Global wheat market: harvest pressure appears, the dollar strengthens, wheat prices fall

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September soft red winter wheat futures fell about 20 cents from a week ago to close at 665.
75 cents per bushel
.
The July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 636.
50 cents per cat, down 22.
25 cents from a week ago
.
The September hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about 766.
25 cents per bushel, up 1.
5 cents from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported about 209.
25 euros/ton, down 1.
75 euros from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat is 273 US dollars/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price
.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in September 2021 closed at about 2,765 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan from a week ago
.

 

　　On Friday, the ICE dollar index closed at 92.
32 points, up 1.
9% from a week ago
.

 

　　Harvesting of winter wheat in the Great Plains of the United States has begun one after another
.
According to the National Crop Progress Weekly Report issued by the US Department of Agriculture, as of June 13, the winter wheat harvest was 4% complete, up from 2% last week, but far below the 14% in the same period last year and the five-year average of 15% over the same period
.
The proportion of winter wheat with good ratings is 48%, which is lower than 50% a week ago and 50% in the same period last year
.
In addition, the excellent and good rate of spring wheat was 37%, 38% last week and 81% in the same period last year
.

 

　　The latest weather forecasts show that this weekend and next week's rain forecasts in the northern Midwest and the Great Plains will ease the drought in some areas
.
However, considering the serious shortage of soil moisture, it means that the crop yield prospects of major producing areas in the United States are still threatened by drought
.
In the past week, droughts in major areas of the U.
S.
agricultural belt have been more severe, threatening the recently planted corn, soybeans and spring wheat crops in Iowa, Minnesota and Dakota
.
Don Gini, a senior agricultural meteorologist at Maxar Meteorological Company, said this will put pressure on local crops, especially spring wheat
.
North Dakota, the top spring wheat producing state, currently has about two-thirds of the region in extreme or super drought (this is also the most severe market category)
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently estimates that all wheat production in the U.
S.
in 2021/22 will be 1.
898 billion cats, an increase of 4% over the previous year
.
Among them, the output of winter wheat is expected to be 1.
309 billion cats, a year-on-year increase of 12%
.
The average price of wheat farms in the United States in 2021/22 is expected to remain unchanged, and is still the highest level in seven years
.

 

　　A survey released this week shows that wheat exports from the three Black Sea countries (Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) are expected to increase in 2021/22, reaching 66 million tons, an increase of 5% year-on-year due to the huge supply of wheat and the increase in global demand.

.
In 2021, wheat production in these three countries will fall by 1% to 124 million tons
.
Russia will remain the world's largest wheat exporter
.

 

　　Last week, the export prices of Russian wheat for the new season fell slightly because of improved prospects for new wheat production
.
Agricultural consulting firm IKAR said that as of June 11, the FOB price of 12.
5% ​​Russian new-season wheat for July shipments at the Black Sea port was US$255 per ton, down US$1 from a week ago
.
Since June, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has gradually increased wheat export tariffs, but they are still lower than the level in May, which helps support Russian wheat exports
.
SovEcon, another consulting company in Moscow, raised Russia's 2021 wheat production forecast by 1.
5 million tons to 82.
4 million tons, because the rains in May improved winter wheat crop conditions in southern Russia
.
Southern Russia is Russia's largest wheat producing area and export area
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that Russia’s wheat production in 2021/22 will be 86 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year’s level, and slightly higher than last month’s forecast, 11% higher than the five-year average
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently estimates that Ukraine’s wheat production in 2021/22 will be 29.
5 million tons, 2% higher than last month’s forecast, 16% higher than the previous year’s output, and 11% higher than the five-year average output
.
The yield of wheat per hectare is expected to be 4.
11 tons per hectare, which is 2% higher than last month’s forecast and 11% higher than the previous year
.