Industry | 24 trillion infrastructure is here, this time is really different!

The big move to stabilize the economy has come.
According to reports, up to now, 15 provinces including Henan, Yunnan, Fujian, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Hebei, etc.
have launched investment plans for key projects.
The investment scale in 2020 will exceed 6 trillion yuan, of which 9 provinces have announced the total investment scale simultaneously.
, The total amount exceeds 24 trillion yuan.
In only 9 provinces, the total investment scale exceeds 24 trillion, and the total investment scale of the country may exceed imagination.
In the face of unexpected shocks, infrastructure development will undoubtedly effectively stabilize the economy.
As we all know, investment, consumption, and export can be described as the "troika" of the economy.
Consumption corresponds to domestic demand, and export corresponds to external demand.
When the epidemic spreads to the world, both domestic and external demand are affected, and investment becomes the top priority of stabilizing the economy.
This is reminiscent of the "4 trillion investment" in 2008, and it also reminds me of the subsequent housing price rises and new highs.
What's the difference this time? First, the “4 trillion investment” at the time was accompanied by unprecedented monetary easing, and the stimulus was all-round.
This time, the monetary policy is still relatively cautious.
 More than a decade ago, the growth rate of total broad money M2 reached double digits, and in mid-2009 it set a record of 29%.
Double-digit currency growth will naturally have a significant impact on all industries including housing prices and prices.
Today, more than ten years later, the situation is different.
In January 2020, although M2 exceeded 200 trillion yuan, it hit a record high.
However, the growth rate of M2 has shrunk to 8.
4%, which is basically the same as the growth rate of nominal GDP.
At the same time, at that time, the central bank conducted multiple rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts.
In the second half of 2008 alone, in just a few months, the benchmark lending rate dropped from 7.
74% to 5.
94%, and the cumulative interest rate cut was 180 basis points, affecting the real economy and the property market.
This time, with the help of the LPR interest rate reform, the physical interest rate is separated from the property market interest rate, and asymmetric interest rate cuts and small-scale interest rate cuts have become the mainstream.
From last year to the present, the physical interest rate (1-year LPR) has dropped 4 times, a cumulative drop of 26 basis points, while the property market interest rate (5-year LPR) has only been lowered 2 times, a cumulative drop of 10 basis points.
It can be seen that neither the strength of monetary easing nor the strength of credit easing is comparable to that of the year. Second, 24 trillion yuan seems to be a lot, but most of it is the cumulative investment in the next few years, not the total scale of investment in a year.
The original 4 trillion yuan was an unplanned investment.
The "4 trillion" in 2008 was an unplanned investment, plus the local investment plan, which could total more than 10 trillion.
At that time, the GDP was only about 30 trillion, less than one-third of the current one.
Most of the infrastructure investment this time is within the investment plans of various regions, but it has been strengthened under the influence of the epidemic.
Some places have accelerated the pace of advancement.
Some investment projects are scheduled to start in 2020 and will affect tens of thousands of coating companies.
Form a positive.
According to media reports, the total investment plan of each province in 2017 is as high as 40 trillion yuan.
These investments are conventional investments and cannot be completed in one year.
More importantly, the growth rate of infrastructure investment at that time was close to 20%, far exceeding the growth rate of GDP.
The growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2019 has fallen to 3.
8%, which is significantly lower than the GDP growth rate.
Third, the original “four trillion” was mostly based on traditional infrastructure.
This time, the importance of new infrastructure and infrastructure for people's livelihood has never been more prominent.
The so-called traditional infrastructure refers to the traditional infrastructure represented by railways, highways, water conservancy and municipal pipe networks, which are investment constructions with steel and cement as the mainstay.
New infrastructure refers to investment in 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, smart cities and other fields, focusing on the future industrial layout and creating infrastructure for the city in the era of smart revolution.
Investment in the field of people’s livelihood refers to the construction of public areas such as elderly care, education, and medical care.
It corresponds to the shortcomings of public construction exposed by this accidental impact.
Medical resources in many cities are not as abundant as expected, and medical treatment is imminent.
.
This is the difference.
You must know that more than 10 years ago, the construction of high-speed railways had just started, and shortcomings such as expressways needed to be made up.
A large number of central and western provinces were relatively lack of infrastructure.
 Today, more than 10 years later, we see that even Guizhou, which is in the mountains, has all highways.
Guangxi, as the southern border, has a total mileage of high-speed railways that surpassed that of Guangdong.
Yunnan, a major tourist town but poor traffic, has 15 For this civil airport, the traffic shortcomings no longer exist.
In fact, most of the transportation infrastructure construction in the eastern coastal provinces has basically been completed, and small repairs and supplements have replaced large-scale demolition and large-scale construction.
After more than 10 years of advancement, the infrastructure space in the central and western regions is also shrinking.
In the future, traditional infrastructure will have an increasingly limited stimulus effect on the economy, and new infrastructure and infrastructure for people's livelihood must be put on the agenda.
Fourth, where does the money come from? It is still the key in the key.
 It must be understood that any investment requires money, and money does not come out of thin air, especially in infrastructure investment.
 This money comes either from finances, private investment, or debt.
Obviously, fiscal space is limited, and the current fiscal revenue growth rate has hit a new low.
Although the debts represented by urban investment bonds and special debts are mainstream, they also face a situation where urban debts remain high.
Once these debts continue to stack, it is easy to bring financial risks.
Today, my country's macro leverage ratio (overall debt/GDP) has exceeded 250%, while less than 150% more than 10 years ago, the room for leverage is getting smaller and smaller.
For any investment, the rate of return must be considered.
Different from the initial period of reform and opening up, at that time, the slogan "If you want to get rich, build roads" was once spread across the country.
Infrastructure investment is not only a necessity for people's livelihood construction, but also has a multiplier effect on the economy, and is a profitable investment project.
Now countless highways have made a lot of money.
Today, the rate of return on investment has dropped significantly.
After all, a large amount of infrastructure construction is nearing completion, and the shortcomings of infrastructure that are in short supply in society no longer exist.
The new round of infrastructure construction focuses on the central and western regions and third- and fourth-tier cities.
The return on investment is obviously lower than that of the eastern coast.
Therefore, this brings about two sides: on the one hand, we need to stimulate infrastructure to stabilize the economy and supplement construction shortcomings; on the other hand, we must beware of the debt behind the infrastructure and guard against financial risks.
 Therefore, these several high-level meetings have clearly stated that "to give full play to the key role of effective investment.
" Effective investment is the key to the key.