In the era of surplus, how does the coal industry fight "zombies"?

Recently, it is reported that some experts and relevant departments have proposed that the country introduce minimum price measures for the coal industry to ease the pressure on the coal industry to get out of trouble
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The author’s first reaction to this incident is "what age is it, and I have to rely on the minimum protection of the government to live a life", my personal judgment: this is really impossible, and it is unnecessary! Of course, as a member of the coal industry, in recent years, I feel deeply about the industry The pain, the difficulty of selling
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He also deeply understands the various measures taken by industry associations to protect the interests of the coal industry
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But no one can control the market, especially in the case of excess coal production capacity, to propose a minimum protection price is obviously an unrealistic wish, and it does not conform to the laws of the market
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So early this month, at the iron and steel coal industry meeting in Taiyuan, Shanxi to resolve excess production capacity, some people in the coal industry expressed the hope that the country will formulate minimum price limits for the coal industry to ensure the stable operation of the coal industry
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It was vetoed by relevant leaders on the spot: the market should be used to force production capacity to exit, and price limits should not be introduced
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For many years, the data that has been plagued by the coal industry is the real data on production capacity, some 5.
5 billion tons, some 4.
5 billion tons, some 6 billion tons, but recently we have seen that the coal "household" has finally appeared
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According to the "Moujiadi" data recently released by the China Coal Association, as of the end of 2015, the total coal mine production capacity in the country was 5.
7 billion tons, of which the normal production and transformation capacity was 3.
9 billion tons, and the newly-built and expanded production capacity was 14.
96.
100 million tons, of which more than 800 million tons are unauthorized illegal production capacity
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What this set of data makes us feel is not a surprise, or optimism, but a deep concern: According to an estimate of 3.
5 billion tons of coal consumption in 2015, China’s coal production capacity exceeds 2.
2 billion tons! 2.
2 billion tons! What is this concept? Let's analyze it: it accounts for 62.
8% of the normal demand, which means that it is 62.
8% more than the normal demand! It is close to the consumption of coal demand for 7 and a half months, which means that the national coal mines stop production for 7.
5 months and can still meet social demand! To reduce the production capacity of 2.
2 billion tons, if the existing large state-owned mines use 10,000 people per 10 million tons, 2.
58 million coal mine workers will be transferred and transferred.
This is a huge group! Behind the data, it is enough to make people shudder.
! With the introduction of the “supply-side structural reform” policy, the “de-capacity” task of industries with serious overcapacity such as coal and steel has become particularly urgent and arduous
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We cannot expect the country to protect the huge and backward production capacity.
Adhering to the direction of price marketization is the way out
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Then, how the coal industry faces the battle against "zombie companies" in the industry is the key to reducing production capacity and the main means to implement supply-side reforms
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First of all, we must use the power of policy to eliminate illegal production capacity from the market
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We see that there are 800 million tons of coal production capacity that belong to illegal production capacity.
The occurrence of illegal production capacity was left over from the hot coal market in the past few years, and it is also the capacity that government departments are most capable of solving
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Private digging, private mining, no production conditions, local individuals are rushing, a batch of illegal coal mines are still in production, so the so-called "black coal" that can be sold without billing in many places is illegal production and tax evasion
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In particular, the government must be ruthless and genuine to completely eliminate illegal coal mines from the market
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Dealing with zombie companies is the main focus on the supply side
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What is a zombie company? It does not produce benefits, but also has a lot of resources.
It simply maintains production by bank loans.
Once the bank stops lending, it will die.
It is like a patient wearing a ventilator.
It is actually brain dead.
Look.
It looks like a person is alive, and the others will die immediately as soon as the shouting machine stops
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The same is true for zombie companies
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We have seen that the State Council has arranged for the SASAC to make the disposal of "zombie companies" its second major task this year.

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This is a hurdle that cannot be circumvented, and it is also a necessary operation
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Needless to say, there are many zombie companies in the coal industry
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Some coal mines cost more than 400 yuan/ton, and coal prices are around 240 yuan/ton.
With the increase in mining depth, the cost is still under upward pressure.
However, the state provides support for thousands of employees, and bank loans cannot be stopped.
The mine can still live like a zombie
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The debt-to-asset ratio has long been as high as 80%, and it simply does not have the conditions for market competition
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But it is like a nitro patient with a ventilator, who can neither die nor survive
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The coal group must also reconsider the market and completely shut down mines that do not have the conditions for survival
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It is necessary to make full use of national policy funds to arrange personnel
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Recently, it is reported that the central government will allocate 100 billion yuan, and the first phase may arrange 30 billion yuan.
"Zombie companies" mainly used in the steel and coal industries will exit outdated production capacity
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The coal industry must make full use of policy funds to completely shut down and transfer outdated production capacity due to insolvency, over-employment, hopelessness, continuous losses, dangerous mines, and backward production capacity
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Of course, in the implementation strategy, the policy level must strengthen the hard constraints of environmental protection, energy consumption, quality, and safety, and cooperate with the use of economic means such as price leverage, and use market methods to promote the resolution of overcapacity
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The previous reorganization of the government's lalang allocation should stop
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Why are large coal mines unwilling to reduce production? There is too much helplessness
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It is difficult for us to see that under the difficulties of the coal industry, large-scale enterprises rarely see signs of large-scale production cuts, which on the other hand makes the contradiction between supply and demand in the coal industry more serious
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That is, there is no reasonable exit mechanism for coal mines
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The national management level must change the performance evaluation mechanism of coal mines.
Instead of using capacity as a hero or output as a strength or weakness, it must create requirements for supply-side reforms, focusing on cleaning up zombie companies, shutting down ineffective companies, and transferring jobs
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Is it still necessary to take a big loss in the world’s top 500 companies to gain a foothold in the world? What needs to be changed for supply-side reforms? One of the main tasks is to reduce production capacity.

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From a deeper perspective, this round of coal market decline is an inevitable trend for industrial structure upgrading, energy structure optimization, and industrial civilization development.
Reducing non-fossil energy and reducing consumption are also the international obligations of major countries
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For coal companies to get out of the predicament, the fundamental way out is to increase the withdrawal of backward production capacity, participate in global market competition, and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises
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