Global wheat market: The potential escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict increases the risk of wheat prices

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at about $8.
805 a week ago, up 2.
4 percent
from a week ago.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at around $9.
505 a week ago, up 1.
6 percent
from a week ago.
The December hard red spring wheat futures of the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about $9.
4925/pu, up 1.
1 percent
from a week ago.
Euronext's December 2022 period closed at around 346.
25 EUR/mt, up 3.
7% from a week ago; Argentine wheat spot quote at $402/mt, up 0.
5%
from a week ago.
The December dollar exchange rate index of ICE on Friday closed at 112.
962, up 3.
2%
from a week ago.

 

The situation between Russia and Ukraine is likely to escalate

 

Tass reported on Tuesday that the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions will hold a referendum
on joining the Russian Federation from September 23 to 27.
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a national speech on Wednesday, saying he would use all means to defend territorial integrity and sign a partial mobilization order
.
Russia's defense minister said 300,000 reservists
would be recruited.
Analysts believe this marks a short-term sign of an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and is likely to affect Ukraine's grain cultivation and exports
in the coming year.
There is also speculation that Russia may not renew the Black Sea Grain Safety Corridor agreement
, which expires in November.
Fears surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have pushed wheat prices to add to the geopolitical risk hike
.
Russia is the world's number one wheat exporter, and Ukraine is also the world's leading exporter
of cereals.

 

This week's Moscow-based advisory body SovEcon expects a record Russian wheat harvest of a record 100 million tons
this year.
However, the pace of exports remains slow, resulting in a mountain
of domestic wheat.
Although the West says it does not sanction Russian grain exports, Russia's grain exports face constraints
ranging from logistics to insurance and payments.
This means that countries around the world that desperately need wheat will struggle to obtain more Russian wheat supplies
.
The International Council (IGC) sharply raised Russian wheat production by nearly 6 million tons, but did not raise export expectations accordingly, but kept it unchanged
at 36.
5 million tons.

 

The southern plains of the United States remain dry

 

In the United States, the spring wheat harvest is nearing its end
.
According to the USDA Crop Progress Weekly, as of September 18, the U.
S.
spring wheat harvest was 94% complete, compared with 100% in the same period last year and 94%
in the five-year average.
Winter wheat sowing was 21 percent complete, 10 percent a week ago, 20 percent year-on-year, and 17 percent
five-year average.
The emergence rate of winter wheat was 2%, which was the same
as the five-year average.
Recently, drought conditions in the Great Plains have expanded, affecting the initial growth
of crops.
The U.
S.
Drought Monitor weekly report shows that in the week ended September 20, the area of drought in the plains of the United States expanded, with 91.
06% of the area in varying degrees of drought (D0 to D4), up from 88.
72% a week ago and the highest value since March 15, compared with 83.
35%
in the same period last year.

 

At present, international meteorological agencies generally expect the third consecutive year of La Niña in the northern hemisphere winter this year, which means that the southern plains of the United States may experience drought
for the third consecutive year.
Both U.
S.
weather models and European weather models predict drought
in U.
S.
winter wheat growing areas in the fourth quarter.
As of September 18, Kansas was 84 percent of the top soil shortage to very short of soil and 86 percent last week; 82% in Oklahoma, 73% last week; Texas 69%, last week 54%.

 

The IGC significantly raised global wheat production and inventory expectations for 2022/23

 

In its September report, the International Cereals Council (IGC) significantly raised its global wheat production forecast for 2022/23 to 791.
9 million tonnes, up from the previous forecast of 778 million tonnes and higher than the 781.
6 million tonnes
in 2021/22 。 Among them, Australian wheat production was raised to 32.
20 million tons (31 million tons last month, 36.
3 million tons last year), and Canadian production was raised to 34.
7 million tons (33 million tons last month, 22.
3 million tons last year).
EU production was revised up to 133.
3 million tonnes (132.
3 million tonnes last month, 138.
3 million tonnes last year), Russia to 93.
4 million tonnes (87.
6 million tonnes last month, 75 million tonnes prior), Ukraine to 21.
5 million tonnes (19.
4 million tonnes last month, 33 million tonnes last year, and Indian wheat production to 106.
8 million tonnes (105 million tonnes last month; 109.
6 million tonnes last year).

But due to the ongoing severe drought, Argentine wheat production was reduced to 18 million tonnes (18.
5 million tonnes last month; 22.
1 million tons last year
).

 

The IGC's forecast for global wheat exports for 2022/23 remained unchanged at 192.
8 million tonnes, down from 196.
7 million tonnes in the previous year).

The forecast for Australia's wheat exports was raised to 25 million tonnes, up from the previous forecast of 24.
2 million tonnes and 26.
5 million tonnes in 2021/22); Canadian wheat exports rose to 23 million tonnes (22.
8 million tonnes last month; 15.
3 million tons last year
).
India's wheat exports rose to 5.
1 million tonnes (4.
9 million tonnes last month, 8 million tonnes last year) and EU wheat exports fell to 36.
4 million tonnes (3,740 mt.
; 32.
3 million tons last year), Argentine wheat exports are expected to be 12.
5 million tons (13 million tons last month; 15.
5 million tons last year
).

 

Global wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 rose sharply to 285.
6 million tonnes, up from 274.
9 million tonnes forecast in August and 279.
2 million tonnes
in 2021/22 。 Among them, Australian stocks increased to 3.
7 million tonnes (3.
3 million tonnes; 4.
5 million tons), Canadian stocks raised to 5.
2 million tons (4.
7 million tons; 3.
7 million tons); EU stocks increased to 12.
8 million tonnes (11.
4 million tonnes; 16 million tons), Russian stocks increased by 22.
5 million tons (17.
3 million tons; 11.
3 million tons), Ukrainian stocks raised to 7.
6 million tons (5.
9 million tons; 7.
2 million tons in the previous year), and Indian stocks were raised to 16.
8 million tons (15.
2 million tons, 19.
5 million tons
).