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    Home > Coatings News > Paints and Coatings Market > Industry | Nine judgments on real estate policy trends in 2020

    Industry | Nine judgments on real estate policy trends in 2020

    • Last Update: 2021-04-30
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    It has been ten years since the implementation of the purchase restriction and loan restriction policy in 2010.
    Marked by the full intervention of "administrative restrictive measures + monetary policy + fiscal and taxation policies", China's real estate industry has faltered in the "most severe" control cycle in history.
    During the period, especially from 2015 to 2016, some cities carried out partial and small-scale policy relaxation due to economic and fiscal revenue pressures, but the rapid recovery and even "overheating" of transactions often led to rapid tightening and tightening of regulatory policies.
    In the context of the central government’s “housing to live without speculation”, the discretionary space for local “adopting policies based on the city” has been shrinking.
    The society’s previous expectations of “short-term economic data decline will lead to loosening of control” have gradually failed.
    Local city governments and real estate companies Together, they have experienced a mental journey from "tension and panic to feeling pressure, from excitement and anticipation to depression and depression, from numbness to adaptation to rejuvenation and transformation".
    In the process, "increased differentiation of the urban market", "increased industry concentration", "diversified operation", and "new product and business model innovation" have become the four themes of the market.
    In 2019, the internal and external situation of China’s real estate industry has undergone profound changes: on the one hand, China’s intensified foreign trade frictions have adversely affected macroeconomic operations, capital market development, employment and residents’ incomes, economic troika import and export, social fixed asset investment, Resident consumption is facing downward pressure.
    On the other hand, after the proposal of "not using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus" in the middle of the year, market policy expectations tended to be unified.
    From the perspective of “money roots”, the proportion of banks’ medium and long-term social loans has been declining, bank loans and trust financing policies in the real estate industry have rapidly tightened, investment growth in the real estate industry has slowed down, and small and medium-sized developers’ financing difficulties have emerged; "Looking at it, big cities are generally accelerating into a contractionary and connotative development stage after the delimitation of the "three lines" such as the urban development boundary.
    The Land Management Law has revised and reformed the land acquisition system, promoted the entry of rural collective construction land into the market, and promoted the construction of urban and rural integration A crucial step has been taken in the construction land market.
    At the beginning of the year, market expectations for “relaxation” of regulation and control were soaring.
    The Politburo meeting on April 19, 2019 emphasized the “one city, one policy” of “housing, housing, no speculation,” and the goal of “stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations”.
    Focusing on preventing and resolving risks in the real estate market, accelerating the construction of a long-term mechanism, and striving to maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market has become the general idea of ​​the central and local real estate market control policies.
    During the year, the frequency of control policies reached a historical peak.
    According to statistics from the Zhongfang Think Tank, since 2019, there have been about 595 real estate control policies issued across the country, an increase of 35% over 2018.
    The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee will make strategic arrangements for the institutional framework for China’s future development and construction.
    The real estate industry regulation system based on the principle of "housing in housing without speculation", "policies in accordance with the city" as the strategy, and "combination of long-term and short-term" as the tactics is accelerating form.
    Review and analyze the policy ideas and key points in 2019, and provide an expected reference for the regulation and control policy orientation in 2020.
    Tighten "Money Roots": Stabilize expectations, prevent risks, and reduce leverage.
    Strengthen real estate financing and credit management.
    Tighten "Money Roots": stabilize expectations, prevent risks, and reduce leverage.
    Strengthen real estate financing and credit management.
    This year, exchange rate fluctuations and economic growth caused by trade frictions Expected changes are transmitted to the domestic financial market.
    Uncertainties in the operation of China's economy and financial markets are increasing, cyclical and structural problems have become prominent, and risk assessments in key areas represented by real estate have increased.
    Throughout 2019, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Central Bank and other departments have intensively strengthened the prevention of real estate financial risks, and strengthened the management of real estate financing channels in banks, trusts, overseas bonds, and insurance.
    At the beginning of 2019, the central bank explicitly decided to adjust the monetary policy for the current year in its regular meetings and announcements.
    While proposing to "maintain the continuity and stability of the real estate financial policy, and maintain a reasonable and appropriate growth of personal housing loans", it especially emphasized that "the illegal use of consumer loans is strictly prohibited.
    For the purchase of houses, strengthen the management of funds flowing into real estate through bank financing, entrusted loans and other channels".
    At the same time, it proposes to strengthen the supervision and risk warning of the financing behavior of large-scale real estate enterprises with high leverage operations.
    In terms of bank loans, the central bank established a full-time department to strengthen the “macro-prudential management” of systemically important financial institutions and financial holding groups, and specifically required that the balance of real estate financing (on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet, project financing and mortgage loans) of financial institutions accounted for The ratio must not be higher than 29%, emphasizing that real estate development loans must be used strictly for projects with complete “four-three-two” conditions, lending strictly in accordance with the project progress, strictly supervising the flow of loans, and prohibiting real estate companies from using loan funds for auctions Land and project deposits and other purposes.
    The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Work of "Consolidating the Results of the Control of Chaos and Promoting Compliance Construction"" (Yinbaojianfa [2019] No.
    23) to increase inspections and penalties for violations of the policies of the real estate industry It emphasizes that it is not allowed to directly provide financing to real estate development projects with incomplete "four certificates", developers or their controlling shareholders who do not meet the standards, and insufficient capital, and strictly restrict the development of front-end financing models.
    In terms of trust financing, the banking and insurance regulatory authorities and the central bank continue to strengthen window guidance, requiring comprehensive and strict control of the scale of real estate trust business.
    In particular, some of the former radical trust institutions have broken through the "four-three-two" restriction, and helped real estate companies to finance and buy land through specific asset income rights, equity income rights, etc.
    , and conducted warning and supervision, and suspended this type of real estate trust business; Putting a lot of pressure on the financing of small and medium-sized development enterprises in the early stage.
    Over the years, the society has paid great attention and expectation, and the real estate trust investment funds (REITs) that have been coming out many times have been put on hold again.
    With regard to personal home purchase loans, the Central Bank clarified the adjustment of housing loan interest rates and kept the personal housing loan interest rates basically stable.
    The central bank issued an announcement deciding to reform and improve the lending market quote rate (LPR) formation mechanism to promote the reduction of financing costs in the real economy.
    The deputy governor of the central bank stated at the policy briefing that it is necessary to ensure the effective implementation of differentiated housing credit policies and maintain the basic stability of personal housing loan interest rates.
    The Central Bank made it clear that starting from October 8, 2019, the interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans will be formed based on the price quoted rate of the corresponding period of the loan in the most recent month.
    The interest rate of the first set of commercial personal housing loans shall not be lower than the quoted interest rate of the corresponding term loan market, and the interest rate of the second set of commercial personal housing loans shall not be lower than the quoted interest rate of the corresponding term loan market plus 60 basis points.
    Strengthen the “ground roots”: reform land acquisition and unify the market to promote the connotative development of key citiesStrengthen the “ground roots”: Reform land acquisition and unify the market to promote the connotative development of key cities.
    On August 26, 2019, the 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress voted and passed the decision on amending the Land Management Law, the new "Land Management Law" The Land Management Law will come into effect on January 1, 2020.
    This revision of the Land Management Law, including the reform of entering the market for collectively-owned construction land, will improve the existing supply pattern of construction land.
    In the context of the development of "constraint on total construction land" and even "reduction" in domestic big cities, rural construction land resources have become a valuable reserve space that must be revitalized for the intensive development of urban connotations.
    Breaking down the legal barriers to the entry of rural collective construction land into the market will help establish a unified urban and rural construction land market and a long-term real estate regulation mechanism.
    The new "Land Administration Law" deletes the stipulation in Article 43 of the original "Land Administration Law" that "any unit or individual needs to use land must use state-owned land", and clarifies the conditions for entering the market for collectively-run construction land: In line with the plan, it must be for industrial or commercial use; second, it must be registered in accordance with the law; third, arrangements must be made in the annual land use plan; fourth, even if the collective operating construction land is obtained After the right to use the land, the owner of the land shall also use the land for the originally planned purpose.
    The reform has taken solid steps to establish a unified urban and rural construction land market, which is conducive to improving the comprehensive utilization of urban and rural land resources, increasing farmers' property income, and also promoting the upgrading of rural industries and the entry of new business formats, and promoting rural revitalization.
    At the same time, this breakthrough is also of great significance for establishing a long-term real estate regulation mechanism, breaking through the bottleneck of land resources, and reducing the cost of comprehensive land use in society.
    Stabilize the market: "Three Stability" takes the lead, one city, one policy differentiates the implementation of purchase restrictions and loans Stabilize the market: "Three stability" takes the lead, one city, one policy differentiates the implementation of purchase restrictions and loan restrictionsIn terms of market transactions, administrative measures such as purchase restrictions and loan restrictions are still the main means to curb short-term land prices and excessive housing prices.
    In accordance with the keynote of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations", many cities have fine-tuned their purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and business restrictions.
    After the "April 19" meeting, policies in various regions were generally tightened.
    Cities with high market enthusiasm, such as Xi'an and Suzhou, respectively upgraded their purchase and sales restrictions; the rising level of loan interest rates for second homes in cities such as Shenzhen also stopped falling and rebounded, and the provident fund policy closed.
    Cities such as Hefei, Suzhou, and Dongguan have timely introduced the “Limit-Competitive” and other land auction policies to cool the land market; Henan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Anhui and other provinces, as well as Chengdu, Changsha, Wuhan and other cities have successively introduced the implementation of the “One City, One Policy” "Plans and documents.
    After the "July 30" Politburo meeting, local governments implemented and implemented refined policies based on the characteristics of the city and the real estate market, deepened the "one city, one policy" regulation, and ensured the smooth operation of the market.
    Credit and land policies in many places were tightened and strengthened.
    Purchase restrictions and other transaction management measures.
    However, some cities have introduced measures such as relaxing settlement policies and talent housing, and the purchase restriction policies have been loosened in a roundabout way.
    It is worth noting that cities with moderate intentions to loosen regulation are distributed in the east, middle and west, reflecting the pressure and urgency of local governments under the current economic situation.
    Promote guarantee: continue to deepen system reform Promote guarantee: continue to deepen system reformThe core of this year’s housing security policy is to unswervingly develop shared property housing and accelerate the establishment of a multi-level housing security system.
    In August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a document proposing the development of shared property housing in accordance with local conditions and speeding up the solution to the housing difficulties of urban low-income residents and eligible new citizens.
    Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places are actively exploring the construction mode of shared property housing, increasing the supply of shared property housing, and optimizing and adjusting the purchase policy of shared property housing.
    During the same period, various localities accelerated the development of the housing rental market and regulated the order of the housing rental market.
    Ten departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Optimizing Supply to Promote the Stable Growth of Consumption and Promote the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market (2019)" to support large, medium and small cities with net population inflows, high housing prices and high rental demand to raise public rental housing and the market through multiple channels For leased housing listings, the construction of leased housing on collective land is the key support content.
    The "July 30" Politburo meeting specifically emphasized the transformation of old communities in cities and towns; in August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a document saying that the transformation of shantytowns should be "do our best and do what we can", scientifically determine the annual tasks, and strictly grasp the scope and standards of the shed reform.
    Focus on the transformation of the dirty and chaotic shanty towns, state-owned industrial and mining areas, forest areas, and shanty towns in reclamation areas in the old city.
    Real estate companies, various real estate funds and other capital institutions have accelerated their involvement in urban renewal.
    Huangsha rushed to see gold: 2020 real estate policy outlook.
    Huangsha scoured for real estate policy.
    2020 real estate policy outlook.
    At the end of 2019, the easing of foreign trade frictions and the rebound of the RMB exchange rate have won more policy space for domestic macro-control.
    On December 12, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.
    Based on the pilot "one city, one policy" real estate regulation in 22 cities in the middle of the year, "fully implement city-specific policies.
    " On December 23, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference emphasized that efforts should be made to stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations in 2020.
    On December 24, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Creating a Better Development Environment to Support the Reform and Development of Private Enterprises" was officially released, which boosted market confidence.
    In the past New Year's Day, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.
    5 percentage points.
    The Zhongfang Think Tank believes that the real estate market regulation in 2020 will continue to adhere to the "stability while progressing" idea: on the one hand, focus on preventing economic and financial risks, rectifying various illegal financial behaviors, continue to dismantle shadow banks, continue to reduce the leverage ratio of residents, and stimulate consumption ; Through the reform of the land acquisition system and credit control, prevent local fiscal risks and government credit risks.
    On the other hand, speed up the study and establishment of a long-term control mechanism.
    In addition to the unified registration of real estate, the unified urban and rural construction land market, and the development of the real estate leasing market, the exploration and deliberation of the real estate tax system (including the land value-added tax for personal house sales) will play more roles.
    The role of regulatory tools is expected, but it will not be launched in the short term.
    Based on macroeconomic operation trends and recent policy guidance, the China Real Estate think tank makes nine judgments on policy trends in 2020: First, in terms of monetary policy, as banks and various financial institutions generally lower the growth vision of the real estate industry, real estate development financing channels may be controlled.
    Further tightening; but in the context of loose monetary policy, the overall capital supply of the industry should be the same as in 2019.
    Second, due to the tight capital chain and the impact of restrictions on sales and price restrictions, small and medium-sized real estate companies may have more integrated mergers and acquisitions caused by operating difficulties, and industry concentration tends to increase; combined with the background of "mixed reform", real estate company equity acquisitions may be launched during the year.
    Standardize policies to protect the rights and interests of relevant entities and prevent and control risks.
    Third, the continued implementation of loose fiscal policies in the context of “tax cuts and fee reductions” will inevitably increase local fiscal pressure.
    While actively opening up new tax sources and increasing tax collection and management efforts, cities with large fiscal deficits (especially the third, Tier 4 cities and below) will increase land supply; at the same time, in light of the residential housing demand cycle and the full implementation of the “city-specific policy” background, the regulatory policies of individual cities may be loosened to assist the “land sales”, and the first to be loosened may be Sales restriction and price restriction policies; development companies need to be alert to urban fundamental risks.
    Fourth, “reform land plan management” is put on the agenda.
    In the early stage, large cities generally reduced and contracted development, and the land supply tension may be eased; coupled with the rare period of relaxation of the macroeconomic environment, the supply of land in key cities and key regions may be intensified.
    Increased, development enterprises can focus on the layout of high-quality land resources.
    Fifth, the intensity of regulation in first-tier and hot second-tier cities is expected to remain unchanged, market transactions should pick up more obviously, housing prices have stopped falling and stabilized, but the possibility of rapid price increases is unlikely; credit policies will be used as the above-mentioned cities to respond to prices that may rise too quickly There is a possibility of further tightening of the defensive measures.
    Sixth, in conjunction with the seventh population census, unified real estate registration may be accelerated, realizing nationwide online query, and providing a basis for the establishment of "big real estate data" and the implementation of precise control in the future.
    Seventh, under the background that the city has stepped into connotative spatial development and the financial pressure has increased significantly, social capital-led urban renewal will become the main mode.
    Real estate companies, urban renewal funds, trusts and other capital institutions may participate in urban renewal during the year.
    Introducing standardized policies, relevant companies should carefully grasp policy trends and adjust the pace of project implementation.
    Eighth, large-scale housing leasing companies and the housing leasing market have entered a bottleneck period after rapid development and expansion in recent years, even inducing risks.
    In 2020, the policy may shift to standardizing project financing and operation management.
    Ninth, under the current economic situation and policy guidance, combine the overall supply and demand contradiction of various types of housing in the city, as well as the development of small and micro enterprises and the private economy, and consider the construction of a multi-subject supply and multi-channel guarantee housing supply system.
    According to actual demand, restrictions on the target and scale of commercial housing reform and commercial service property sales should be relaxed to adapt to the new situation.
    The yellow sand is exhausted before seeing gold.
    With the increasingly complex economic and social situation and policy environment, only development companies that master keen market reading, deep industry insight, decisive strategic decision-making, firm and efficient execution, and full chain resource integration and innovation capabilities can survive.
    And to achieve a new stage of leapfrog development!
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