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Recently, a study published in "PNAS" (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) by researchers from Imperial College London incorporated environmental data into the epidemiological model of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus for the first time
Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions, PNAS June 22, 2021118(25)e2019284118;https://doi.
Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions, PNAS June 22, 2021118(25)e2019284118;https://doi.
R0 is affected by the environment, but public health policies such as isolation have greater impact
R0 is affected by the environment, but public health policies such as isolation have greater impactThe Imperial College research team solved this problem by evaluating the correlation between temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density and transmission rate (R) estimates
The Imperial College research team solved this problem by evaluating the correlation between temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density and transmission rate (R) estimates
The study shows that temperature and population density are the most important factors determining the ease of transmission of the virus, but the premise is that no action restrictions, such as isolation and blockade, are taken
It has been difficult to quantify the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet radiation (sunlight) on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, because human factors such as population density and behavior have been the main drivers of transmission
In particular, some countries such as Brazil, India and Iran have a high transmission rate despite the warming of the climate
Population density and temperature affect R0 at the state level in the United States, but the impact of the blockade is greater
The teams from Imperial College’s Department of Life Sciences and Mathematics, Imperial College’s Global Infectious Disease Analysis MRC Center, and Utah State University compared the transmission situation in the United States and filled this gap.
Finally found strong evidence: lower temperature and higher population density are related to higher SARS-CoV-2 transmission
Reduced average mobility required to ease differences in temperature and population density
Reduced average mobility required to ease differences in temperature and population densityThe relative importance of temperature and population density as driving factors for R0
The relative importance of temperature and population density as driving factors for R0However, although the effect of temperature is significant, it is small
However, however, however, the effect of temperature, although significant, but small
Future forecasting work should consider using the environment to strengthen the prediction of disease spread
References: Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions PNAS June 22, 2021 118 (25) e2019284118; https://doi.
org/10.
1073/pnas.
2019284118 https://doi.
org/10.
1073/pnas.
2019284118
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