Has the golden age passed when the growth rate of China's pharmaceutical industry's income slows down?

[market analysis of chinapharma.com] on March 13, Zhao Bing, an analyst of China pharmaceutical industry of UBS Securities, said that in the future, the payment mode of medical insurance will become an important factor in the drug pricing system In recent rounds, the price of drug bidding has shown a downward trend Many low prices of drugs have appeared in 2015 and 2016 Zhao Bing said that with the payment incorporated into the whole bidding price system, the price of drugs will undoubtedly show further decline In the next three years, the income growth of the pharmaceutical industry will slow down to about 10% (has the golden age passed when the growth of China's pharmaceutical industry's income slows down? Photo source: Baidu photo) fee control and structural adjustment are the core of future medical insurance reform Zhao Bing said that since 2009, the medical reform policy has established a comprehensive coverage of the medical insurance system, in which government spending has also become a driving force for the growth of the medical industry As a result, the pharmaceutical industry achieved an annual revenue growth of 15% in 2011-2015 Under the condition that the medical demand has been fully released, the new round of reform will focus on: 1 Using demand structure adjustment to solve the problem of uneven distribution and use of medical resources; 2 When the growth rate of medical insurance expenditure is higher than that of financing, cost control becomes the core of reform Zhao Bing said that the near popular "two guarantees in one" policy, which combines rural medical insurance and urban residents' medical insurance, is to solve the problem of uneven medical level in rural and urban areas The adjustment of the proportion of medical insurance reimbursement and the promotion of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment are regulating the use of medical resources and guiding the management of chronic diseases to stay at the grass-roots level The new medical industry policies, including the notice on promoting the work of charging by disease, the opinion on strengthening the budget management of basic medical insurance funds and playing the role of controlling medical insurance funds, etc., emphasize the theme of controlling medical insurance fees in medical insurance Medical insurance cost control will affect drug pricing In June 2015, No 904 document of the national development and Reform Commission started the market-oriented reform of drug prices Since then, bidding has become the main way to determine drug prices However, because of the pressure of medical insurance payment, the medical insurance payment system began to have an increasingly important impact on drug prices this year Zhao Bing predicted that hospitals and medical insurance departments will be more involved in the price setting process, and the drug price system will increasingly present a dual pricing system, which is determined by the bidding and medical insurance payment In 2016, the growth rate of income in the pharmaceutical industry slowed down, and the income in the pharmaceutical industry reached 2.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.70 yuan; the profit reached 300.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.90% According to Zhao Bing's analysis, the level of profit growth is better than the level of income growth, which proves that the whole industry still has a certain degree of efficiency growth He estimated that in the next three years or so, the revenue growth of the pharmaceutical industry will also remain at about 10% However, Zhao Bing stressed that the pharmaceutical industry has passed the golden period of double-digit growth, and under the premise of controlling medical insurance fees, the opportunities in the industry will present structural characteristics For example, he said: "when the health insurance catalog was just published in 2009, the index of the whole pharmaceutical industry including stock and pharmaceutical industry rose significantly However, this time (the fourth catalog adjustment) you will find that the performance of the pharmaceutical industry's stock is more structural opportunities." According to Zhao Bing's calculation, the gross profit margin of the first three five years of China's pharmaceutical industry is 35% (1999-2003), 31% (2004-2009) and 29% (2010-2015), respectively The overall gross profit rate shows a downward trend, mainly due to the rise of labor and production costs "We believe that the downward trend of gross profit rate will continue in the next five-year period due to further lower drug prices.".