Global wheat market: wheat prices rose and fell, but the upward trend remained unchanged

Foreign media May 29 news: In the week ended May 27, 2022, global wheat prices rose and fell, with winter wheat falling and spring wheat risi.
.

wheat export sales are sluggish and a bumper crop in Russia is in sight, putting pressure on wheat pric.
However, continued weather concerns in the US, Canada and Europe will help support wheat futures to continue their upward tre.

 

　　July soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around $15750 a bushel on Friday, down 125 cents, or 1%, from a week a.

July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $13525 a bushel, down 15 cents, or 4%, from a week a.

July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $10475 a bushel, up 275 cents, or 2%, from a week a.

Euronext's September 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €4175/tonne, down €6 or 4% from a week earli.

Argentine wheat spot offers were at $475/ton, down $6 or 2% from a week a.

The.


dollar index closed at 10698 on Friday, down 43 percent from a week earli.

 

　　Northern Plains weather unfavorable for spring wheat planting

 

　　The.


Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that 28% of.


winter wheat was rated as excellent, which was 1 percentage point higher than a week ago, but still at a historically low lev.

Spring wheat planting progress is 49%, well below last year's 93% and the five-year average of 8
Planting in North Dakota, the top spring wheat producing state, was the slowest at 27 percent, well behind 93 percent a year earlier and the five-year average of 80 perce.

Minnesota is 11% complete, 100% a year ago, and a five-year average of 9
Rain will disrupt plantings in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota starting Saturday, meaning spring wheat plantings in those regions continue to be hampered, the Commodity Weather Group sa.

 

　.


wheat exports lag behind

 

　　The.


Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed that net sales of wheat in the.


for the 2021/22 season fell by 2,300 tons in the week ended May 19, 2022, hitting a new annual low and significantly lower than last week and the four-week avera.

Net sales in 2022/23 were 246,300 tonnes, down from 325,600 tonnes a week earli.

So far in 2021/22,.


wheat export sales have totaled 143 million tonnes, down 23% from a year earli.

Wheat sales in 2022/23 are 3 million tonnes, down 24% year-on-ye.

The slow pace of.


wheat exports is due to high.


wheat prices and a lack of competitiveness in the international mark.

As of May 25, the FOB quotation of .

2 hard red winter wheat in the US Gulf for the recent shipping schedule was US$525, the quotation of .

2 soft red winter wheat was US$457, the quotation of wheat in the upper river area of ​​Argentina was US$475, and the quotation of milling wheat in the port of Rouen, France was 441 US dollars / t.

 

　　European wheat yields lowered

 

　　The EU crop monitoring agency MARS this week lowered its 2022 soft wheat yield forecast in the EU to 89 t/ha, down from 95 t/ha forecast in April and 5% lower than 2021, but still higher than the five-year average out
The lower yield was due to dry weath.

Growing drought conditions in parts of Europe, including top grain producer France, have rattled marke.

MARS noted that agricultural areas will need significant rainfall in the coming weeks to maintain yield potenti.

However, forecasts suggest warmer and drier-than-normal weather is likely across much of the EU between June and August, potentially exacerbating moisture imbalanc.

 

　　Consultancy Agritel said France was facing its worst drought since 2011, and conditions for the wheat crop had already begun to decli.

Agritel forecasts French wheat yields in 2022 at 8 t/ha, down 5% year-on-year and 7% below the 10-year avera.

Wheat production is expected to reach 33 million tons, down 2% year-on-ye.

The agency pointed out that the reduction in wheat production will prevent France from increasing exports more significant.

 

　　Canada's new wheat production expected to rise, but stocks remain tight

 

　　In its supply and demand report released this week, Agriculture Canada projected 2021/22 Canadian wheat supplies at 221 million tonnes, down 28% from a year earlier, as drought in western Canada led to a poor harvest; exports are forecast at 13 million tonnes, down from a year earlier Over 40%, as exports in the August-March period were only 8 million tonnes, down 41% year-on-ye.

Ending stocks at the end of July are forecast at 3 million tonnes, down 39% year-on-year and the lowest in 2007/0 For 2022/23, Canadian wheat supplies are forecast at 202 million tonnes, up 20% from a year earlier, as plantings increase and yields are expected to return to tre.

Exports are forecast at 15 million tonnes, up 35% year-on-year; ending stocks are forecast at 4 million tonnes, up 33% year-on-year but still 10% below the five-year avera.

 

　　India has no plans to lift wheat export ban

 

　　Last week, India's announcement of a ban on wheat exports caused uproar in the international market, leading to a sharp rise in wheat pric.

Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said at the Davos World Economic Summit that India has no immediate plans to lift the ban on wheat exports, but India will continue to honor the intergovernmental export agreeme.

India on May 14 banned private companies from exporting wheat abroad as domestic wheat prices hit record highs as a March heatwave reduced wheat producti.

According to Gros Intelligence, a consulting and analysis firm, India’s sudden announcement to stop most wheat exports is a sharp turn from the previous Indian government’s efforts to promote expor.

India's ban would tighten global wheat supplies and potentially exacerbate food insecurity in countries that depend on impor.

 

　　Ukrainian grain exports still a long way off

 

　　On May 28, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the Group of Seven (G7) countries are trying to find a way to restore Ukraine's grain expor.

The same day Russian President Vladimir Putin told French and German leaders in a phone call that Russia was willing to discuss ways to allow Ukraine to resume grain exports from Black Sea ports if Western sanctions on Russia were lift.

Putin said Russia was ready to increase exports of fertilizers and agricultural products if sanctions were lifted, a request he made in recent days in conversations with Italian and Austrian leade.

However, neither the US nor the UK apparently have any intention of easing sanctions on Russ.

The European Commission is also working to pass a sixth set of sanctions that includes sanctions on Russian cru.

Against this backdrop, Ukraine's prospects for resuming grain exports from the Black Sea are ble.

 

　　Global weather worries may support wheat prices to remain high

 

　　The long-term outlook for wheat prices remains bullish as global supplies decrease and demand rises, importing countries will have to return to the market by mid-June, and limited supplies may lead to higher prices in order to allow supply to be rationed, with room for price upsi.

Depends on global weather patterns for the next 45 days and 60 da.

France, Europe's top producer, shows no signs of more rain, while in southern Canada and the northern.


(Dakotas and Minnesota), continued rains could reduce North American spring wheat plantings by 1 million to 2 million acr.

.


hard red winter wheat futures are likely to challenge the upper edge of the $12-$16 range against a backdrop of extremely tight global wheat suppli.