Has the pork price bottomed out from Level 3 to Level 1 warning?

On June 16, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a three-level warning for excessively falling pig prices

On June 30, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that from June 21 to 25, the national average pig-to-food ratio was 4.

In less than two weeks, the warning level of excessive fall in live pig prices rose from level three to level one

The reporter recently visited the offline pork retail market in Chengdu and learned that the current excessive drop in pork prices has affected the sales of pork and even other meat varieties

Pork sales fell along with prices, and aquatic product sales were affected by the correlation

The prices of some farmers’ markets in the main urban area announced by the Chengdu Development and Reform Commission show that on July 6, 2021, the price of lean meat will be between 17-22 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly will be between 12-17 yuan per catty, and large rows will be sold per catty.

According to the monitoring of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the pig price trend in Sichuan is basically the same as that of the whole country

At the Anju Tianya Stone Vegetable Market, a fishery merchant told reporters that while pork prices have fallen, fish sales have continued to drop.

A number of pork merchants in the Daxue Road Farmers Market told reporters that at the same time that pork prices fell, pork sales in June fell by about 30% compared with January

The price of pork is affected by both slaughter volume and feed price

Muyuan Foods Co.

Muyuan mentioned in its 2020 annual report that the domestic hog breeding industry has obvious periodic characteristics, and the cyclical fluctuations of hog prices are obvious, generally 3-4 years as a cycle

A person in charge of a pig farm in Jingyan County, Sichuan, told reporters that the current low price of pigs and rising feed prices make the operating conditions unsatisfactory

The "Preplan" proposes that when the pig-to-food price ratio is lower than 6:1, the National Development and Reform Commission will issue a three-level warning; when the pig-to-food price ratio is at 5:1 to 6:1 for 3 consecutive weeks, or the stock of sows can be reproduced When the month-on-year decrease reaches 5%, or the number of sows capable of reproducing stocks has decreased by 5%-10% for three consecutive months, a secondary warning will be issued; when the price ratio of pigs to food is lower than 5:1, the number of sows capable of breeding may be reproduced.

trend

Experts judge that pork prices are still fluctuating up and down, but they are already in the trough from the perspective of the cycle

On July 9th, at the press conference of the Ten Measures to Stabilize Live Pig Production in Sichuan Province, Li Chunhua, Chief Livestock Pastor of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, emphasized that production services, disease prevention, processed products, preparations for purchasing and storage, and credit support will be started.

Engaged in the research on the stable supply mechanism of the pig industry for many years, Wang Fang, a professor at the School of Management of Sichuan Agricultural University, believes that this round of "pig cycle" is unusual, and the "supply and demand malformation" in it has made a cliff-like decline in pork prices inevitable

"After the African swine fever epidemic, after cleaning up and rectifying, by the second half of 2020, 60% of the pig production capacity will be in the hands of large-scale breeding companies

How soon can pork prices return to normal levels? Wang Fang said that based on empirical judgment, with the market's self-regulation and policy tools gradually taking effect, this round of "pig cycle" has entered the middle and late stages, and pork prices will still fluctuate up and down in the short term, but in the long run it is already in a trough

Wang Fang believes that the unified and coordinated purchasing and storage work at the national level will have an important positive effect on the stability of pork prices, but it is also necessary to see that pork prices are under pressure in the long-term
.

Related reports

The price of freshwater fish is still 30% more expensive than in previous years

Expert: Expected to fall further in September

The price of pork dropped significantly in the first half of this year, however, the price of freshwater fish quietly rose
.
On July 12, the reporter visited the vegetable markets and supermarkets in Chengdu and found that the prices of freshwater fish such as silver carp, grass carp, crucian carp, and sea bass currently on the market were still at a high level, but they had fallen back compared to 10 days ago
.
Among them, the price of silver carp dropped to 9 yuan/jin, grass carp 10 yuan/jin, silver carp 14 yuan/jin, crucian carp 16 yuan/jin, sea bass 25 yuan/jin, and mandarin fish 65 yuan/jin
.
Experts said that the price drop is related to the listing of Xinyu, but the price will continue for a period of time.
It is expected that the price will fall further when Xinyu is listed on the market in September
.

Ms.
Li, who was buying fish at Xiangrongqiao Farmer’s Market in Jinjiang District, Chengdu, told reporters that because her family loves to eat fish, she will come to buy fish every three to five.
However, after the Spring Festival this year, the price of freshwater fish has continued to rise, and the price of freshwater fish has been more than 60 yuan in the past.
Two silver carp, but now I only bought one silver carp weighing 4 catties for 69 yuan
.

Ms.
Li said that last year a catty of silver carp was less than 10 yuan, silver carp and grass carp were cheaper.
Occasionally, if the family wanted to eat something good, they would buy bass.
At that time, the price was only 20 yuan per catty, but now it has risen to 30 Yuan/jin
.
"Hopefully the price (freshwater fish) will drop again in the next few months
.
"

The reporter saw at the scene that the freshwater fish sold by the store mainly included silver carp, silver carp, crucian carp, bass, etc.
, of which silver carp was 18 yuan per catty, silver carp 9 yuan per catty, crucian carp 17 yuan per catty, and sea bass 30 yuan.
/Jin
.
The shop owner told reporters that the price of freshwater fish began to rise after the Spring Festival this year
.

The reporter saw in a Wal-Mart supermarket near Shiren North Road in Qingyang District that the supermarket’s aquatic product area gave 14.
22 yuan/jin of grass carp to the tip of the “hot price”
.
For other freshwater fish, silver carp is 19.
3 yuan/jin, crucian carp is 17.
8 yuan/jin, and sea bass is 33.
8 yuan/carp
.
The staff told reporters that the current price of freshwater fish has dropped by about 3-4 yuan, and overall it is still about 30% higher than in previous years
.

According to Wu Xiaoying, owner of Huixin Aquatic Products Store in Qingshiqiao Market in Chengdu, the price of freshwater fish this year is the highest in the past 20 years
.
In previous years, silver carp and grass carp never exceeded RMB 10, but this year the price of grass carp in their shop exceeded RMB 14 at the highest price, let alone other fish
.

What are the reasons behind the increase in freshwater fish prices? According to the relevant person in charge of the Sichuan Fisheries Bureau, Sichuan needs to purchase about 500,000 tons of freshwater fish from Hubei and other provinces each year.
The increase in freshwater fish prices is mainly caused by the following factors: First, the increase in cost is due to feed and labor.
In the past, the price of silver carp from Hubei Province was only 1.
7 yuan/kg, and this year it rose to 3.
7 yuan/kg, which directly caused the overall price increase
.
Second, affected by the removal of nets in reservoirs in major production areas such as Hubei, the production of freshwater fish in this area has decreased correspondingly, and the balance of supply and demand has been broken
.
Third, starting from this year, the Yangtze River has entered a period of "ten-year fishing ban", and the output of freshwater fish has further declined
.
Fourth, after the epidemic has gradually improved, the catering market has ushered in a recovery, and market demand has greatly increased, which has caused this round of freshwater fish prices to rise
.

What is the future price trend? The person in charge said that in the short term, the supply of freshwater fish is still tight and prices will continue to remain high
.
It is expected that in September, freshwater fish prices will fall further after the new fish begin to be listed in a concentrated manner, but whether they can fall back to the price before the rise depends on market conditions
.