IMS: global pharmaceutical industry outlook in 2015

Source: Peking University wechat business 2014-9-261, global pharmaceutical industry expenditure 1, pharmaceutical expenditure by 2015, global pharmaceutical pointed out that it will reach 1.1 trillion US dollars, compared with the annual growth rate of 6.2% in the past five years, it is expected that the annual growth rate in the next five years will drop to 3-6% The growth of global total expenditure is expected to increase by US $210-240 billion on the basis of US $251 billion in 2005 2 Global market distribution by 2015, the share of the United States in the international pharmaceutical market will be reduced from 41% in 2005 to 31%, while the European countries, which are ranked fifth in the international pharmaceutical market share, will also be reduced from 20% to 13% At the same time, 17% of the high growth emerging markets will be led by China, whose share will rise from 12% in 2005 to 28% by 2015 3 The market share of products and patent expiring in the next five years will give birth to the market of non patent drugs The market share will rise from 20% in 2005 to 39% It is estimated that by 2015, the market share of non patent drugs will reach US $400-430 billion, 70% of which will be in developing countries 2、 New drugs and non patent drugs will become the main factors to promote the development of the pharmaceutical industry A The cost of generic drugs will increase by US $47 billion, with about 60% of the increase coming from existing generic drugs and the remaining 40% from new products available B It is estimated that by 2015, the expenditure on brand drugs will be as large as that in 2010 Revenue from protected brands will increase to 7-8%, about 3-4% of which is due to the increase of drug prices in the U.S region Due to the impact of the non patent drug market, most of the brand products, including the expected new product circulation, will be lower than that in the past five years 2 Currently and in the future, 30 vaccine products of medical method a that need to be focused on development are expected to be successfully developed from 2009 to 2013 At that time, the commercialization of these products will be conducive to promoting the development of drug market in 2010-2015 B What needs to be explained in detail is that a large number of research and development of diabetes drugs in different institutions will bring new choices for patients 3 Until 2015, when patent drugs expire, brand spending will be reduced by 120 billion US dollars A in the next five years, when patents expire, consumers in developed countries will be saved by 120 billion US dollars, of which non patent drugs will be saved by 22 billion US dollars, resulting in a decrease in patent dividends of 980 US dollars 4 The expenditure of non patent drugs will exceed 20% in most developed countries A the expenditure of patent drugs in the United States will be greatly inflated, but 7-8% of the profits will be brought by the newly made non patent drugs B Japan will maintain the market share of non patent drugs in developed countries with the lowest market share of non patent drugs, although they have issued incentive policies for the prescription and distribution of non patent drugs C South Korea will continue to increase the market share of generic drugs 5 Pharming's development market mainly comes from the non patent drug market It is estimated that the new drug expenditure of the country will reach 150 billion US dollars by 2015, about doubling Account for the total expenditure More than 20% of points are from brand products 3、 By 2015, the impact of policy change factors on this 1 Major policies in 2010 will have a long-term impact A the reasonable medical expenses act of American partners will expand the coverage of medical insurance B Under the new policy of protecting innovative products, Japan is the first to implement the price reduction program, advocating the balance between patented products and innovative drugs C Spain and Italy encourage increased use of generic drugs and reduced health system spending by substantially reducing the prices of generic and expired drugs D In the next year, Germany will implement mandatory cost-benefit assessment on the new drug market, which may limit the pricing and compensation of new drugs E China has implemented a price reduction system to ensure sustainable coverage of general medical insurance 2 Biopharmaceutics will develop rapidly, but so far its development is still relatively limited The international biological expenditure in 2010 was US $138 billion, of which US $311 million is applicable to bio generic drugs B A large number of biologics expenditures are in the United States Biologics that were approved in the early stage and concentrated in Germany and other European markets now account for 80% of international biologics expenditures C European guidelines for the approval of monoclonal antibodies will be approved by 2015 into a new molecular to compete in the market D New biological agents are expected to enter the U.S market in 2014 3 Rising rebates and discounts will increase by $5-10 billion a the number of discounts beyond invoices is expected to increase from $60-65 billion in 2010 to $65-75 billion B If discounts and rebates are as we therefore expect, net sales are expected to rise by $2100-230 billion Other studies predict $210-240 billion 4、 Main medical fields 1 Most of the growth of medical expenditure will slow down in the next five years A seven of the 20 treatments in the medical field will decrease in the next five years Only anti epilepsy therapy and treatment for osteoporosis will develop relatively rapidly in the future B Special drugs (such as those for cancer treatment) will continue to grow in the middle of the next five years, and the value of drugs will be improved by small improvement and expansion of applicable population C Due to the expiration of patent drugs and the lack of new treatment drugs, the growth of medical field is slowing down 2 By 2015, the global tumor disease expenditure will reach 750 US dollars A at present, target cell therapy technology has been adopted by most developed countries' markets, thus limiting the growth of individual patient expenditure B currently, the expenditure of 9.6 billion US dollars for malignant tumors will be directly impacted by non patent drugs C the growth of pharmaceutical market will be limited by traditional chemotherapy D products with high denotation potential will be the choice for treatment of high-risk tumor diseases, but they will not make significant contribution to the increase of expenditure 3 Global diabetes expenditure will increase by 4-7% a the number of people suffering from diabetes will increase, especially in pharmacy Countries such as China, India, Brazil, and people's habits and living conditions will increase the incidence rate of two kinds of diabetes B Due to its convenience and effectiveness, a large number of sales agents of antidiabetic drugs are expected C The current FDA guidelines on strengthening the risk monitoring of cardiovascular disease and cancer affect the use of abnormal drugs and delay the approval of new drugs by requiring additional clinical evidence 4 The growth rate of drug expenditure for respiratory diseases has dropped to 2-5% A patients and consumers are more willing to buy influential brand drugs due to the stable and efficient drugs B independent patent protection for oxygen respirators will continue to reduce direct competition C The main products impacted by non patent drugs include advair Diskus, The patents of seretide and Singulair, which occupy the international market, expire in 2011 and 2012 respectively, but they have the patent protection of their oxygen respirators, and their drugs point out that the impact will be relatively small 5 The expenditure of fat regulation drugs will decrease by 2-5% a the fat regulation drugs in the U.S market will be impacted by the non patent drugs in 2011 B the expiration of early patents has pushed most patients to the non patent medicine C the treatment methods in the next stage generally fail to pass the barrier of management system, and a few new brand goods are also expected 6 Due to the expiration of patent drugs, the growth rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease inhibitors decreased by 1-4% A new treatment methods, including direct renin inhibitors, and various combinations of existing non patent drugs, have been put in large quantities in recent years, but have not achieved a large range of use B The growth of the sick population will promote the large-scale growth of drug expenditure, but this growth will be significantly impacted by the non patent drugs, including the current market leader, Diovan company whose patent will expire in 2012