the new tariffs announced by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture on Friday, the wheat export tariff for the week from June 2 to 8 is 28.
    1 US dollars per ton, which is far lower than the current 50 euros (61 US dollars) per ton.
     
      The Moscow Exchange determines the reference price for calculating tariffs based on the prices reported by traders, and then the Russian Ministry of Agriculture calculates the tariffs based on this reference price every week, specifically by subtracting US$200 from the reference price of wheat, and then multiplying by 70%.
    The export tax formula for barley and corn is based on the base price minus US$185 instead of US$200.
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