IMS: no one will run naked in the golden age of pharmaceutical industry

Source: Bio exploration 2014-12-18 China's economic slowdown has become a widely accepted fact As an integral part of China's national economy, the growth rate of China's pharmaceutical market is also slowing down For most people in the industry, you may think that 2014 was because of some events that made the market fall into the "cold winter" for many years However, looking back on the data of these years, we can find that the growth rate of Chinese medicine market has been slowing down since 2012 Since 2012, the growth rate of China's market has dropped from more than 20% to less than 20% In the next five years, the growth rate of 11% - 14% may become the normal With the tide off, it is inevitable that some people have been running naked for nearly five years, which can be called the "golden age" of China's pharmaceutical industry Pharmaceutical enterprises are living a relatively comfortable life However, in the next five years, "golden age" has gone forever There is still no answer to what kind of enterprise the future belongs to With the slowdown of industry growth, there will also be differentiation among pharmaceutical enterprises Some pharmaceutical enterprises adapt to the new environment and will continue to maintain double-digit growth; other pharmaceutical enterprises not only cannot maintain growth, but also their performance will decline While China's market has declined, the U.S pharmaceutical market has ushered in a long-awaited revival In 2018, the compound annual growth rate is expected to be 5-8%, higher than 3.6% in the past five years When the pharmaceutical companies have survived the patent cliff in 2012, innovative drugs are listed in large quantities In 2014, most pharmaceutical companies that have encountered the patent cliff have new drugs listed Due to the implementation of medical reform in the United States, the coverage of medical insurance has increased significantly With the change of disease spectrum in the United States, new market demand also provides the direction for pharmaceutical companies to develop in the future In contrast, China's pharmaceutical market is facing the challenge of slowing down growth, which lacks the driving force of the U.S market, that is, the whole society's environment to encourage innovation and huge medical investment At present, China is in the period of industry change, and the policy trend is generally "negative", which will become the sword of Damocles hanging on the head of pharmaceutical enterprises before it becomes clear From the current speed of new drug approval, we predict that it will be difficult for new drugs to be launched before 2018, and we can only rely on existing varieties to maintain the growth of business From the perspective of market access, the adjustment of medical insurance catalogue and the change of bidding system are in a chaotic state We still can't find the direction for the future There is no sign of relaxation in the anti-corruption of the pharmaceutical industry In the past, some common promotion methods of pharmaceutical enterprises could only be abandoned Some drugs that are not clinically necessary but sell well may experience a cold wave The change of price management ideas will bring about more subversive changes At present, it is difficult for multinational pharmaceutical companies to maintain their independent pricing status Once these super national treatment is lost, it means that multinational pharmaceutical companies need to comprehensively adjust their thinking in the general drug market Finding the right outlet still eliminates some negative factors As the most important emerging market, the Chinese market still has an irresistible magic power for pharmaceutical companies investing in China With the rapid growth of China's economy in the past 30 years, aging, urbanization and lifestyle changes have brought about significant changes in the disease spectrum, at the same time, patients' ability to pay has also been greatly improved At present, China still has a large number of unmet medical needs Although the policy is full of uncertainty, it can be predicted that the policy will converge in one direction, that is to continue to improve the accessibility of medical services With the incidence rate of diseases in China now, if the patients with hypertension and diabetes increase at the present rate, it will take only 3 to 5 years Now the crowding in public hospitals in China will be countless times However, there are still a large number of patients in China who have not been treated or even diagnosed These people are distributed in the vast rural market, which is the largest growth point of the pharmaceutical industry in the next 10-15 years If the pharmaceutical enterprises want to do well in this field, they can no longer keep to the rules and regulations, but should adopt some business model innovation Different from the United States, we can no longer expect the government to increase investment to drive the improvement of medical consumption However, the government has promised to continue to invest in medical reform, and the increase can be expected For pharmaceutical companies, the change of disease spectrum in the future is also the key to grasp In the past five years, treatment fields such as cardiovascular, diabetes and cancer have brought huge returns to pharmaceutical companies involved However, now the hot fields have begun to gradually transition to respiratory diseases, immunosuppressive drugs, blood diseases, skin diseases, etc if you want to be a winner in the future Chinese market, you need to introduce new products according to the characteristics of the Chinese market.