In recent years, the gene sequencing industry has developed rapidly, attracting a large number of capital and enterprises to enter.
at present, in the industry upstream instrument and equipment link, foreign enterprises have a significant competitive advantage, and in the domestic gene sequencing and application of the terminal field of Huada gene competitiveness is strong.
However, gene sequencing technology in the terminal application field has not yet achieved full promotion, the future development still has a huge imagination space.
here to learn about the current situation, market size and competitive landscape of China's gene sequencing industry in 2019.
Panorama: Wide range of downstream applications, but not yet fully popularized from the gene sequencing industry panorama, the main package of gene sequencing industry chain includes upstream instruments, midstream service providers and downstream terminal applications three links, the industry chain seems simple, but its downstream terminal applications involve a wide range of areas, including the medical field of human genome, human microbial genome and basic research fields, including non-medical field environmental governance, oil storage detection, agricultural and animal husbandry.
, however, the current application of gene sequencing in the end-user has not been fully popularized, which is mainly limited by the development process of technology and maturity.
since the advent of the first generation of DNA sequencing (Sanger method), there are now four generations of gene sequencing methods on the market, but the third and fourth generation technology is still in its infancy and has not yet been fully commercially available.
and since 2005, second-generation gene sequencing technology has led the industry to rapid growth, and because of its high throughput, low cost, short sequencing time and many other advantages, the second generation sequencing (NGS) still dominates the global sequencing market.
specifically, the cost of second-generation technology has decreased significantly compared to the next generation, and the time for sequencing individual genomes has been reduced from 3 years to less than one week, significantly reducing sequencing time.
the third/fourth generation technology compared with the second generation technology read length increase, while the sequencing process is simplified, reduce error introduction and sequencing time, the application field is obviously expanded, the sequence of detectable RNA, methylated DNA sequence, etc. , and has obvious advantages for ctDNA sequencing, single cell sequencing, etc.
in the future, whole genome sequencing is an inevitable trend, RNA sequence, methylated DNA sequence and other new needs of sequencing will be met, the third generation, fourth generation gene sequencing technology will gradually rise, gene sequencing products will be fully promoted in the field of application.
market size: the potential market space is huge, the Chinese market in 2020 will be close to 10 billion technological progress to expand product applications, but also will promote the cost of gene sequencing to reduce, gradually break the price of clinical applications, thereby creating a huge commercial value.
according to NIH, the cost of sequencing whole genomes and monogenes fell sharply between 2001 and 2015.
for example, the first-generation sequencer genome sequencing cost about $10 million, and after Illumina launched HiSeqX Ten in 2013, the cost of genome sequencing fell below $1,000.
the decline in the commercial cost of gene sequencing, directly driving the market application of technology.
in recent years, the market for gene sequencing has expanded rapidly.
global perspective, the industry market size expanded year by year from 2010 to 2017, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.79 percent.
2018, the global gene sequencing market continues to grow, with a conservative estimate of about $11.7 billion.
in addition, although gene sequencing has not yet been popularized in end-use applications, it is expected that the human genome market scale will reach 100 billion levels in the future, basic research and non-medical fields will reach the level of 10 billion, the market space is very broad.
and from the domestic market, in recent years, China's gene sequencing industry has also been rapid development.
currently, there are 10 enterprises (or institutions) with Illumina HiSeq X Ten (currently the highest sequencing flux and lowest sequencing cost sequencing platform) in China, with a total of 11 sequencing platforms, each capable of completing a high-depth whole genome sequencing of about 18,000 people per year, and the introduction and commercialization of equipment has greatly contributed to the development of the industry.
overall, in 2007-2017, China's gene sequencing industry market size growth rate is higher than the global level, the annual compound growth rate of 47.5%;
conservativeestimate that the domestic gene sequencing industry market size in 2018 reached 8 billion yuan.
and according to the National "13th Five-Year Plan" for scientific and technological innovation development (2016-2020), it is proposed to establish a forward-looking queue of millions of healthy people and patients with key diseases, that is, to build a large-scale Chinese group genetic queue map.
according to Huada Gene's calculations, a person's life health-related data together about 10TB, then a million people's data is about 10EX, of which about 1% is an effective interpretation of genetic data, sequencing costs $0.014 / mega (exchange rate of 1 U.S. dollar . . . 6.7 yuan), conservatively estimated that by 2020 China's gene sequencing industry market will reach about 9.8 billion yuan, the next few years domestic gene sequencing market demand.
the current situation of investment: policies to help the development of genetic sequencing, industry investment enthusiasm in fact, in fact, the state in addition to the relevant development plans, but also promulgated a number of regulations and policies to regulate the development of the industry at the same time, but also created a good policy environment.
for example, in 2007, the state key to guide non-invasive production testing into clinical applications, opened the beginning of the rapid growth of the gene sequencing market;
there is no doubt that the broad market development prospects, coupled with the help of policies, will inevitably attract a large influx of capital.
from the current situation of investment in the industry, in November 2017-2018, China's gene sequencing industry, a total of 21 major investment and financing events;
thus, the current gene sequencing industry is in the wind, investment enthusiasm is high.
the competitive landscape: the upstream market foreign enterprises oligarch competition, Huada gene in the domestic market advantage is significant of course, the entry of capital will certainly promote the industry competition.
, despite the large number of competitors in the gene sequencing industry, especially in midstream service providers, there are not many truly strong competitors.
As shown in the Panorama (Chart 1), there are few and varied major competitors in the upper, middle and downstream segments of the gene sequencing industry, as well as in specific subdivisions.
- the upstream market by foreign enterprises monopoly, policy to guide domestic sequencer imports instead of upstream equipment, reagents, supplies and other supply links, a typical oligopoly competition pattern.
, the second-generation sequencer still dominates the market, and after 2017, with the help of the HiSeq series of sequencers upgrades and promotion, Illumina continues to eat into the market share of other manufacturers, gradually forming a unique situation.
2018, Illumina's market share has grown to 84%, the highest, LifeTech and Roche's market share is more than 5%, relatively large, and 454 Life Sciences, Pacific Biosciences and other companies are also competitive.
and from the domestic point of view, according to statistics, china only 11 enterprises involved in sequencing equipment manufacturing, only 25 enterprises involved in supplies and reagents, including more competitive enterprises have Huada Gene, Zixin Pharmaceuticals and Da'an Gene.
it is worth mentioning that although the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in the upstream link of gene sequencing is generally weak, but the guidance of national policy will help domestic gene sequencer import substitution.
for example, on April 11, 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission and other eight ministries jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Demonstration Application of The First (Set) of Major Technical Equipment" to address the difficult yinofing of the first "high-throughput gene sequencer", improve hospital confidence in the quality of domestic instruments, and gradually form a virtuous circle of domestic substitution of imports.
the competition of mid-stream competitors, local enterprises occupying the local market and the upstream of the industrial chain monopolized by multinational manufacturers, the overall competition in the gene testing industry chain is more intense.
to China's gene sequencing service market as an example, in recent years, China's large and small sequencing services, showing a brutal growth trend, there are now more than 200 institutions engaged in gene sequencing services related business, mainly in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Suzhou and other economically developed areas, the competition is very fierce.
globally, the global market for gene sequencing services is generally dominated by local gene sequencing services.
specifically, in terms of gene sequencing services, the main gene sequencing services in the United States are Sequenom, Verinata Health, Ariosa Diagnostics and Natera, etc.;
and bio-inciddal analysis, leading foreign companies include CLOBio, NEXTBIO, Biomatter and other professional gene sequencing data analysis companies, as well as data analysis companies including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, etc.;
downstream competition is still in its infancy, Huada gene advantage is remarkable at present, for the gene sequencing downstream application terminal field, gene sequencing technology has not been fully promoted, market competition is mainly concentrated in the medical field.
, like sequencing services, huada gene in the domestic market also has a clear competitive advantage;
development trend: the advantages of gene detection liquid biopsy technology is obvious, tumor liquid biopsy or will become the main application direction of gene sequencing from the previous mentioned, the current gene sequencing is mainly used in the medical field, and genetic detection in the liquid biopsy mask has obvious technical advantages, making tumor liquid biopsy become one of the main application direction semens of gene sequencing.
specific point of view, compared with the traditional tumor diagnosis method, tumor liquid biopsy has the advantage of being able to detect tumors at an early stage, high accuracy, so as to achieve the goal of early detection and early treatment, conservatively estimate the permeability of tumor liquid biopsy 1-2%, then the tumor liquid biopsy market space can reach at least 75 billion yuan.
liquid biopsy (CTC/ctDNA technology) has a clear advantage over other genetic testing techniques, using non-invasive blood tests to monitor circulating tumor cells (CTC) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) fragments released into the blood, providing personalized and efficient diagnosis and treatment throughout the tumor treatment process.
thus, through the gene sequencing liquid biopsy to achieve the early accurate diagnosis of tumors and provide efficient treatment options, is expected to greatly improve the survival rate of tumor patients, the future tumor liquid biopsy will become one of the most promising applications of gene sequencing, driving the rapid development of gene sequencing industry.
Source: Forward-Looking Industrial Research Institute.