Grain prices will rise by about 20% this year

Introduction: from May 1995 or October 1996 to July September 2003, the price of domestic grain basically fell or bottomed out Of course, the price of soybean rose after the Spring Festival in 2000, and the price of corn, wheat, high-quality rice and other varieties rose after 2002, but it still operated at a low level Taking Guilin wholesale market price as an example, in the past eight years, there is a big difference between the highest price and the lowest price, and the depth and time of the decline are rare in history In recent six or seven years, the wholesale price of uqn by varieties has declined as follows: uqn early rice: the highest price is about 2500 yuan / ton (July 1995), and the lowest price is only about 1400 yuan / ton (2001-2003), with a difference of 1100 yuan, a decrease of 44% Uqn late rice: the highest price is about 2750 yuan / ton (November 1995); the lowest price is only about 1500 yuan / ton (2001-2003), with a difference of 1200 yuan, a decrease of 44% Uqn domestic wheat: the highest price is about 1450 yuan / ton; the lowest price is only about 850 yuan / ton, a difference of 600 yuan, a decrease of 41% Uqn local special flour: the highest price is about 2850 yuan / ton (October 1996 January 1997); the lowest price is only about 1400 yuan / ton (2002-2003), with a difference of nearly 1450 yuan, a decrease of 51% Of course, in the past, wheat for flour milling included imported wheat In the past two or three years, imported wheat has not been used, so the price is somewhat incomparable, but the decline is at least 40% Uqn corn: the highest price is about 1880 yuan / ton (May 1995); the lowest price is only about 800 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is only 750 yuan / ton (February April 2000), a difference of 1080 yuan, a decrease of 57% Uqn soybeans: the highest price is about 3800 yuan / ton (may July 1996 or 2002-2003); the lowest price is only about 2100 yuan / ton (July November 1999), with a difference of 1700 yuan, a decrease of more than 45% Uqn peanut oil: the highest price is about 11500 yuan / ton (in the first half of 1995 and January March of 1998); the lowest price is less than 7500 yuan / ton (in 2002 or 2003), with a difference of 4000 yuan, a decrease of 35% Uqn soybean oil: the highest price is about 9400 yuan / ton (January March 1995); the lowest price is less than 4600 yuan / ton (2002 or 2003), a difference of 4800 yuan, a decrease of 49% Uqn refining rapeseed oil: the highest price is about 9400 yuan / ton (January March 1995); the lowest price is less than 4600 yuan / ton (2002 or 2003), a difference of 4800 yuan, a decrease of 49% Uqn soybean meal: the highest price is about 3200 yuan / ton (April June, 1995 or 1997); the lowest price is less than 1400 yuan / ton (July, 1999), with a difference of 1800 yuan, a decrease of 56% Uqn wheat bran: the highest price is about 1650 yuan / ton (March August 1995); the lowest price is less than 860 yuan / ton (July August 2002), with a difference of 790 yuan, a decrease of 48% It can be seen from the above uqn that the decline of grain price is more than 40%, and the time of decline is more than five or six years, and the long time is up to eight years The basic reason for the decline of uqn grain price is that the grain production has been in good harvest for five consecutive years since 1995 The production is greater than the demand, the purchase is greater than the sale, and the supply is greater than the demand The stock is greatly increased and the stock is seriously overstocked Although this kind of surplus is in the condition of low economic level, low living standard and low consumption level, it is the main reason for the decline of grain price Uqn therefore, the overall increase of grain prices since the first ten days of October is the result of the law of market supply and demand and the law of price It is a normal market behavior By the end of October and the beginning of November, the increase range is about 15% - 20% In the first and middle ten days of November, the grain prices fell back and reorganized, the range is about 5% - 10% In the middle and late November, food prices showed signs of rising again, mainly because the supply did not improve fundamentally, and the demand was driven by Festival driven growth But this time, the price of grain will rise again, which is estimated to be about 5-10%, which cannot be as large as the previous period UqN