How will new beans perform after coming into the market this year

Introduction: in the near future, the domestic soybean market trend is relatively stable, and the domestic soybean purchase market in 2003 / 04 has been basically in a standstill state At present, the soybean growth in the main production area is in good condition Due to the uneven sowing time, the soybean harvest time will be different in different regions, but it is expected that the large-scale market will be listed in 11 In the middle of June, there are already early maturing soybeans on the market, but it has not played a significant role in the market In the face of the chaotic soybean market, the industry can not help but question, how will the new bean market be interpreted this year? The specific analysis is as follows: there are many problems with imported soybeans, and the crushing loss of oil plants is serious Since this year, due to the continuous downturn of soybean meal market consumption and the pressure of high price imported soybeans, the crushing profit of domestic oil plants has been in a negative situation of serious loss Although at present, compared with the loss of thousands of yuan per ton of domestic oil plants in April and may, it is still not optimistic According to the actual centralized transaction price of 2750-2800 yuan / ton soybean meal, the transaction price of 6250 yuan / ton soybean oil and the cost of 3900 yuan / ton imported soybean transported by the oil factory in the early stage, the loss of the processed soybean meal of the oil factory is still about 500-600 yuan / ton At present, the overall prosperity of domestic breeding industry is still not coming, which will indirectly lead to the reduction of the enthusiasm of oil mills for squeezing and purchasing The arrival of imported soybeans is insufficient, and the new season soybeans are expected to be favored Due to the cautious demand of Chinese buyers and the impact of confidence of some international traders in exporting soybeans to China, the arrival of imported soybeans in recent months is estimated to decline significantly It is reported that the number of freighters in South American ports or ready to ship to China has also declined recently According to the shipping statistics, the number of soybeans to be shipped in Brazil port before July 30 is 2, and the number of soybeans to be shipped in Argentina port is 3 According to such shipping speed, taking into account the number of delayed demurrage in July, the number of soybeans to be shipped to domestic port in August will not exceed 600000 tons, and the arrival in September is expected to be further reduced Of course, there are also concerns in the market, that is, will the reduced demand for soybeans in South America be transferred to the long-term soybeans? American fund is a veteran of market speculation, but if the price of American new season soybean soars after listing, then the domestic soybean market will naturally expect domestic soybean According to the statistics of the customs, in the first half of this year, the number of imported soybeans in China decreased by 11.9% year on year, and the import volume of most enterprises with foreign investment background fell by more than 20% year on year, while that of domestic private enterprises increased by 30% - 110% In this year, the overall high price of soybeans, the large difference in soybean import cost and CBOT Under the market background of soybean price volatility, the latter suffered serious losses, coupled with the different use of futures instruments, resulting in serious polarization and accelerated integration of the oil industry In such a market situation, it is obvious that some oil companies participating in hedging will have a comparative advantage, so the improvement of the enthusiasm of these groups to participate in the market will boost the atmosphere of soybean acquisition in the new season in advance To sum up, whether the listing of new beans this year will cause the increase of purchasing power of some oil plants around the production area depends on the market demand, price level and the international soybean market environment If the domestic soybean market demand continues to be depressed, the processing time required for domestic soybean inventory and a small number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in August and September will be correspondingly extended At that time, some soybean demand may shift to new beans in the United States or even new beans made in China, which will activate the atmosphere of the whole purchase market However, there are rumors recently that the recent decline in soybean prices has attracted the attention of the relevant departments of the state, and that they do not want to excessively suppress the market price position when the domestic soybean is about to be listed It seems that the market will fluctuate before the listing of domestic new season soybean