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In the first half of the year, among the few falling products, hydrogen peroxide ranked first in the list of declines
.
As of the end of June, the closing price of 27.
5% hydrogen peroxide on the Shandong market was 835 yuan (ton price, the same below), a decrease of 541 yuan from the opening price at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 39.
Prices go up and down
Prices go high and open low prices go high and open low pricesIn the first half of the year, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market drove up and down
.
The release of new production capacity, coupled with poor downstream markets and unstable start-ups, will have a greater impact on the hydrogen peroxide market
.
In January, the hydrogen peroxide market had no significant impact on supply and demand.
The high price operation trend continued in December 2020.
The price center was around 1,400 yuan, with little change
.
The Spring Festival approached in February.
After the release of new equipment capacity, the supply increased, coupled with the unstable start of downstream caprolactam and papermaking, printing and dyeing industries, the focus of transactions continued to decline
Starting from the second quarter, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide companies in East China has declined, and the downstream procurement is concentrated, driving the center of gravity of hydrogen peroxide to continue to explore a narrow range
.
Towards the end of April, manufacturers’ export sales were concentrated, and their focus became stable
.
Increased production capacity is the main reason
Increase in production capacity is the main cause Increase in production capacity is the main causeLongzhong Information hydrogen peroxide analyst Xue Dongmei believes that in the first half of the year, the main reason for the pressure on the hydrogen peroxide market was the significant increase in production
.
According to statistics, in the first half of the year, Jiangsu Fortune New Materials 380,000 tons/year, Guangxi Jingui Pulp 300,000 tons/year, Shandong Luxi Chemical 300,000 tons/year, Inner Mongolia Qinghua 260,000 tons/year and other installations were put into production.
The increase is obvious
.
As of the end of June, the country's total hydrogen peroxide production capacity has increased to 17.
01 million tons, an increase of 1.
Since the second half of last year, as the impact of the epidemic has weakened, downstream demand has gradually recovered, and hydrogen peroxide production has also steadily increased
.
New production capacity was released in the first half of this year, and China's total hydrogen peroxide output reached 6.
556 million tons, an increase of 1.
In addition, the high imports of hydrogen peroxide in the first half of the year and the low exports also had a certain impact on the domestic market
.
According to customs statistics, from January to May, China imported 24,300 tons of hydrogen peroxide, a year-on-year increase of 73.
57%; exports of hydrogen peroxide 2,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 58.
Market weakness is hard to change
Market weakness is hard to change, market weakness is hard to change "From the current statistics on the new production capacity of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam, the hydrogen peroxide supply end is in the stage of concentrated production capacity.
The new caprolactam devices have hydrogen peroxide supporting devices, but in terms of the consumption ratio of the two, the production capacity of hydrogen peroxide is still far higher than that of caprolactam.
To increase production capacity, it is expected that the supply of hydrogen peroxide will be relatively loose in the second half of 2021, and the market may not be able to change its weakness
.
" Xue Dongmei said in analysis
.
In terms of new hydrogen peroxide production capacity, Taixing Lingsu Jineng New Material Technology Co.
, Ltd.
plans to put 125,000 tons/year equipment into operation in the fourth quarter; Shandong Jinmei Riyue Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
plans to put 120,000 tons/year equipment into operation in the third quarter; Henan Lianchuang Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
The company's 150,000 tons/year plant is scheduled to be put into operation in the fourth quarter; Henan Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co.
, Ltd.
’s 200,000 tons/year plant is scheduled to be put into operation in the fourth quarter; Lanzhou Taibang Chemical Technology Co.
, Ltd.
's 250,000 tons/year plant is scheduled to be put into operation in the third quarter; Anhui Huaertai Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
plans to start production in the third quarter of its 150,000-ton/year plant
.
In terms of new caprolactam production capacity, Hualu Hengsheng’s 300,000 tons/year plant plans to start production from July to August; Pingmei Shenma plans to expand its capacity by 60,000 tons/year after September; Shanxi Yangmei plans to expand its capacity by 40,000 tons in August /Year; Heze Xuyang plans to expand capacity by 100,000 tons/year in July
.
Xue Dongmei believes that with the gradual introduction of new caprolactam and expansion of production capacity in the second half of the year, market competition will also intensify
.
Without the support from the demand side, the situation of low profits or even losses in the caprolactam and polymerization links will likely continue
.
Competition in the caprolactam industry is becoming more and more, and the absolute value of the price may still be higher than the first half of the year, but the profitability is expected to be weaker, and the company's raw and auxiliary materials supporting, large-scale and industrial chain advantages will continue to be highlighted
.
"On the whole, in the second half of the year, hydrogen peroxide will face the pressure of concentrated release of production capacity, and the main downstream demand may still face high cost and weak demand.
Whether the caprolactam industry chain conducts smoothly will affect whether its operation is good, and then cause the hydrogen peroxide market.
There is a risk of increased commodity volume at a certain stage
.
However, as an environmentally friendly product, domestic hydrogen peroxide will have a wider range of downstream applications that are worth exploring.
Therefore, it is expected that the price of hydrogen peroxide will not fall too much in the second half of the year
.
" Xue Dongmei analyzed
.
According to analysis by Tang Shasha, a hydrogen peroxide analyst at Zhuochuang Information, July to August is the traditional off-season for the lower reaches of hydrogen peroxide
.
At present, there are many caprolactam maintenance companies.
Due to the excessive increase in the first half of the year, the paper market has recently begun a rational correction
.
It is expected that downstream demand will pick up from September to October, but the overall market is oversupply relative to the newly added capacity
.
Therefore, in the second half of the year, the hydrogen peroxide market will not see a sharp rise and fall as in previous years.
It is expected that the later price will fluctuate within a narrow range of 800 to 900 yuan
.