Global wheat markets: Black Sea talks progress, harvest pressures heavy, wheat prices fall

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), September soft red winter wheat futures settled at about $7675 a bushel on Friday, down 19% from a week a.
September hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $375 a bushel, down 15% from a week a.
September hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $0675 a bushel, down 6% from a week a.
Euronext's September 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €3250/tonne, down 8% from a week earli.
Argentine wheat spot price was $428/ton, down 2% from a week a.
The dollar closed at 10911 on Friday, up 02% from a week earli.

 

In its July supply and demand report, the USDA raised its 2022/23.

all-wheat production forecast to 781 billion bushels, up from the June forecast of 737 billion bushels and above the average analyst forecast of 744 billion bushe.
an annual increase of
The 2022/23 export forecast is raised by 25 million bushels to 800 million bushels, as a recent drop in.

prices makes exports more competitive in international marke.
Wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 are forecast at 639 million bushes, up from 627 million in June and slightly below analysts' forecast of 644 milli.

 

The forecast for global wheat production in 2022/23 is lowered by 8 million tons to 776 million, mainly because production declines in the European Union, Ukraine and Argentina outweigh increases in Canada, Russia and the United Stat.

This year, the weather in the EU agricultural producing areas has been hot, high temperature and little rain, especially in the main producing areas, which restricts the potential of wheat per unit yie.

The country's production data is lowered by 2 million tons to 131 million to.

The forecast for global wheat consumption in 2022/23 is lowered 4 million tons to 785 million, as feed and other uses are lowered 8 million tons, more than a 400,000-ton increase in food, seeds, and industrial u.

Global wheat exports are raised 2 million tons to 206 million on higher exports for Canada and the United Stat.

Wheat production in the.


Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies has recovered from last year's drought, and wheat prices have retreated to competitive levels, boosting exports from these countri.

These increases in exports outpaced declines in Argentina and the European Uni.

The.


Department of Agriculture forecast global wheat ending stocks at 2652 million tons, up 700,000 tons from the June forecast and in line with market expectations, but would remain the lowest since 2016/1

 

The United Nations, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia met in Istanbul on Wednesday for a four-party meeting on efforts to restart Ukrainian grain exports, with the two sides discussing sea corridors for grain exports and security issu.

The quartet is reportedly set to sign an agreement next week to resume Ukrainian expor.

The news forced wheat prices to retreat from previously established risk premiums, with KCBT hard red winter wheat prices hitting their lowest since F.

1 With the establishment of the maritime corridor, the Black Sea region will increase exports, improve the shortage of supply in the market, and ease people's concer.

 

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture said that as of July 15, Ukraine's early-season grain harvest was about 10 percent complete, and early harvest results showed that the grain yield was slightly lower than the same period last year, but still higher than the five-year avera.

Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry this week forecast Ukrainian wheat production in 2022 at 18-19 million tonnes, higher than earlier forecast but lower than the previous ye.

The USDA supply and demand report lowered Ukrainian wheat production by 0 million tons to 15 million because of lower harvested ar.

 

Consultancy IKAR forecasts Russian wheat production in 2022 at 95 million tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 87 million tonnes and the previous year's lev.

The amount of wheat available for export in Russia in 2022/23 (July-June) is estimated at 44 million tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 42 million tonn.

Russian farmers began harvesting winter wheat in Ju.

Russian government data released on Tuesday showed that Russia's wheat harvest has reached 16 million to.

The.


Department of Agriculture this month raised its forecast for Russia's 2022/23 wheat production by 500,000 tons, to 85 million tons from an earlier forecast of 81 million tons and an 4 percent increase from the previous year's 716 million to.

SovEcon, another Moscow-based consultancy, on June 21 raised its 2022 Russian wheat output to a record 82 million tonnes and on June 29 raised its forecast for 2022/23 wheat exports to a record 46 million tonn.

tons, up from an earlier forecast of 43 million to.

 

The forecast for European wheat production continues to decli.

On July 14, the French strategic grain company lowered its EU wheat production forecast on Thursday, but maintained its export forecast unchang.

The agency's forecast for EU wheat production in 2022/23 was lowered to 123 million tonnes, down from a June forecast of 124 million tonnes and below the previous year's output of 129 million tonn.

In contrast, the European Commission's monthly report on July 1 shows that the available production of soft wheat in the EU in 2022/23 is 12044 million tons, which is lower than the 1339 million tons forecast in the previous month and 1314 million tons in the previous ye.

The ministry also lowered its forecast for all wheat production in the EU by 2 million tonnes this month to 131 million, also down from 1342 million the previous ye.

Soft wheat production in the EU-27 in 2022/23 will reach 127 million tonnes, down 4 percent from the previous year, according to a survey of 13 analysts last we.

 

Strategic Grains maintained its forecast for EU wheat exports in 2022/23 at 34 million tonnes despite a reduction in EU wheat production, as European wheat is highly competitive and sales have been brisk in recent wee.

However, this outlook may change as Ukrainian grain exports resu.

This week Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations are conducting new negotiations to open up safe passages for Ukraine's grain expor.

Strategic Grains also said that Russia's wheat exports are estimated to be close to 40 million tons, but if the Russian wheat harvest exceeds 89 million tons, exports may increase by at least 5 million to.

 

Argentina's 2022/23 wheat planting progress was 97 percent in the week to July 13, down 5 percent from a year earlier, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) sa.

Argentina's 2022/23 wheat plantings are forecast at 2 million hectares, down 5 percent from the previous ye.

The exchange does not rule out the possibility of continuing to lower the wheat acreage in the futu.

In its July report, the USDA forecast Argentina's wheat production at 15 million tons, down 500,000 tons from the previous month's forecast and 10% lower than the previous year, as low soil moisture and dry weather reduced the harvested ar.

 

The.


winter wheat harvest continues to progress steadi.

The.


Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that as of July 10, the.


winter wheat harvest was 63 percent complete, 54 percent last week, 57 percent a year earlier, and a five-year average of 61 perce.

The market expected a gain of 6
The good-to-good rate of spring wheat continued to improve, at 70%, compared with 66% last week and 16% last ye.

The.


Drought Monitor reported warm temperatures in most of the Great Plains as of July 12, but heavy rain in western North Dakota, central and eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and northeastern Kansas helped spring wheat Crops gr.

 

　.


wheat has become competitive on the international market after a recent sharp drop in prices, attracting Chinese buye.

The.


Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report showed net.


wheat sales for 2022/23 were 0172 million tons in the week ended July 7, the largest weekly sales since March 202 Among them, 265,300 tons were sold to China, the largest purchase by China since November 202 As of July 14, the FOB price of hard red winter wheat in the US Gulf was US$372 per ton, the FOB price of soft red winter wheat was US$325 per ton, the quotation of first-class milling wheat in the French Rouen port was US$353, and the FOB price of wheat in the Russian deep sea port At 360 US dollars / ton, the price of wheat in the Upper River region of Argentina is 428 US dollars per t.