In 2020 the birth of 22 hundred billion enterprises under the new high point of the pharmaceutical industry, who is next?

In 2020, under the strong growth of the pharmaceutical industry, what kind of enterprises will become the next hundred billion market value pharmaceutical enterprises? On August 7th the record for the largest IPO by an Asian biopharmaceutical company was set again.
on the same day, Tiger Pharma listed on the main board of Hong Kong stocks, becoming the third "A-H" listed CRO after pharmaceutical Mingkangde and Kanglonghua, and also becoming the next 100 billion market capitalization potential shares.
close on the same day, Tiger Pharma closed at HK$113.3 with a market capitalisation of HK$97 billion.
In the Hong Kong stock market, the first day performance of Tiger Pharma is not easy, looking back at A-shares, we can find that in 2020 China's pharmaceutical industry hit an all-time high, but also gave birth to the industry's unprecedented market value of more than 200 billion enterprises.
billion is a threshold, and this threshold before and after the development of China's pharmaceutical industry forward a mark.
In the first half of 2018, pharmaceutical stocks were strong, with a total of five A-share pharmaceutical stocks worth more than $100 billion in late May of that year, namely Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Kangmei Pharmaceuticals, Yunnan White Medicine, Fosun Pharmaceuticals, Pharmaceutical Mingkangde, and Shanghai Leith, Eyre Ophthalmology, Zhifei Bio, Meiyin Health, etc.
hong Kong stocks, in mid-2018, the market value of HK$100 billion is also stone pharmaceutical group, China Biopharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharma and Pharmaceuticals.
However, after entering the second half of the year, the A-share pharmaceutical unit by the long-term biological vaccine fraud, Huahai Pharmaceuticals Pythatan RAW drug incident, the United States health "fake medical door" and other effects, there is a situation of mourning every place.
after a series of Black Swan incidents, as of late August 2018, there were only two companies with a market capitalisation of 100 billion yuan, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals and Kangmei Pharmaceuticals.
But with it, the implementation of the national volume procurement, Kangmei pharmaceutical industry thunderstorms, fiscal and tax verification, health care negotiations and other historic events, once hundreds of billions of enterprises Kangmei due to 30 billion financial fraud fell to the altar, and the leader Hengrui is more dominant, stable market, the market value from 300 billion rapidly rose to 500 billion, the pharmaceutical industry in the transformation of differentiation, while certainty is increasingly obvious.
just before the end of 2019, the market value of A-shares rose back to five, Hong Kong shares are also the same as five, Hengrui, China Bio, Shi medicine group, pharmaceutical system several leading position is more stable.
2020, under special circumstances, the number of pharmaceutical companies with A-shares and Hong Kong shares exceeding the market value of 100 billion has doubled to an unprecedented 22.
this article focuses on pharmaceutical companies.
01.01 billion market value Guoxin Securities, Haitong Securities and other brokerage analysis that the 2020 epidemic led to the relevant pharmaceutical stocks performance and valuation have been improved, 2015-2019 pharmaceutical listed companies have shown a greater differentiation, innovative pharmaceutical industry leader valuation is gradually differentiated, high-quality enterprises and industrial upgrading of the certainty is becoming clearer.
In addition to the old star stocks such as Changchun High-tech and Fosun Pharma, which will break through the market value by 2020, there are several new shares for 2020, such as Junshi Bio, Wanta Bio and Gan Li Pharmaceuticals, which briefly exceeded 100 billion market capitalization.
, Junshi listed on the first day of the market value of more than 100 billion, and Gan Li also used less than half a month.
but the new shares have been questioned to some extent.
first, the listings of these new shares appeared at the highs of the pharmaceutical industry.
second, on the policy side, the strategic purchase of health insurance has profoundly affected the industry, and only innovation can access opportunities has become the industry consensus.
look at Gan Li Pharmaceuticals and Junshi Bio, it is not difficult to see why its market value has been questioned.
the field of diabetes cultivated by Gan Li Pharmaceuticals has become the next step in the purchase of health insurance strategies.
Diabetics as one of several major chronic diseases, the number of its patients is huge, the burden of medication is heavy, oral first-line drug metformin has been included in the national collection, and the National Health Insurance Administration of the news also suggests that insulin may become the next target.
In addition, the diabetes market is currently dominated by multinational pharmaceutical companies such as Sanofi, Noor and Nordisker and Lilly, and although Gan Li's market share is high, it is difficult to hide the huge gap, and in terms of price advantage over foreign capital is small, it is difficult to quickly increase market share in the short term.
the same time, in recent years, multinational pharmaceutical companies have made great efforts to develop new sugar-lowering drugs, which have achieved great success in the global market, and Gan Li Pharmaceuticals' research and development on the next generation of products is still a long way off.
innovation advantages are not reflected.
therefore, from a policy or innovation perspective, Gan Li Pharmaceuticals has failed to demonstrate its reasons for high valuations.
as for Junshi Bio, only one PD-1 has been approved so far, and during the outbreak its new crown and antibody has been recognized by foreign giants, and a large amount of cooperation has been reached.
Thus, whether Junshi can now rely on a PD-1 and 770 million revenues to support the market value of hundreds of billions, this is the market's question, after all, its market value in Hong Kong shares is currently less than 50 billion.
"no company is always undervalued, and no company is always overvalued."
, chief analyst at Haitong Securities, said in a report that product volume is the most important criterion in the short term.
, it is clear that Gan Li Pharmaceuticals and Junshi Bio typically represent two types of Chinese pharmaceutical companies: the emerging Biotech and the traditional local pharmaceutical companies.
and they also have their own core products, Junshi PD-1 is in the release stage.
although the successful enterprises shown in history are nothing more than solid leaders and Biotech with unique skills, but China's national conditions emerged more are imitation enterprises.
02. Need more than just a PD-1 Shengang Securities believes that, although China's national conditions decided that imitation is still promising, but the mindless to do real innovation of imitation enterprises will inevitably allow themselves and Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Hansen Pharmaceuticals, China Biopharmaceuticals, Stone Pharmaceutical Group, Qilu Pharmaceuticals, these companies have formed a clear head advantage in the domestic competition, then from the perspective of long-term certainty and subtransor logic, these head drug companies are much better investment targets.
current policy environment, companies that cultivate heavy products on their pipelines are clearly better able to make their own blood to support research and acquisitions.
, for example, Hengrui, has three products approved and expected to be approved in 2019-2020, including one with an annual sales peak of $3 billion and two of which are expected to reach $5-3 billion.
the same logic of enterprises are Chinese biopharmaceuticals, stone medicine, Hansen and so on.
and for Biotech, more than one PD-1 is needed.
the current domestic Biotech most of the products have not been approved, a small number of products to achieve the market is only one or two products.
In the current more than 20 hundred billion market capitalization enterprises, belong to Biotech in addition to Junshi is Baiji Shenzhou, and Baiji Shenzhou through its strong commercial negotiation capacity, access to a large number of pipeline assets, coupled with the continuous addition of its own research and development pipeline, accumulated a deep wealth.
but there is only one in Baiji Shenzhou, and most Biotech's short-term goals are bound to be to rapidly advance clinical and product release.
, Junshi, Xinda and other enterprise products approved less than two years, in the short term, the external judgment still needs to be reflected through its sales performance.
the current Junshi, Xinda's first product - PD-1 single resistance to achieve sales of about one billion.
continue to look for large varieties and the ability to continue to grow is a key factor in their recognition by investors and high valuations.
history has long shown that the status of head drug companies is very stable, almost will not be shaken by the backers.
start-ups want to achieve long-term survival and rise in an industry that is already a giant, with more than one heavy bomb product and a unique stunt in research and development.
e.g. Baiji Shenzhou, which has a market capitalization of hundreds of billions of dollars, already has two core products of PD-1 and BTK inhibitors on its self-research pipeline, and PARP inhibitors have also submitted their applications for listing, and have established a large-scale research and development team headed by Academician Wang Xiaodong and their own research and development features to build their own hard core.
problem, however, is that it is difficult to quantify the technology platform.
is also why some of China's excellent technology platform Biotech enterprises, in order to finance but had to deliberately hard together the pipeline reasons.
Shengang Securities believes that this kind of capital market practice valuation ideas and the company's real core elements of the deviation, will become Biotech enterprises can not be ignored the source of determinative investment income.
03. Seize the next wave of opportunities from a longer-term perspective, Yu Wenshe believes that platform-based enterprises are better investment objects.
, quantity and clinical speed are critical in research and development, and the importance of sales is unquestionable, and it is a good time to take advantage of opportunities such as PD-1 to build capacity.
is more important to build on these advantages and seize them when the next wave of drug discovery opportunities arises.
but she doesn't deny that voucher drugs alone can be approved by investors, but that they require greater value-mining capabilities.
China's Biotech is on the rise, but for them, the development and refinement of the technology platform behind research and development itself is crucial, which is also the source of the production of heavy-weight products.
when existing giants acquire the technology research and development system behind pipelines through mergers and acquisitions, rather than just acquiring a certain area of the product, the existing giants often acquire the technology research and development system behind the pipeline.
there is no doubt that technology is a prerequisite for development.
Junshi Biological in China's first self-walking PD-1 monoantigen from the front-end design to the back-end industrialization of the full set of links, antibody design capabilities have been verified, and the future pipeline assets and research and development capabilities are the key to support its long-term sustainable development and market value of 100 billion.
but China's pharmaceutical industry is calling not only hundreds of billions of market cap enterprises, but also really can be based on the global enterprise.
the next wave of drug discovery opportunities is a key factor in the real rise of start-ups.
is the answer given by history: the emergence of companies that have emerged at a particular stage is inextricable to the context of the era of technological progress.
the rise of gene Tek, Amgen, Regenerative Meta and Biogen is undoubtedly the product of the great development of life science.
development of recombinant DNA technology, hybrid tumor and other antibody technology is the background of the rise of these companies.
In their entrepreneurial stage, PCR instrument has not been invented, recombinant DNA technology and hybrid tumor technology and other current very conventional technology at that time is not easy to do, so that recombinant protein drugs, mono-anti-drug as the representative of the biological drugs at that time is a real virgin land - so first come first 1st, see who has the technical strength to go to the nuggets first.
is the dividend that the times have given biopharmaceutical companies.
In short, companies with several heavyweight products, their own hard-core research and development capabilities, and ultimately the opportunities of the times, we need to describe it not only by market capitalisation, but also by greatness."
References: 1 Yu Wenshen, Haitong Securities, "Pharmaceutical Industry: Finding Big Varieties and Sustained Growth" 2 Shengang Securities, "Special Research on the Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry: Determinism Analysis of biotech's Rise"