Global wheat market: Wheat prices were mixed as Black Sea export agreements were extended

 

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures closed at about $8.
22 a bushel on Friday, down 1.
6 percent
from a week ago.
March hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about $9.
2375/bu, down 2.
1 percent
from a week ago.
The Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) March hard red spring wheat futures closed at about $9.
5875/bu, up 0.
1 percent
from a week ago.
Euronext's December 2022 period closed at around Eur325.
75/mt, down 0.
5% from a week ago, and the March period closed at around Eur321.
00/mt; Argentine wheat spot quotations were at $416/mt, up 1.
2%
from a week ago.
The ICE dollar index closed at 106.
826 on Friday, up 0.
6 percent
from a week ago.

 

Black Sea agreements renewed for 120 days

 

On November 17, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced an agreement to continue the Black Sea Grain Initiative to facilitate safe navigation
of Ukrainian cereal, food and fertilizer exports.
He added that the UN will work fully to remove remaining obstacles to
Russian exports of grain and fertilizers.
This is also the core content
of the agreement signed by Russia.
The 120-day extension of the agreement helped ease concerns about disruptions to Black Sea grain exports, prompting agricultural markets to give back some risk
premiums.
However, the extension of the agreement has not been extended for a year, as Ukraine and Turkey had hoped, nor did it include more Ukrainian ports; At the same time, the content of Russian ammonia exports is not included in the agreement
.

 

Since the signing of the agreement at the end of July, Ukraine has exported about 11.
1 million tons of agricultural products, including 4.
5 million tons of corn and 3.
2 million tons of wheat
, from three Black Sea ports (Chernomosk, Odessa and Yuzhne).
The extension of the agreement until mid-March next year will help Ukraine export between 13 million and 14 million mt of wheat in 2022/23 (July-June), up from the current USDA forecast of 11 million mt (which is based on the agreement not being renewed).

 

The outlook for the deal largely depends on Russian fertilizer and grain exports

 

The Russian Foreign Ministry noted the commitment of the UN Secretariat to facilitate Russian fertilizer and grain exports and believed that the problems facing Russian exports should be resolved
within the next 120 days.
That means uncertainty will return in four months' time, and people will be watching to see if Russia agrees to an extension
.
Ukraine and Russia are both major global exporters
of grain.
Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat and a major global supplier of fertilizers
.
U.
N.
officials are indeed working harder than ever to boost Russian fertilizer exports
.
Rebecca Grispen, secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which oversees fertilizer talks, told a news conference in Geneva on Friday that the extension was a step forward, but there was still work to be done, especially on
fertilizers.
She hopes that next week's shipment of Russian fertilizer to Malawi will serve as a model for the smooth export
of 300,000 tons of Russian fertilizer currently being held at European ports.
Russia has said it will donate the fertilizers to Africa free of charge, but due to Western sanctions, they have not been able to get out
.
Ms Grispan said that while the United States and the European Union have made it clear that they will not impose sanctions on Russian fertilizers and agricultural products, the 27 EU member states interpret EU rules differently, making things "more complicated"
.
She hopes that the fertilizer shipped from the Netherlands to Malawi via Mozambique on 21 November will serve as a model
for future exports.
Grispan was also optimistic about the prospect of Russia and Ukraine reaching a consensus on the export of Russian ammonia gas to the Black Sea via pipeline, but she did not provide details
.
Thursday's agreement does not include exports
of synthetic ammonia for fertilizers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky linked Russian ammonia exports to prisoners of war
.
He said in September that he would support the resumption of Russian ammonia
exports through Ukraine only if Russia handed over prisoners of war.
Grispan also said the U.
N.
would work to extend the agreement longer than the 120 days
agreed on Thursday.

 

U.
S.
winter wheat conditions have improved, but remain at very poor levels

 

The USDA's weekly crop progress report showed that U.
S.
winter wheat yields improved for
the second week in a row.
As of Nov.
13, U.
S.
winter wheat planting was 96 percent progress, 92 percent last week, 94 percent a year ago and a five-year average of 93 percent
.
Winter wheat emergence was 81 percent, 73 percent last week, 80 percent a year ago, and a five-year average of 81 percent
.
Winter wheat yielded 32 percent, up from 30 percent a week ago, 46 percent a year ago and also higher than analysts' expectations of 31 percent
.
Analysts pointed out that the improvement in crop conditions was mainly due to widespread rainfall in the central and southern plains from November 1 to 8, while rainfall was heavier
in the eastern hard red winter wheat producing areas.
Eastern Texas, north-central and southeastern Oklahoma, and the eastern half of Kansas receive between 1 and 4 inches of rain, with some areas receiving between
4 and 8 inches of rain.
However, the U.
S.
Drought Monitor report showed that the drought in the U.
S.
plains remained severe
in the week ended Nov.
15.
More than one-third of states with poor winter wheat ratings include Colorado (45 percent), Kansas (40 percent), Nebraska (38 percent) and South Dakota (37 percent
).

 

Dr.
Seth Meyer, chief economist at the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture, and Dr.
Mark Jekanowski, chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Committee, which oversees monthly supply and demand reports, warned at the Global Grains Conference in Geneva that the U.
S.
winter wheat crop is currently in very bad shape, and it may be difficult for the wheat crop to thrive
as the new year approaches.
Due to poor weather, the potential for crop recovery has been reduced
.
Historically, even if the autumn crop was in bad condition, the snow was thick enough to return to growing wheat
, Jekanovsky said.
But given the scale of the current disaster, soil moisture may no longer be enough
.
The current U.
S.
winter wheat rate is 32%, much higher than the 20%
rate in the same period last year.

 

US net wheat sales for 2022/23 were 290,300 mt in the week ended November 10, 2022, down from 322,500 mt a week earlier and within market expectations
, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report.
U.
S.
wheat export sales totaled 12.
78 million mt year-to-date, down 6.
5%
year-on-year.

 

Global wheat production was revised downwards as Argentina outgraded those of Australian and Turkish wheat

 

Global wheat production estimates for 2022/23 were revised down by 1 million tonnes to 791 million tonnes, mainly because Argentina's production estimates were lowered, outpacing increases in Turkey and Australia
, according to the International Grains Council's monthly report released on November 17.
Argentina's wheat production is expected at 13 million mt, well below an earlier forecast of 17.
5 million mt.

Argentina's wheat export forecast was revised down from 12 million tonnes to 8 million tonnes due to a sharp drop in wheat production, also more than half
of the previous year.
Russia's wheat export forecast was raised to 41.
1 million mt from 36.
6 million mt last month, up 24.
2% year-on-year, mainly driven by record domestic wheat production
.
Global wheat trade is expected to be 192.
5 million tonnes, slightly higher than last month's forecast of 192.
3 million tonnes, down 2.
1%
year-on-year.
Global wheat ending stocks are expected to be 281.
7 million tonnes, down from 285.
8 million tonnes forecast last month but up 2.
4 percent
from the previous year.

 

Heavy rains in parts of Australia have recently caused flooding and raised concerns about a decline
in wheat quality.
A cold air front will bring scattered rainfall over the weekend, causing much of the area to remain rainy, although the weather will be dry for most of next week, helping floodwaters recede.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said La Niña and warm waters around Australia meant rainfall could be above average
for much of northern Australia in the coming months.

 

India's wheat acreage increased by 15% year-on-year

 

India's wheat acreage increased by nearly 15 percent from a year earlier to 10.
1 million hectares
due to faster winter planting, according to India's Ministry of Agriculture.
As the world's second-largest wheat producer, higher wheat production could help lower prices and replenish stocks that have fallen to multi-year lows
.
India grows only one crop of wheat a year, usually planted in October and November, with the harvest starting at the end of February of the following year
.
India was forced to ban wheat exports in May after a sudden rise in temperatures in March reduced wheat production
.
Despite the export ban, wheat prices have hit record highs, prompting the government to weigh measures such as releasing national reserves to the open market while removing a 40 percent import tariff to cool prices
.