Guo Guangchang: it is difficult to continue the two capital circulation modes in China. Where are the business opportunities in the future?

Source: ft Chinanet 2014-08-08 editor's note: This paper is the speech of Guo Guangchang, chairman of Fosun Group, at the semi annual investment working conference of Fosun Group in 2013 Now, it is very suitable for Fosun Group to accelerate its development Recently, I feel that the two major cycles of China's economy or the world's economy are undergoing profound changes In a circle, we've talked a lot about it In the past, China relied more on exports to Europe and the United States, especially to the United States After making a lot of money, we used the money to buy US Treasury bonds The Americans borrowed our money and then bought our things It's a big cycle of money Now it's hard to continue or expand behind this big cycle - the US national debt and national debt have come to an end From 2008 to now, in fact, it's eliminating debt The U.S market system is relatively perfect, so the U.S can better use the market mechanism to eliminate non-performing assets Now the U.S is investing because he thinks debt has become benign But after eliminating debt, in fact, the U.S manufacturing industry is globally competitive Including his energy price is better than that of China There are still some advantages in China's economic manufacturing industry, but as before, it is difficult to expand such a capital cycle, let alone end it, by relying on a large number of our products for manufacturing and then continuing to increase sales in the United States In turn, the Chinese government will pay more attention to domestic consumption and how to create private consumption to promote China's own development The second cycle: before, the main purpose of people's money was to have banks One of the main purposes of banks was to lend money to state-owned enterprises, especially to the government The government took the money for infrastructure construction What was the repayment of infrastructure loans? Because after the infrastructure construction, more land will come out, and then the land will be sold to the developers, and then the developers will use the land to build houses and sell them to everyone The formation of such a capital cycle, but this capital cycle also began to face difficulties Recently, Premier Li Keqiang is in the background of his family An important task is to conduct the audit of the government itself, which ended in October I went to Ningbo two days ago to learn that governments at all levels attach great importance to this matter I think the dividend of Chinese government's debt has been basically exhausted Private debt ratio is also high I look around Basically, people around 40 can afford to buy a house, and those who can't afford to buy a house are more difficult to afford, because house prices are rising too fast Although there is room for private debt, it may not be as big as before So, I'm afraid that capital cycle will end What does this mean? Why does Premier Li Keqiang do this? In fact, there are two purposes One purpose is to find out the family background, just as a professional manager is on duty and needs to conduct due diligence, so does the family background Second, he still has a book in mind, which forces reform Originally, this model was unsustainable, but now it has to force reform After the government's debt reaches this scale, what should we do? We must reduce the debt In the past, a large number of public facilities, buildings and hospitals were owned by the government and made by the government I think the state-owned assets will enter the market more quickly In this way, the reform will be accelerated, including the financial reform From the new government to the present, the whole value orientation and political orientation are very clear and stable politically, but the concrete reform steps and efforts are relatively strong In particular, financial reform will become the core of this reform In the future, with the deepening of interest rate marketization, exchange rate marketization and other reforms, what will be brought about? The monopoly profits of financial enterprises will be less and less, and the concept of big finance will become an equal competition environment more and more What does this mean? Funds will be more concentrated on platforms that can generate more efficiency, and the use of resources of funds will be more market-oriented In the past, the distribution of funds was more monopolistic, more distributed by the state, and more distributed by the market in the future So we come to a conclusion that in the future, whoever can make more effective use of funds, the stronger your ability to get this cake Just like the marketization of insurance, it's not that you can't sell insurance products, but dare to sell insurance products Because he's competitive You can't even sell some products Only when you export can you dare to import; only when you use the funds, can you dare to ask for money from the market This logic goes on, very simple, who has the ability to invest in the future, who can become the leader of the leading financial market It's not that who can get the money, it's not uncommon to get the money, because there is a cost to get the money, everyone is competitive, the key is whether the money can be used well We have always said that we should build a financial group with the construction of investment capacity as the leading role Our financial group is an industry-based financial group Under such a policy trend, Fosun has advantages We should continue to follow our original ideas and actively build our investment ability, because only when you have strong investment ability and can give better return and use efficiency to the fund, can others dare to give you the money In this case, Fosun can help build a better China through investment innovation through the construction of investment capacity For us, we need to accelerate development In terms of accelerating development, there are several aspects that we hope to draw attention to First, we should firmly grasp the concepts of big platform, industrial chain, standardization and industrial line One is the direction of great health With the aging, with the rise of labor prices in the middle and lower levels, the demand for health will increase But what do we do to meet the health needs? For Fosun, based on the previous exploration, we need to increase our efforts now The core strength is two One is the investment and construction of hospitals It is not surprising that we have invested 500 hospitals in China We need to standardize the investment products of hospitals and fully share this information with our investment teams The second is to provide for the aged The foundation of cooperation with fortress should be standardized quickly We can't wait any longer After the standardization, the team should expand rapidly if it focuses on urban pension We need to have assembly projects Now I see three pieces of assembly projects One is the construction of a large hospital This opportunity is very important Many governments want to invest in hospitals themselves, and immediately feel that they have no money We are willing to invest with them There are 500 hospitals in China Why can't we do it? There used to be a government to provide for the aged Now the government can support you to provide for the aged at a high level and open it quickly The third is to quickly open up and do other investments around health care This is a good example of our Alma project in Israel In the whole investment, besides medicine itself, we hope other investment teams will pay close attention to the needs of our big medicine and big health Second, big culture These two days, I have more communication with Xiaoliang, and I have combined with the great culture and tourism We need to quickly form some standardized products This standardized product, several lines First, comprehensively integrate China's national art resources, such as Dongyang wood carving, Suzhou silk, Jingdezhen ceramics, etc in the Internet era, with the rise of experience economy, with everyone's demand for leisure life, there will be more and more requirements for these things If we can combine culture with tourism and do such projects in cities and tourist spots, there is space Second, this time I went to Guilin and saw Mediterranean club I think it's good After years of preparation, I've made ten in China What's the problem? Mediterranean club also needs to discuss the second brand of the city quickly I'm confident There is also Atlantis This year, Atlantis will start in Hainan I think there are still several projects like Atlantis that can be done and standardized Around the big culture, we still have a lot of space to do We need to increase our efforts Third, big trade Around the big trade, we have participated in Ma Yun's rookie program, and several domestic big trade are cooperating But around the big trade, we should focus on two points, one is cooperation with national medicine, and there are a lot of things to do around this area The second is the steel union The first step of the listed steel union is based on information construction Now we need to expand e-commerce and Taobao It's no problem to open up the structure and make a trillion yuan Fosun has such two platform foundations Why not completely open up the business and logistics? Of course, the big business must be combined with Xiaoliang and experience economy In the Internet age, how to make investment and how to standardize products Fourth, big finance In big finance, we have reinsurance, life insurance and property insurance Now we need to closely around the whole financial opening up, as soon as possible to get the banking license mainly for Fosun, get the small loan license More research should be done in this area In the process of applying for the banking license with Fosun as the leading role, we should combine with the national medicine and material trade that we already have advantages, increase product innovation, and make Fosun's financial characteristics There are still many opportunities for global asset platforms We need to strengthen our efforts in this area Around the big finance, the big commerce, the big health and the big culture, we should carry on the product standardization and the product research This is one aspect On the other hand, at the same time of this kind of standardization, we should strengthen the opening of the industrial chain What is the connection of industrial chain? That is, we need to link our insurance with the standardized products and real estate development we just mentioned Now is an opportunity point Why now is the opportunity? The government itself is not as easy to obtain funds as before On the other hand, we are in the demand of urbanization upgrading The government hopes to have better functions of schools, hospitals and cities through market-oriented operation, and Fosun just can combine these needs to meet the needs of a better life and a better city We should make full use of our existing deppon team, including deppon innovation capital to increase research We solve the problem of capital for the government through Debang capital, and better serve the requirements of urbanization upgrading through the medical platform and pension platform We must work together to get through the industrial chain, the insurance funds, the private funds and the needs of our industrial development In addition to a real estate research institute, we need a real Fosun Group Level Research Institute This research institute is not only a large and general strategic research in the traditional sense, but also a research on collaborative research and industrial chain connectivity To get these things through, how to get through and how to combine funds, we need a group of people to think about it If we only rely on me and trust the army to think about it, it will certainly not be enough In a word, all industries should give full play to their advantages and have product power We're looking around the world