GLOBAL WHEAT MARKETS: U.S. Plains forecast rains, Canadian plantings expected to rise

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soft red winter wheat futures settled at around $10.
5575 a bushel on Friday, down 19.
5 cents, or 1.
8%, from a week ago
.
July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $11.
0575 a bushel, down 43.
75 cents, or 3.
8%, from a week ago
.
July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $11.
66 a bushel, or $11.
6275 a bushel, up 3.
25 cents, or 0.
3%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's September 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €380/t, up €13.
25 or 3.
6 from a week earlier
.
Argentine wheat spot offers were at $450 a ton, up $11 or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 103.
21 on Friday, up 2.
1 percent from a week earlier
.

 

　　U.
S.
winter wheat ratings slip, but weekend rains could help improve moisture conditions

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed conditions for the U.
S.
winter wheat crop fell, hitting the lowest rating for this period since 1989
.
As of April 24, 27% of winter wheat was rated excellent, down from 30% last week and well below 49% a year earlier, as dry weather persisted in the Great Plains winter wheat-producing regions
.
However, the weather agency is forecasting widespread rainfall in these areas over the weekend, which will help replenish soil moisture and possibly improve crop conditions
.

 

　　As of Sunday, April 24, U.
S.
spring wheat planting progress was 13%, 8% last week, 27% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 15%
.
Washington state saw the fastest planting progress at 73%, 40% last week, 79% last year, and a five-year average of 58%
.
The emergence rate of spring wheat is 2%, 7% in the same period last year, and 4% in the same period of five years
.

 

　　U.
S.
wheat export sales remain sluggish

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ended April 21, 2022, net sales of wheat in the United States for 2021/22 were 32,300 tons, 23% higher than last week, but 65% lower than the four-week average.
%
.
Net sales in 2022/23 were 124,300 tonnes, down from 238,400 tonnes a week earlier
.
So far in 2021/22, U.
S.
wheat export sales have totaled 19.
3 million tons, down 24.
6 percent year-on-year
.

 

　　Russia's wheat crop is expected to be bumper

 

　　The Russian National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology said that good soil moisture reserves will contribute to a good harvest in Russia's wheat-producing regions this year
.
Several consultants have already raised their forecasts for 2022 Russian wheat production last week because of favorable weather
.
Consultancy SovEcon on April 21 projected a record 87.
4 million tonnes of Russian wheat production in 2022/23, up from an earlier forecast of 86.
5 million tonnes and up from 76 million tonnes in 2021
.
IKAR raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2022 by 500,000 tons to 83.
5 million tons
.

 

　　European wheat production lowered, but exports still expected to reach record levels

 

　　The European Commission lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 EU wheat crop in its monthly report on Friday, but maintained its forecast for record EU wheat exports as Ukrainian exports were disrupted by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
.
The European Commission lowered EU soft wheat production in 2022/23 to 130.
1 million tonnes from an earlier forecast of 131.
3 million tonnes
.
Exports were unchanged at a record 40 million tonnes
.
The forecast for ending stocks was raised to 12.
6 million from 12.
2 million
.

 

　　Canadian wheat acreage expected to rise more than 7%

 

　　According to the Planting Intentions report released by Statistics Canada, all wheat acres in Canada are expected to reach 25.
031 million acres in 2022/23 (August-July), an increase of 7.
2% year-on-year and 4.
1% higher than the five-year average, the highest level since 2013.
The highest sown area due to strong wheat prices and strong demand
.
Spring wheat acreage will increase to 17.
6 million acres in 2022/23, up 7% year over year; durum wheat acreage will increase nearly 13% year over year to 6.
2 million acres
.
However, the winter wheat area is expected to decrease by 13% year over year to 1.
2 million acres
.
In 2021/22, due to dry weather, Canada's wheat area fell by nearly 7% year-on-year, production was also significantly lower, and export volumes fell, but in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, global supply was tight and demand was strong, leading to Canadian wheat export prices.
surged
.
As of April 17, Canada's 2021/22 wheat exports were down nearly 43% year-on-year, and durum wheat exports were down 61% year-on-year; Canadian wheat export prices have risen since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24 nearly 20%
.