Industry . . . Domestic epoxy propane market ups and downs, peripheral factors are more important

recent, the domestic epoxy propane market can be said to be ups and downsAt the beginning of April, the price hit a new low of more than 4 years, while the shortest time to cross the 2000 yuan / ton price range;the external factors in early 2020 have a greater impact on the chemical market, and the volatility of epoxy propane is reasonableHowever, from the later macro situation, with the country to increase the attention to environmental protection, epoxy propane industry new and old capacity conversion has become inevitable, the entry of new technology and new devices will certainly be the impact on traditional enterprises, the market is high and windy, shocks are inevitableas a polyurethane upstream, in recent years the propane oxide market and its main downstream PPG market compared with the "black" MDI and TDI market is much lower-keyIn 2019, China's epoxy propane production capacity is about 3.3 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production capacity, and the output is about 2.8 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 86%The entry threshold for the epoxy propane industry is low, and there are nearly 20 domestic epoxy propane manufacturers, including 3 000 tons/year of production capacity, respectively, CNOOC Shell, Xinyue Chemical and Jishen ChemicalAs a major chemical province, Shandong region epoxy propane accounted for 46% of the national production capacity, but in addition to Yantai Wanhua, other all belong to the chlor-alcohol method deviceOctober 2019, China issued the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Directory (2019)", clearly put forward the restrictions on the new installation of the chlorol method, to encourage the construction of 150,000 tons / more of the direct oxidation method and 200,000 tons / more of the co-oxidation method deviceWith the introduction of the new policy, the epoxy propane industry has entered the transformation stage, the large capacity of green devices have been put into productionaccording to incomplete statistics, at least 6 million tons/year of epoxy propane projects in China are under construction or planned in 2020 and beyondFrom a technical point of view, these projects are mostly co-oxidation, part of the use of direct oxidation methodIn addition to Shandong, coastal areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Tianjin are also actively involved in the construction areasAmong them, there are seven planned to start production in 2020, with a total production capacity of about 1.27 million tons/year, with CNOOC Shell, Sinochem Quanzhou, Tianjin Bohai and Jinling Fuqiang as the main representativesinternational, thailand and Saudi Arabia are scheduled to put into operation a new plant for epoxy propane in 2020, 470,000 tons/year in Liander Basser, USA, will be put into operation in 2021, and India has two large-scale units of 300,000 tons/year planned for commercial operation in 2022from the export market, China only allows direct oxidation products exports, but because of the direct oxidation method production capacity and production is limited, the export can not make a breakthroughBefore the completion of the domestic device old and new replacement, it is expected that the import and export market will remain the status quo, only to meet the domestic market demand, China's epoxy propane products have the possibility to go abroad, with the production of large-capacity green units of epoxy propane, will gradually complete the replacement of backward devices, export markets are also expected to open, the supply pattern of epoxy propane will be changed dramatically in the next few years