Global wheat market: tight supply in major wheat exporting countries

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December soft red winter wheat futures rose about 4.
25 cents or 0.
6% from a week ago, to close at 732.
50 cents per cat
.
The December hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 724 cents per bus, up 8.
25 cents or 1.
2% from a week ago
.
The December hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about 917.
75 cents per bus, up 15.
5 cents and 1.
7% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported about 246.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 2.
25 euros 0.
9% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$291/ton, up US$1 or 0.
3% from a week ago, FOB prices
.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's September 2021 wheat futures closed at approximately RMB 2,729/ton, down 44 RMB or 1.
6% from a week ago
.

 

　　The International Grains Council (IGC) issued a monthly report on August 26, reducing the global wheat production in the 2021/22 season to 781.
7 million tons, which is lower than the 788.
1 million tons predicted last month and only an increase from the previous year’s 773.
4 million tons.
1.
1%
.
Among them, Canadian wheat production has been reduced by 4 million tons, from last month’s forecast of 28.
5 million tons to 24.
5 million tons, which is far lower than last year’s 35.
2 million tons; Russian wheat production has been reduced by 6 million tons, from last month’s forecast of 8100 tons.
The 10,000 tons was lowered to 75 million tons, down from 85.
4 million tons in the previous year
.
U.
S.
wheat production was also revised down to 46.
2 million tons from last month’s forecast of 47.
5 million tons
.
However, wheat production in Australia and Ukraine are raised by 1.
2 million tons and 2.
5 million tons, respectively
.

 

　　In the United States, the winter wheat harvest has ended, and the spring wheat harvest is progressing smoothly
.
As of August 22, the U.
S.
spring wheat harvest progress was 77%, higher than the 46% in the same period last year and the five-year average of 55%
.

 

　　According to the supply and demand report released by the Canadian Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food on Thursday, the output of all wheat in Canada in 2021/22 is expected to be 2017.
9 million tons, which is far lower than the 35.
187 million tons in the previous year, a decrease of 42.
7%
.
Wheat exports will be only half of 2020/21, about 14.
1 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 2.
6 million tons, lower than the 4.
9 million tons predicted in July, and 4.
933 million tons in 2020/21
.

 

　　This week, the European Commission issued a monthly report, lowering the forecast of wheat production in the 27 EU countries for the period of 2021/22 to 127.
2 million tons, which is lower than the 127.
7 million tons predicted last month
.
But still higher than the 117.
2 million tons of last year
.

 

　　From the demand side, the international wheat prices have risen sharply recently, especially in the United States, which has restricted the purchasing interest of overseas buyers
.
The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending August 19, the US’s 2021/22 net wheat sales were 116,000 tons, a yearly low
.
The total US wheat export sales in 2021/22 so far are 9.
128 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.
2%
.
However, it is still the early stage of the 2021/22 season.
Taking into account the reduction in wheat production in Canada and Russia, the production and quality of wheat in France and Germany have also been damaged by the rainy summer weather, which may lead to improved demand for wheat in the United States later this year
.

 

　　In August, Russia's domestic wheat prices soared to the highest level in the same period in history, raising concerns about food price inflation.
The Russian government may take corresponding measures to stabilize food price increases
.
At this time in previous years, as the wheat harvest in Russia went on the market, wheat prices generally tended to fall.
However, this year the price of wheat in Russia has risen, partly because farmers are reluctant to sell it because international wheat prices have risen and the floating tariffs imposed by Russia have brought uncertainty
.
Edward Zernin, chairman of the Russian Grain Exporters Association, said that even if the new wheat harvest is on the market, farmers and traders are unwilling to sell wheat, leading to an increase in domestic wheat prices in Russia
.
If this situation persists for a long time, the government may take more measures to stabilize prices
.

 

　　Reduced wheat production in Russia and rising wheat prices have slowed down the pace of wheat exports
.
According to data from the Russian Federal Plant Quarantine Service (Rosselkhoznadzor), as of August 19, the export volume of Russian wheat in the 2021/22 period (July to June of the following year) was 4.
6 million tons, including exports to countries of the Customs Union.
21% reduction
.

 

　　The bumper wheat harvests in Ukraine and Romania this year have also created fierce competition for Russian wheat, resulting in relatively low sales volume of Russia to the main buyer, the General Merchandise Supply Authority (GASC) of Egypt so far this year
.
Russia’s wheat export tariffs may continue to increase in the next few months, but the specific increase is unpredictable, which makes it difficult for traders to sign sales contracts
.
However, by the end of 2021, the export supply of wheat from Ukraine and Romania will be reduced, and Russia may be more active in the GASC tender by then
.