Global wheat market: US wheat export sales are disappointing

Foreign media news on February 28: In the week ending February 26, 2021, global foodmate.
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foodmate.
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related food information" target="_blank">The quality rate of winter wheat in Kansas, the number one winter wheat producing region in the United States, has declined, and the severe cold weather in major wheat producing regions such as the United States, the Black Sea and Europe is worrying, providing some support for wheat prices.
However, the US wheat foodmate.
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　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soft red winter wheat futures rose about 4.
75 cents from a week ago to close at 660.
25 cents per bushel.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) May hard red winter wheat futures closed at 633.
75 cents per bushel, down 4.
5 cents from a week ago.
The May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about 638.
75 cents per bushel, down 1.
25 cents from a week ago.
Euronext's May 2021 milling wheat period reported about 229.
50 euros/ton, an increase of 2.
25 euros from a week ago.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was 268 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars from a week ago, FOB prices.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in May 2021 closed at 2,738 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan from a week ago.

 

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 90.
93 points, up 0.
7% from a week ago.

 

　　The impact of cold weather on wheat crops is still unknown

 

　　Cold weather has recently appeared in the United States and the northern hemisphere.
Among them, the Midwest and Great Plains of the United States experienced the coldest weather in 126 years, threatening the lack of snow-covered winter wheat, but the specific disaster situation will not be clear until the spring crops return to green.
According to a report on crop status in some states issued by the US Department of Agriculture, as of February 21, the excellent and good rate of winter wheat in Kansas was 40%, down from 43% a month ago.
The excellent and good rate of winter wheat in Oklahoma is 48%, down from 61% a month ago.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will resume the release of the U.
S.
weekly crop rating report in April.

 

　　Recently, the market is also worried that the cold weather in Europe will affect wheat crops.
The EU crop monitoring agency MARS said that most of the farmland is covered with snow, so the impact of the cold wave in January and February on crops is estimated to be limited.
Since the beginning of January, there have been three cold currents in Europe, of which the third cold current is the most serious and has the widest impact.
However, weather forecasts indicate that there may be more severe cold weather in the next ten days, because a blast of cold air will hit eastern Europe.

 

　　U.
S.
wheat export sales hit a new annual low

 

　　In the past week, US wheat futures have retreated from their recent surge as there are signs that high prices may begin to curb demand.
On Thursday and Friday, US wheat fell significantly, mainly because US weekly export sales were lower than expected.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending February 18, the US’s 2020/21 net wheat sales were 167,700 tons, a new annual low, 58% lower than last week and 67% lower than the four-week average.
.
A panamax ship of wheat was shipped to China that week.
So far this year, the total US wheat export sales (including shipped and unshipped) totaled 23.
57 million tons, an increase of 4.
1% over the same period last year.
In the past two weeks, international shipping rates have soared, which has led to a decline in the competitiveness of US wheat in North Africa and the Middle East.

 

　　International Grains Council raises expectations for global wheat production

 

　　The International Grains Council (IGC) released a report on Thursday, raising the forecast for global wheat production in 2020/21 to 773 million tons, 5 million tons higher than earlier expectations.
Australia’s wheat production is expected to be 33.
3 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 31.
2 million tons, and more than double the 15.
2 million tons output from the previous year.
Kazakhstan's wheat production is expected to be 14.
3 million tons, a three-year high, which is higher than the 12.
4 million tons in the previous year.
Russian wheat production has also been raised to 85.
3 million tons, which is higher than the previous forecast of 84.
5 million tons.

 

　　In addition, IGC also predicts that IGC expects global wheat production in 2021/22 to increase by 17 million tons, reaching a record 790 million tons, due to the expected increase in wheat production in Europe, North Africa and India.
Global wheat consumption in 2021/22 is expected to increase to a record high because of the tight supply of alternative grains including corn and barley, and the use of wheat feed is expected to increase.
Nonetheless, the wheat ending stocks in the 2021/22 season are expected to increase further, higher than the all-time high of 294 million tons in the 2020/21 season.
However, IGC pointed out that the increase in inventory will once again be concentrated in China and India.