Insufficient follow-up of PVC demand limits the momentum of price rebound

In terms of news: Shandong Xinfa PVC Phase II 400,000 tons/year installation (February 20 evening) installation temporarily stopped, the recovery time is not clear
.
The first phase of the 200,000 tons/year plant in the plant is currently in normal production, and the specific trend still needs to be followed
.

Price: Japan naphtha CF Japan reported 440.
12 yuan / ton, down 6; Naphtha FOB Singapore was trading at $47.
88 a barrel, down 0.
83
.
ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1210 US dollars / ton, flat; CFR Southeast Asia was flat at $1,075/mt
.

Spot market: The price of some domestic PVC spot market has risen.

North China calcium carbide law reported 5750 yuan / ton, up 20; ethylene law reported 6490 yuan / ton, up 110; East China calcium carbide law reported 5800 yuan / ton, flat; Ethylene law reported 6350 yuan / ton, down 250
.
South China calcium carbide method reported 5750, down 10, ethylene method 6250 tons, flat
.
Raw material prices were basically flat, East China reported 2950 yuan, flat, Northwest reported 2650 yuan, flat
.

Summary of views: Short-term social inventories remain high, downstream environmental protection supervision is strict, downstream operating rates have fallen, demand follow-up is insufficient, limiting the momentum of price rebound, coupled with tight market capital, the futures market has fallen
sharply.
Technically, the PVC1709 contract opens low and goes low, testing the pressure around 5700 above, testing the support around 5500 below, and the futures price is expected to remain in the range of 5500-5700, and it is recommended to sell short in the range
.