Good news in the oil market frequently comes out, bulk commodities are brewing a spring of rebound

Although the international oil prices fell in yesterday's electronic trading, in March 9th, the April crude oil futures contract in New York closed up 1.
79 US dollars, an increase of 4.
9%, to 38.
29 US dollars per barrel, a record in 2015.
The highest closing level since December 7; Brent May crude oil futures closed up 1.
42 US dollars, or 3.
6%, to 41.
07 US dollars per barrel, also setting a new closing high so far in 2016
.
Regarding the high point of the international oil price refresh stage, some analysts pointed out that despite the data released by the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of the week of March 6, U.
S.
EIA crude oil inventories increased by 3.
88 million barrels, exceeding the previously expected increase in the market.
It is worth 3.
5 million barrels, but the market seems to be more concerned about the sharp drop in gasoline inventories last week by 4.
526 million barrels, which is the largest weekly decline since April 2014
.
Analysts said that the decline in U.
S.
refined oil inventories coincided with the decline in crude oil production in Nigeria and Iraq due to the attack on oil pipelines.
At the same time, Iran's new supply listings were not as many as expected.
These factors have made the bulls more courageous
.
Some insiders also said that the strong rebound in international oil prices indicates that market risk sentiment is improving, which is conducive to increasing the enthusiasm for investment in other commodities, and commodities are brewing a spring of rebound
.
Frequent good news in the oil market.
Although the pressure of high crude oil inventories is still under pressure, the market is optimistic about crude oil with frequent news of the good oil market.
Since early March, oil prices have rebounded significantly, breaking resistance levels one after another, opening up new ones.
The rising interval
.
The US EIA crude oil inventory data released on Wednesday (March 9) fell sharply from the previous month.
In addition to market rumors that Saudi Arabia intends to borrow US$6 billion to US$8 billion to meet its huge fiscal deficit, international crude oil prices started to influence a strong rebound, and New York crude oil futures closed.
Up nearly 5%.
Zhang Qiang, a senior analyst at Zhongshan Group National Trading, believes that this surge has repaired the rebound trend of crude oil prices.
The price is moving away from the "W bottom" pattern, and the market outlook is expected to maintain a volatile rebound trend
.
Gong Wenjia, a researcher at Shiyuan Jinxing, also holds an optimistic view
.
She believes that from the perspective of the supply and demand side of crude oil, major crude oil producing countries are discussing coordinated production reductions, and the agreement on freezing production has achieved initial results
.
At the same time, the United States continues to reduce the number of active oil drilling, and the market expects that crude oil demand will also show a healthy growth, which will improve the situation of excess crude oil supply and provide support for oil prices
.
The major crude oil producing countries hope to improve the oversupply situation in the oil market through coordinated production cuts
.
Latin American oil-producing countries will hold meetings to support measures such as freezing production to boost oil prices
.
According to foreign media reports, Iraqi officials said that OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will meet in Moscow on March 20
.
Oil-producing countries will hold meetings to discuss issues such as oversupply of crude oil.
The market's expectations of a reduction in crude oil production have risen again, and the emergence of technical buying will boost oil prices
.
As the price of crude oil soared in March, it broke through several resistance levels between US$30 and US$38 per barrel, opening a new rising range
.
In general, crude oil finally passed the cold winter of low prices and ushered in the spring of rebound
.
In addition, in crude oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, the long-term sluggish oil price has had a serious impact on the finances and economy
.
These oil-producing countries are willing and motivated to boost oil prices, but they have to weigh the market share and low oil prices
.
Zhang Qiang said that the next 2-3 months will be a critical period for oil-producing countries to "cooperatively reduce production" negotiations.
If the negotiations can make progress, it will be a great boost to oil prices
.
So, will the road to a rebound in international oil prices be smooth sailing? In this regard, many market participants interviewed said that crude oil is still under pressure from oversupply in the global oil market.
At the same time, technical corrections and long profit covering will also put pressure on oil prices
.
From a macro point of view, the demand side of crude oil has not improved significantly, and there are no signs of improvement.
In particular, the slowdown in China’s economy has made the market suspicious of China’s crude oil demand in the future.
"It is not enough to change the pattern of the bear market in crude oil prices
.
Therefore, the current rise can only be positioned as a rebound, not a trend reversal.
In the future, oil prices will continue to fluctuate, showing a pattern of low and wide fluctuations overall.

.
Commodities are expected to be driven.
Crude oil is the absolute leader among commodities.
Rising crude oil prices will help boost investor optimism in the commodity market and drive the rebound of other commodity prices, especially for energy and base metals.
For commodities with relatively strong cyclical properties, crude oil has a great influence
.
However, Zhang Qiang analyzed that the price trends of other commodities are not completely synchronized with crude oil.
In particular, this wave of crude oil rebound is partly due to the impact of news such as oil-producing countries freezing production agreements, rather than macroeconomic recovery
.
In the short term, driven by the strong crude oil, commodity prices have rebounded strongly.
The signs of building a bottom pattern are more obvious.
This phenomenon is expected to continue for some time.
At least the previous unilateral rapid decline may have ended.
The market The previous blindly bearish views on commodities are gradually diminishing
.
“The rebound in crude oil and the rise in prices of other commodities are complementary, so the rebound in crude oil will also help other commodities rebound
.
” Gong Wenjia said, specifically, crude oil began to rebound on February 12, during which oil prices rebounded by 31%.
Among precious metals Gold, silver, etc.
are all showing an upward trend.
In industrial metals, copper, aluminum, nickel and other varieties have also soared, and chemical and black varieties have been significantly driven
.
The rebound in crude oil indicates that the market's risk sentiment is gradually improving, which also affects other commodities, which is conducive to driving the bullish atmosphere in other commodities and promoting the rebound of other commodities
.
Macroeconomics may be improving.
From a fundamental point of view, from the perspective of crude oil supply, major crude oil countries have begun to coordinate production cuts and other measures to alleviate the pressure on high inventories.
At the same time, the freeze production agreement has also begun to bear fruit.
The upcoming OPEC Meetings with non-OPEC oil-producing countries have once again heated up the market’s expectations of a reduction in crude oil production
.
Looking at the demand side of crude oil again, the global economic growth is slowing up, and China's crude oil imports are strong
.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on March 8 showed that as the world’s second largest oil importer, China’s crude oil imports in February 2016 increased by 19% month-on-month to 31.
8 million tons, equivalent to about 8.
04 million barrels per day, a record Highest record of average daily quantity
.
China's continuous increase of its strategic oil reserves will help to partly eliminate the oversupply of global crude oil
.
"In general, the supply and demand side of crude oil is developing in a good state, and the rebound of crude oil is the result of its performance
.
" Gong Wenjia said
.
Zhang Qiang reminded that the relationship between crude oil prices and the macro level is not a simple causal relationship.
The rebound in oil prices is not necessarily due to the improvement of the macro level, and the improvement of the macro level will likely drive oil prices up
.
Therefore, we cannot judge that the macro economy has improved just because the price of crude oil has rebounded, but we must look at this issue from multiple angles
.
First, since the international crude oil price rebounded from a low level, although the rate has reached nearly 50%, it is still at a low level in a major cycle.
Therefore, whether oil prices have broken away from the downward trend is still difficult to determine, and further observation is needed
.
Secondly, the start of this wave of international oil price rebound is largely due to the efforts of major oil-producing countries in restricting production and cooperating to reduce production.
It is not caused by the increase in demand for crude oil.
Only a sharp rebound in demand for crude oil can be regarded as a macroeconomic impact.
Get better
.
Third, the recently announced macroeconomic data of emerging economies such as the United States, Europe and China have not improved significantly, and more data support is needed for the judgment of macroeconomic improvement
.
Therefore, the rebound in oil prices does not mean an improvement in the macro level, but it is a positive signal-the bull market cycle in the general commodity market is half a year earlier than the macro economy, and the possibility of an overall improvement in the macro level in the second half of this year cannot be ruled out
.