In 2014, the number of new drugs surged, but the revenue did not increase

Source: there is a "Moore's law" in the IT field of new Kangjie / dayinrushang 2015-3-23, which means that the semiconductor price will become cheaper and the performance will become better It can also be simply understood as follows: the performance of computers that can be purchased for each dollar will more than double every 18-24 months If the processing capacity of computers at the same price doubles every two years, the price of computer processing devices will be halved in the same period It can be said that there is also a "Moore's law" in the field of drug research and development: since 1950, for every billion dollars invested in the field of drug research and development, the number of drugs approved by the U.S FDA will decrease about once every nine years The above opinions come from an article published in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery in March 2012 by three securities analysts and a venture capitalist, which has attracted the keen attention of the pharmaceutical industry As described in the article, the R & D momentum of the pharmaceutical industry seems to have returned According to Boston Consulting Group, 2014 is a good year for new drug research and development In 2012, the number of new drugs approved by the FDA of the United States increased a lot compared with the previous years, the number was still high in 2013, and the number in 2014 showed a blowout, reproducing the prosperity of 1996 The number of drugs returned: the number of drugs approved by FDA has finally broken the 1996 record of Source:Boston Consulting Group We might as well regard "Moore's law" in a happy way Moore's law has been abolished, and the pharmaceutical industry has returned to power, which is called "foam" biotechnology, but it is a rational speculation about the prosperity of the pharmaceutical industry Boston Consulting Group forecasts that the sum of peak sales of FDA approved drugs in 2014 is lower than the sum of peak sales of approved drugs in 2013, or even less than the sum of peak sales of approved drugs in 1996 (the year when the number of previously approved drugs peaked) In other words, more and more drugs have been approved, but many drugs are aimed at a small number of patients, generally orphan disease, special cancer In fact, the authors Jack w Scannell, Alex blanckley and Helen Boldon have predicted the above phenomena in the pharmaceutical industry in 2012 Part of the reason for this is that drug developers tend to develop drugs for rare disease populations For the pharmaceutical industry, this is better than no new drugs But it also indicates that the trend of high investment and low income in the field of pharmaceutical research and development will continue, although Moore's law will not stand firm in the next few years In this article, Jack w Scannell gives the following explanations for the trend of high investment and low income in the pharmaceutical industry: 1 It's good to have a record No matter how the income is, most of the blockbuster drugs that come out now are low-cost generic drugs, so even if a new drug that is more effective for diseases or symptoms is developed, it's difficult for doctors to prescribe or insurance companies to pay 2 Compared with the past, the rigorous examination and approval of drug clinical trials and approvals are becoming more and more difficult 3 It has become a trend that pharmaceutical companies will not allocate R & D funds reasonably, but waste too much 4 Basic research preference in recent ten years, pharmaceutical companies have invested a lot in the research of molecular biotechnology, and invested a lot in large-scale screening technology However, these screening technologies may be more inefficient than most of the previous test methods Article 1 is a big problem faced by the pharmaceutical industry; as for Article 2, the U.S FDA has made great efforts to encourage the research and development of orphan drugs for a small number of patients; Article 3 In recent years, many large pharmaceutical companies have begun to cut their R & D costs, which means that they may waste less on R & D, but it also means that the number of new drug R & D is reduced; Article 4, basic research methods start to produce more new drugs, but they do not serve the public