Global wheat market: hot and dry weather in North America, wheat prices rise

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soft red winter wheat futures rose by about 24.
25 cents from a week ago to close at 687.
75 cents per cat.
The July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 636.
50 cents/bus, up 23.
25 cents from a week ago.
The July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 812.
75 cents per bus, up 85.
25 cents from a week ago.
Euronext's September 2021 milling wheat period reported about 214.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 3.
5 euros from a week ago.
The spot price of Argentine wheat is 273 US dollars/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in September 2021 closed at approximately 2,744 yuan, a decrease of 34 yuan from a week ago.

 

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 90.
13 points, up 0.
1% from a week ago.

 

The recent hot and dry weather in the northern plains of the United States and Canadian prairies threatened the growth of local spring wheat, which supported the rise in spring wheat prices.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Center (CPC) predicts that during the five to seven days from June 4, the weather in the central plains of the United States will be dry and the temperature in the northern plains will be relatively high.
In the next 6 to 10 days, the chances of high temperatures in most parts of the United States will increase.
Among them, the northern plains, the northern Midwest, and the northeastern United States are most likely to have high temperatures.
The weather in the American plains is likely to remain dry.

 

The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 30, the heading rate of winter wheat in the United States was 79%, last week 67%, last year 76%, and the five-year average was 78%.
The proportion of excellent winter wheat is 48%, which is higher than 47% a week ago and 51% in the same period last year.
The US spring wheat planting progress is 97%, 94% a week ago, 90% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 93%.
The spring wheat emergence rate was 80%, 66% a week ago, 65% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 73%.
The excellent and good rate of spring wheat was 43%, 45% last week and 80% in the same period last year.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending May 27, 2021, net wheat sales in the United States for 2020/21 decreased by 33,300 tons, which was significantly lower than last week and the four-week average.
So far this year, the total US wheat export sales have reached 25,645,100 tons, a decrease of 4.
8% from the same period last year.

 

　　In stark contrast to the decline in wheat production in North America, the outlook for Russia’s cereal production, including wheat, has improved.
Consulting agency IKAR this week raised the forecast of wheat production in Russia in 2021 to 79.
5 million tons, which is 500,000 tons higher than the earlier forecast, due to the improved weather in the southern region and an increase in the sown area of ​​spring wheat in the central region.
The Minister of Agriculture of Russia stated on June 3 that Russia may raise the forecast value of cereal production because planting is progressing well.
He predicts that Russia’s cereal production may reach 127.
4 million tons, including 81 million tons of wheat production.
As planting and harvesting unfold, he expects that Russia will increase production forecasts.
According to the analysis agency, as of May 28, the FOB price of new wheat with 12.
5% ​​protein content in Russia at the Black Sea port was US$256 per ton, down US$4 from a week ago, mainly due to improved wheat production prospects.
Russia has implemented a formula-based export tariff policy from June 2nd.
The export tariff from June 2nd to 8th is 28.
10 US dollars/ton, which is much lower than the previous tax rate of 50 euros/ton.
This will help boost Russia in June.
Wheat exports.

 

　　In Ukraine, as of May 28, the FOB export quotations of Ukrainian premium milled soft wheat at Black Sea ports were US$260-265 per ton, and the offer of Ukrainian feed wheat was US$258-263 per ton, both down US$5 from a week ago.
The main reason is that the production outlook is clear.
In early May, APK-Inform stated that Ukraine’s 2021 cereal production forecast remains unchanged at 73.
6 million tons, which is higher than 2020’s 64.
9 million tons.

 

　　IHS Markit, a private organization, predicts that all wheat production in the U.
S.
will be 1.
924 billion cats in 2021/22, compared with 1.
826 billion cats in the previous year, of which winter wheat production is expected to be 1.
3 billion cats and 1.
171 billion cats in the previous year; hard red winter wheat production is expected to be 759 million cats, up The annual output of soft red winter wheat is estimated at 659 million cats; the output of soft red winter wheat is expected to be 335 million cats, compared with 266 million cats last year; the output of white winter wheat is expected to be 261 million cats, compared with 302 million cats last year.
The output of durum wheat is estimated to be 64 million cats, compared with 69 million cats last year.

 

　　In addition, the EU's wheat production in 2021 is expected to be 135 million tons, compared with 125 million tons in the previous year.
Russia's wheat output in 2021 is expected to be 82 million tons, compared with 85 million tons in the previous year; Canadian wheat output is expected to be 32 million tons, compared with 35 million tons in the previous year.
China's wheat production in 2021 is expected to be 136 million tons, compared with 134 million tons in the previous year.