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Global wheat market: Russia may restrict exports, European wheat hit a 14-year high

 Last Update: 2021-12-01
 Source: Internet
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News from foreign media on November 14: In the week ending November 12, 2021, global wheat market prices have risen, and Australian wheat prices have reached record highs.
Wheat prices in Europe and the United States have also reached 14-year and 9-year highs, respectively.
Wheat supply is tight, Russia , the number one exporter, may restrict wheat exports, and global wheat demand remains strong
.
It is worth mentioning that the rise in wheat prices coincides with the emergence of global inflationary pressures, and US inflation has reached its highest level in 31 years
.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December soft red winter wheat futures rose about 50.
5 cents or 6.
6% from a week ago, to close at 817 cents per cat
.
The December hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at approximately 833 cents per bus, up 54.
25 cents or 7% from a week ago
.
The December hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 1,050 cents/bus, up 40.
5 cents from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat period will report approximately 294 Euros/ton, up 11.
25 Euros or 4% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$317/ton, up US$2 or 0.
6% from a week ago, FOB price
.

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 95.
12 points, up 1% from a week ago
.

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report is too large

　　In its November supply and demand report, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for global wheat production for the year 2021/22 by 600,000 tons, to 775.
3 million tons, because the EU, the United Kingdom and Uzbekistan’s output decline exceeded the Russian output increase
.

　　The global wheat ending stocks in 2021/22 are expected to be 275.
8 million tons, lower than the 276.
5 million tons predicted by analysts, and also lower than the 27718 million tons predicted by the government in October, a decrease of 4.
2% year-on-year
.

　　This month, the US Department of Agriculture slightly raised the ending stocks of U.
S.
wheat for 2021/22 to 583 million cats, higher than the 581 million cats predicted by analysts, but still the lowest level since 2007/08; the expected value of U.
S.
wheat exports has been lowered 15 million pu, or 860 million pu
.

　　Russian wheat exports may be restricted

　　Russian Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patushev said at a government meeting this week that if global wheat prices rise sharply, for example, to US$400 per ton or more, the formula for calculating floating tariffs may be revised upwards
.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture will implement a formula tax calculation from June 2 to subtract $200 from the base price of wheat, and then multiply it by 70%
.
The wheat benchmark price in the formula is not the export contract price, but the benchmark price calculated by the Moscow Exchange
.
In addition, Russia also plans to set a grain export quota from January to June 2022
.

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture this week raised its 2021 wheat production forecast for Russia by 2 million tons, from an earlier forecast of 72.
5 million tons to 74.
5 million tons, but it was still 10.
6% less than the previous year
.
Due to the increase in production data, the Russian wheat export data is revised up by 1 million tons to 36 million tons, but it is still 6.
5% lower than the previous year
.

　　The excellent and good rate of U.
S.
winter wheat is 45%

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of November 7, the planting of winter wheat in the United States has completed 91%, which is the same as the five-year average over the same period
.
The proportion of winter wheat with good ratings is 45%, the same as a week ago and the same period last year, but still at a historically low level
.

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending November 4, the US’s 2021/22 net wheat sales were 286,000 tons, a decrease of 29% from last week and the four-week average
.
So far this year, the total US wheat export sales have reached 13.
3 million tons, a decrease of 22.
1% from the same period last year
.

　　Argentina's wheat production is lowered

　　This week, the Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentine wheat production in 202/22 to be 20.
4 million tons, which is lower than the previous forecast of 20.
7 million tons, due to lack of rainfall and hot weather, and Buenos Aires will be the most affected.
Serious
.
The rain this weekend is critical to the final production
.

　　The weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) stated that, as of November 10, the wheat harvest in Argentina for the 2021/22 season had completed 11.
4%
.
Wheat production is expected to reach 19.
98 million tons
.

　　Heavy rains in Australia may cause damage to wheat yields

　　The recent heavy rains in Western Australia may cause damage to the yield and quality of wheat in this main wheat-producing state in Australia
.
The drought in the major wheat producing countries in the northern hemisphere has led to a reduction in wheat production in the United States and Canada, making the market expect that the wheat supply in the southern hemisphere can ease supply tensions
.
Therefore, the heavy rain in Australia raises concerns about the output damage in the southern hemisphere, leading to further tightening of the supply situation
.
However, the weather forecast shows that the weather will turn dry in the coming week
.
Rabobank expects Australia’s wheat exports in 2021/22 to be 24.
5 million tons, close to an all-time high
.

　　Global wheat import demand remains strong

　　Global wheat import demand remains strong
.
According to the Iraqi Ministry of Trade, it will bid for 500,000 tons of wheat in December 2021 or early 2022
.
Tunisia bid for 100,000 tons of soft wheat.
The lowest price is US$380.
30 per ton, CIF price
.
The Philippines bought 50,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia at a CNF price of US$365/ton, with the shipping schedule from December 2021 to January 2022
.

Wheat prices U.
S.
exports

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 95.
12 points, up 1% from a week ago
.

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report is too large

　　Russian wheat exports may be restricted

　　The excellent and good rate of U.
S.
winter wheat is 45%

　　Argentina's wheat production is lowered

　　Heavy rains in Australia may cause damage to wheat yields

　　Global wheat import demand remains strong

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