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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Infection > Imperial College: Temperature increase can reduce the spread of the new coronavirus, but control measures still need to be taken

    Imperial College: Temperature increase can reduce the spread of the new coronavirus, but control measures still need to be taken

    • Last Update: 2021-06-16
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Recently, a study published in "PNAS" (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) by researchers from Imperial College London incorporated environmental data into the epidemiological model of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus for the first time
    .

    Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions, PNAS June 22, 2021  118  (25)  e2019284118;  https://doi.
    org/10.
    1073/pnas.
    2019284118

    Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions, PNAS June 22, 2021  118  (25)  e2019284118;  https://doi.
    org/10.
    1073/pnas.
    2019284118
    Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV -2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions, PNAS June 22, 2021  118  (25)  e2019284118;  https://doi.
    org/10.
    1073/pnas.
    2019284118
    https://doi.
    org/10.
    1073/pnas.
    2019284118

    As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the world, it is becoming more and more important to understand the factors that affect its spread
    .
    Seasonal changes driven by responses to changing environments have been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses

    .
    However, the impact of the environment on the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is still largely unknown, so seasonal changes are still a source of uncertainty in the prediction of the spread of SARS-CoV-2

    .

    R0 is affected by the environment, but public health policies such as isolation have greater impact

    R0 is affected by the environment, but public health policies such as isolation have greater impact

    The Imperial College research team solved this problem by evaluating the correlation between temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density and transmission rate (R) estimates
    .
    Using data from the United States, we use comparative regression and comprehensive epidemiological models to explore the correlation of transmission in various states in the United States
    .
    We found that policy interventions ("blockades") and reduced personal mobility are the main predictors of the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
    However, in the absence of these factors, lower temperatures and higher population densities are associated with SARS.
    -The increase in CoV-2 is related to the spread

    .

    The Imperial College research team solved this problem by evaluating the correlation between temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density and transmission rate (R) estimates
    .
    The Imperial College research team solved this problem by evaluating the correlation between temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density and transmission rate (R) estimates
    .

    The study shows that temperature and population density are the most important factors determining the ease of transmission of the virus, but the premise is that no action restrictions, such as isolation and blockade, are taken
    .
    Seasonal
    temperature changes have a much smaller impact on transmission than policy interventions.
    If people are still not vaccinated, the government should not abandon anti-epidemic policies such as blockade and social distancing

    .
    Therefore, summer weather cannot be considered as a substitute for mitigation policies, but in the absence of policy intervention or behavioral changes, lower temperatures in autumn and winter may lead to increased transmission intensity

    .

    The study shows that temperature and population density are the most important factors determining the ease of transmission of the virus, but the premise is that no action restrictions, such as isolation and blockade, are taken
    .
    The seasonal variation of
    the study shows that temperature and population density are the most important factors that determine the ease of transmission of the virus, but the premise is that no action restrictions, such as isolation and blockade, are taken
    .
    Seasonally

    Seasonal changes have always been a source of uncertainty in the spread of SARS-CoV-2
    .
    It is known that other viruses, such as influenza viruses and other coronaviruses, are affected by environmental factors

    .
    For example, high temperature and low humidity will reduce the spread of respiratory droplets, thereby preventing the spread of influenza

    .
    As we all know, high temperatures can also inactivate other coronaviruses in the air and on the surface

    .
    However, during a pandemic,
    it has been difficult to quantify the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet radiation (sunlight) on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, because human factors such as population density and behavior have been the main drivers of transmission
    .

    It has been difficult to quantify the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet radiation (sunlight) on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, because human factors such as population density and behavior have been the main drivers of transmission
    .
    It has been difficult to quantify the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet radiation (sunlight) on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, because human factors such as population density and behavior have been the main drivers of transmission
    .

    Differences in interventions and case counts between countries and regions also make it difficult to compare environmental factors on a global scale.
    In particular, some countries such as Brazil, India, and Iran have high transmission rates despite climate warming
    .
    Therefore, few epidemiological models contain environmental data, and it is assumed that SARS-CoV-2 responds the same as other coronaviruses because of the lack of SARS-CoV-2 specific data
    .

    In particular, some countries such as Brazil, India and Iran have a high transmission rate despite the warming of the climate
    .
    In particular, some countries such as Brazil, India and Iran have a high transmission rate despite the warming of the climate
    .

    Population density and temperature affect R0 at the state level in the United States, but the impact of the blockade is greater

    Population density and temperature affect R0 at the state level in the United States, but the impact of the blockade is greater

    The teams from Imperial College’s Department of Life Sciences and Mathematics, Imperial College’s Global Infectious Disease Analysis MRC Center, and Utah State University compared the transmission situation in the United States and filled this gap.
    The United States has a diverse climate and a similar number of policies and cases, so it can be sorted out.
    The impact of environmental factors

    .
    Finally found strong evidence: lower temperature and higher population density are related to higher SARS-CoV-2 transmission
    .

    Finally found strong evidence: lower temperature and higher population density are related to higher SARS-CoV-2 transmission
    .
    Finally found strong evidence: lower temperature and higher population density are related to higher SARS-CoV-2 transmission
    .

    Reduced average mobility required to ease differences in temperature and population density

    Reduced average mobility required to ease differences in temperature and population density

    The relative importance of temperature and population density as driving factors for R0

    The relative importance of temperature and population density as driving factors for R0

    However, although the effect of temperature is significant, it is small
    .
    In the team's model, the value of R decreases by approximately 0.
    04 every time the temperature increases in degrees Celsius

    .
    This means that a difference of 20ºC (such as the difference between winter and summer temperatures) may be equivalent to a difference in R of approximately 0.
    8

    .
    Any impact of the weather can be offset by public health interventions such as lockdowns
    .

    However, however, however, the effect of temperature, although significant, but small
    .
    In the team's model, the value of R decreases by approximately 0.
    04 every time the temperature increases in degrees Celsius

    .
    This means that a difference of 20ºC (such as the difference between winter and summer temperatures) may be equivalent to a difference in R of approximately 0.
    8

    .
    Although the effect of temperature is significant, it is small
    .
    In the team's model, the value of R decreases by approximately 0.
    04 every time the temperature increases in degrees Celsius

    .
    This means that a difference of 20ºC (such as the difference between winter and summer temperatures) may be equivalent to a difference in R of approximately 0.
    8

    .

    At the end of the article, it is stated that future forecasting work should consider using the environment to strengthen the forecast of disease transmission
    .
    In climates such as the continental United States in extreme heat and cold, we recommend that policy makers should assume that transmission will increase in winter (and possibly fall/autumn)

    .
    The time of the season can be widely predicted, so this is an area where proactive policies can be adopted instead of reactive policy responses after the occurrence.
    This research has a great reference for China's vast epidemic prevention policies

    .

    Future forecasting work should consider using the environment to strengthen the prediction of disease spread
    .
    In climates such as the continental United States in extreme heat and cold, we recommend that policy makers should assume that transmission will increase in winter (and possibly fall/autumn)

    .
    The time of the season can be widely predicted, so this is an area where proactive policies can be adopted instead of reactive policy responses after the occurrence.
    This research has a great reference for China's vast epidemic prevention policies

    .
    Future forecasting work should consider using the environment to strengthen the prediction of disease spread
    .
    In climates such as the continental United States in extreme heat and cold, we recommend that policy makers should assume that transmission will increase in winter (and possibly fall/autumn)

    .
    The time of the season can be widely predicted, so this is an area where proactive policies can be adopted instead of reactive policy responses after the occurrence.
    This research has a great reference for China's vast epidemic prevention policies

    .

    Reference: Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions PNAS June 22, 2021 118 (25) e2019284118;  https://doi.
    org/10.
    1073/pnas.
    2019284118

    References: Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions PNAS June 22, 2021 118 (25) e2019284118;  https://doi.
    org/10.
    1073/pnas.
    2019284118
    https://doi.
    org/10.
    1073/pnas.
    2019284118


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