How far is the novel coronavirus pneumonia from us?

Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, coupled with more timely and improved detection methods, the number of new confirmed cases per day is more in China As of February 7, there were 3399 new cases in China, with a total of 34546 confirmed cases China's China's novel coronavirus novel coronavirus has been postponed to February 21st until February 8th and then to WHO "At this stage, it is not yet possible to predict when the" turning point "of the domestic epidemic will come, nor can it predict whether the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak will erupt or become a global epidemic outside China, because there are still a lot of key information that the new coronavirus can not grasp for the world scientific community " In February 5th, novel coronavirus pneumonia was confirmed in Wuhan, which was 30 hours old The red light transmitted by vertical transmission of mother and infant was lit In the past few days, "new coronavirus was detected in feces", to "coronavirus was detected in doorknobs" in Guangzhou, and now it is possible for mother to infant vertical transmission The transmission of new coronavirus is increasing continuously, which adds more panic to the originally tense atmosphere in the country Novel coronavirus infection has as pressing danger as pneumonia What time can effective drugs be released? This is not only a "war epidemic" concerning the Chinese people, but also a "war epidemic" concerning all mankind In order to overcome the difficulties, research teams at home and abroad are stepping up trials of various clinical drugs and programs Fortunately, in the past few days, there have been many good news about the effectiveness of drugs from public channels, bringing great hope to the public and patients This should have been the good news with tears in our eyes However, there are also some statements about the effectiveness of drugs that have attracted some negative public opinions and been controversial Figure 1 overview of effective drugs reported through public channels Combing through the public information, we found that the good news is continuous, but the voice of doubt is also continuous How to distinguish the truth of effective conclusion of drugs? In fact, any drug must go through clinical trials before large-scale clinical application At present, most of the drugs that are recognized by the state as potentially effective are in clinical trials According to the query, there are 7 kinds of 2019 ncov infection drugs currently in the clinical research stage Figure 2 drugs under development for 2019 ncov infection It can be seen that drugs originally used to treat Ebola infection, anti AIDS drugs and anti SARS drugs are all used to explore the effectiveness of 2019 ncov Some of them have been successfully used in individual clinical cases, such as the lopinavir / ritonavir regimen, and readcivir In January 23, 2020, novel coronavirus was infected by Wang Guangfa, a member of the National Health Protection Committee and No.1 Hospital of Peking University, director of respiratory and critical care medicine After taking the drug of the treatment of AIDS, he received only one day's body temperature and improved his body temperature He confirmed the efficacy of the drug from the personal level of Ritonavir Tablets Novel coronavirus pneumonia was successfully treated in novel coronavirus pneumonia in January 31st The news of the first case of severe acute pneumonia in was recovered by Reed Novel coronavirus infection was first reported in February 6th by Reed's latest clinical progress in the evening of February 5th The first batch of 761 new cases of coronavirus infection was introduced Epidemic situation is order, prevention and control is responsibility In fact, in addition to these drugs in the clinical trial stage, many research teams in the medical field in China are making more efforts, such as Wuhan virus Institute and other institutions that recently found that chloroquine phosphate in vitro experiment is effective, Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of science and technology and other institutions jointly screened thousands of compounds and found that five compounds may be effective More drugs may enter clinical trials later In the face of rapid outbreaks, time is life How far is the novel coronavirus pneumonia effective? From the five novel coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan released by the National Health Protection Committee, it has been released since the fourth edition that some exploratory drug therapy guidance programs have been introduced according to clinical practice As of February 7, the diagnosis and treatment plan has been updated to the fifth version, and the comparison of the two versions of drug application guidance is as follows It is worth noting that these are exploratory clinical medication guidance, and the national health and Health Commission made it clear in the fifth version of the program that "there is no effective antiviral treatment method confirmed at present" Figure 3 guidance on drug application of the national health and Health Commission's diagnosis and treatment plan On the other hand, we are working on drugs Generally speaking, the clinical phase of the drug test cycle is long, at least 2-3 years According to the clinical research progress of the above drugs, abidol has been in clinical stage III and is expected to be approved in a relatively short time However, Liu Yuling, member of the new drug review committee of the State Food and drug administration, said in an interview that if the special affairs office of the State Food and Drug Administration speeds up the examination and approval during the extraordinary period of fighting against the epidemic, radcivir may get the import approval as soon as one or two months Accordingly, the application of other effective drug regimens in clinical cases may also be accelerated.