In 2020, the development of the pharmaceutical industry will present three major trends

[pharmaceutical network industry trends] looking back on the past year, for pharmaceutical enterprises, some have unlimited development prospects, others are expected to shrink in the market or the company's profits do not meet expectations The logic is based on policy orientation, which is also the necessity of the industry Based on the relevant events and data in 2019, the author forecasts the development direction of the pharmaceutical industry in 2020, which will be a reference for you In recent years, the chain effect of volume purchasing will continue, and the focus of the industry is not volume purchasing Since the implementation of the national and even local policies on volume procurement, industrial opportunities have gradually concentrated on the industry leaders to reflect the head group advantage At the same time, many pharmaceutical companies reduce prices under the pressure of policies, and gradually start to change the sales mode After all, only by saving sales costs can enterprises obtain reasonable profits, which is also one of the original intention of volume purchase According to the relevant situation and impact of the second batch of belt purchase, the country will establish a normalized and institutionalized belt purchase system in the future, and continue to take action to reduce the drug price and reduce the drug burden of the people And its irreversible transformation mode will affect most generic pharmaceutical enterprises, high-value consumables, Zhongcheng drugs and injections, and the tendency to the head enterprises will let its growth run through the whole policy In fact, from the past three quarterly reports and annual reports, the performance growth of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises and cro / cdmo enterprises is showing rapid growth China's cdmo business has maintained rapid growth in recent years According to frost Sullivan, the market size of China's cro industry has rapidly increased from $2.1 billion in 2014 to $5.9 billion in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 29% It is estimated that by 2023, the domestic cro market will reach US $21.4 billion At the same time, national policy and tax double concessions also allow local innovation drug development enterprises to usher in golden opportunity In addition, the medical insurance catalogue will accelerate the introduction of innovative drugs, and innovative pharmaceutical enterprises will further accelerate market share after passing the medical insurance, which will lead to new drugs becoming the core theme of the pharmaceutical industry With the policy trend of evaluation, purchasing with quantity and medical insurance negotiation, it will become a trend for prevention and control drug companies to return to the chemical manufacturing industry The industry is also likely to further focus on the high-profile segment innovation areas with policy advantages, and is more willing to give a higher valuation premium Medical insurance policy is very important to the development direction of the industry The author believes that the market space and scale of the pharmaceutical industry is determined by the level of social financing and payment ability, rather than the so-called yearning and demand for health and a better life The aging makes the demand of medical market increase, but the technological progress and social efficiency improvement are not as expected The reduction of labor force makes it difficult for social wealth to support the demand of rapid growth The result is stronger government intervention to promote the industry to provide more products and services at a limited cost In this process, health insurance will play a crucial role According to the data, in 2018, the overall income of medical insurance was 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 13% year-on-year; the expenditure of medical insurance was 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 17% year-on-year By the end of 2018, the accumulated balance of basic medical insurance had reached 2.3 trillion yuan, and the payment guarantee multiple of medical insurance balance fund was about 15.8 months From January to may 2019, the income of medical insurance fund increased by 17.25% year on year, and the expenditure of medical insurance fund increased by 21.38%, still maintaining a rapid growth From the perspective of overall development and rigid characteristics of health care expenditure, health care will still face the pressure of expenditure structure adjustment in 2020 And relevant policies may continue to be introduced, which will have a continuous and variable impact on the development of the pharmaceutical industry.