Insulin-collected bare feet! Is the 12 billion-dollar federal pharmaceutical giant undervalued?

Guide: Policy documents continue to be released, insulin collection is getting closer and closer! Recent updates to the national organization's announcement on centralized drug procurement, a wider range of drug band purchases are in the process of being prepared, including biologic stakes that are of great concern to us.
With the results of the third batch of national band procurement due out on August 18, the national insulin band procurement is likely to be included in the fourth batch in December this year.
in fact, insulin collection has long appeared, in January this year Wuhan launched the insulin band procurement bargain, 7 groups of insulin total agreed procurement volume of 1.7 million, involving Ganli Pharmaceuticals, Novo Nordisk, Lilly, Sanofi, Tonghua Dongbao, Federal Pharmaceuticals and other 9 enterprises, but the price reduction is not large, mainly due to the overall amount of Wuhan.
Which domestic manufacturer will be the biggest winner since the insulin collection board is nailed? We are concerned about the Federal Pharmaceuticals in hong Kong Stock Exchange, which also has the second and third generation of insulin approval of the old manufacturers, at this time the market value of only 12 billion yuan, is Tonghua Dongbao 1/2.5, is Ganli Pharmaceuticals 1/7.
we have had a similar experience in the previous bracket collection: "Low market share" bare-footers tend to have a more favorable price advantage in the collection, so does the federal pharmaceutical industry have an ambush value, or is there an opportunity to underestimate it? Let's start with the big disease of diabetes... The mouth-watering disease track: "cured diabetes, hanging insulin" (1) life trend to the global high incidence of diabetes with social progress and domestic per capita income, to solve the problem of food and clothing is no longer the pursuit of every family, more mountain seafood, food and wine are moved to the table.
while people enjoy a feast, but ignored food, alcohol and water rich in blood sugar and blood lipids, but also caused the commonly known as "rich disease" diabetes spread around the world.
About 124 million people with diabetes worldwide in 1997 and 463 million in 2019 are expected to grow at a rate of 51 percent, reaching 574 million by 2030, according to the International Diabetes Alliance (IDF), and 700 million people worldwide are expected to have diabetes in 2045.
(2) China's diabetes patients in the world's first, the future of rapid growth of patients, related drug market is huge and compared with the world, China's largest number of owners of diabetes, accounting for about a quarter of the world's number of diabeticpatients.
According to Everbright Securities, according to the total prevalence rate of 10.9% and 1.395 billion people (the total population of the National Bureau of Statistics at the end of 2018), the total number of people with diabetes in China reached 152 million, and speculated that China's diabetes diagnosis and treatment market still has about 2.1 times the growth space.
, according to Sullivan's forecast, China's diabetes drug market will grow at a caco-annual growth rate of 15.6% in 2018-2023, and the market size will reach 118.58 billion yuan and 259.2 billion yuan by 2030, maintaining very strong growth.
(3) diabetes diagnosis rate and treatment penetration rate is low, the future market potential is unimaginable, but it is very frightening that although the number of diabetics in the country is over 100 million, but the diagnosis rate is very low.
according to the National Health and Planning Commission data, in 2013 the domestic diagnosis rate of diabetes is only 3.51%, that is, the number of confirmed about 47.39 million people, indicating that there are still a large number of diabetics in the early stages, undiagnosed.
the proportion of people who knew they were sick was 36.5%, the treatment rate was 32.2%, and the treatment control rate was only 49.2%.
can say that many patients in China have not paid attention to their diabetes and have not even been diagnosed, and the vast majority of diabetes patients have not been effectively treated, which means that the market still has huge market potential has not been tapped.
with the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of the health awareness of urban and rural residents, the diagnosis rate and treatment rate will further climb.
(4) Treatment of diabetes: insulin is still a rigid demand, occupy an important position in diabetes medication.
can be said that without effective treatment and control, diabetes will become one of the most terrible diseases that take away the normal life of mankind.
as we all know, the key to the treatment and control of diabetes is to control the body's blood sugar concentration, the most effective way is to use oral anti-sugar drugs and insulin injectiontwo two aspects.
the most popular oral sugar-lowering drugs on the market today are sulfonyl luxa, non-sulfonainsulin-induced secretions, biphenyls, and so on.
main role is to stimulate islet cells to secrete insulin or increase the sensitivity of surrounding tissues to make full use of limited insulin, so as to achieve the effect of controlling blood sugar.
however, the side effects of such drugs are greater on the body, because diabetic patients already have a fragile pancreas, increasing the load of the pancreas work will eventually lead to oral medication failure.
, therefore, oral sugar-reducing drugs are not a long-term solution to control or treat diabetes.
insulin injections have little adverse effects, and their quick and better results make them an indispensable drug for the treatment and control of diabetes.
data also show that about half of the current domestic patients still choose insulin treatment and control means.
(5) the penetration rate of the domestic insulin market is very low, excellent investment track even if the domestic long-acting insulin 2019 total sales of 7.16 billion yuan, corresponding to only 238.96 million people using the population, penetration rate is only 1.99%; The corresponding population of quick-acting insulin was only 1.98 million people, with a penetration rate of 1.65%, while the total market value of second-generation insulin was 6.792 billion yuan, and the corresponding population was only 3.1422 million, with a penetration rate of only 2.6%.
taking into account factors such as incomplete use of diabetes patients and coordinated use of insulin.
estimates that the domestic insulin penetration rate is only about 5%.
the current domestic insulin market is far from saturated, in the future is expected to be more patients will start using insulin products, but also more confirmed patients understand their condition and long-term use of insulin products.
the development trend of insulin investment: three generations of long-term mainstream, second generation auxiliary (1) insulin development history and their respective advantages and disadvantages from the research and development process, insulin can now be mainly divided into three generations: animal-derived insulin (generation): from animal pancreas (pigs, cattle, etc.) extracted as early as 1923 Commercialized production, which was the main product of the early insulin market, and recombinant human insulin (second generation): Human insulin synthesized using genetic engineering techniques, which were expressed in tools such as E. coli or yeast powder, achieved commercialized production in 1982 and had high safety and efficacy, and quickly became a front-line drug for diabetes.
and it still plays an important role in the current domestic insulin product market, the recombinant insulin analogue (three generations): using genetic engineering technology to modify the molecular level of human insulin structure, so that recombinant insulin analogy can better simulate the body's insulin secretion patterns.
is expected to become a major component of insulin products in the future, but at present in China still can not shake the important position of second-generation insulin.
(2) the domestic insulin market will gradually present "three generations,second generation as a supplement" large pattern according to the data of The Hang Seng, the current domestic insulin products market, in 2019 there are still 55% of patients using second-generation insulin (because its relatively cheap), but the effect is always worse than three Generations, the next two generations of growth will gradually slow down, although the use of three generations of insulin in 2019, although only 45%, due to its fast-acting, long-term characteristics, will be widely used in the future, it is expected that after five years the use of patients to reach 57.5%, with broad market growth space.
in the third generation of insulin, is undoubtedly the most effective and duration of insulin glargine and degu.
of which Novo nordder Valley insulin was approved by NMPA in 2017, Haizheng Pharmaceuticals, Four Rings Pharmaceuticals, Zhengda Tianqing, Zhuhai Federation has declared clinical.
Although the compound patent expires in 2024, but the preparation patent, especially the control of zinc ion content, imitation manufacturers may not be able to avoid, domestic manufacturers generic drugs listed at least after 2026.
predictable, the next five years, the three-generation insulin market will still be dominated by insulin glargine.
however, as mentioned earlier, in the short term, the second generation of products will still occupy a large part of the domestic insulin market, the future domestic market insulin products will present "three generations gradually become mainstream, second generation as a supplement" the general trend pattern.
the domestic insulin market competition pattern TOP3 manufacturers advantage is more obvious, the collection of wind or pattern change (1) import manufacturers no longer occupy an absolute advantage, domestic manufacturers rise data show that in recent years occupied the majority of the domestic insulin market is the main import brand Novo Nordisk, founded in 1923 Novo Nordisk, is a world-renowned insulin brand, which has been monopolizing most of the market share since entering the Chinese market at the beginning of this century.
, Novo Nordisk's dominance in China's insulin market has declined as many domestic manufacturers such as Tonghua Dongbao, Ganli Pharmaceuticals and Federal Pharmaceuticals have broken through the technical barriers to insulin.
sales of Novo Nordisk were RMB3,022 million and RMB3,096 million, respectively, from 2013 to 2017, an increase of only 2.45 percent.
, Tonghua Dongbao and Federal Pharmaceuticals, whose sales more than doubled from 860 million yuan in 2013 to 1,888 million yuan in 2017, and Federal Pharmaceuticals, which sold 0.47 billion yuan and 503 million yuan in 2017, saw the huge potential of the veteran pharmaceutical plant in insulin products.
(2) Federal Pharmaceuticals, Tonghua Dongbao, Ganli Pharmaceuticals into the strength of the three major manufacturers compared with the current domestic insulin major players and has achieved commercial production of insulin enterprises have Dongbao, Ganli and the Federal, respectively, and Dongbao and Ganli after more than a decade of hard work, respectively, in the second and third generation of insulin field to establish a pivotal market position, recombined human insulin and insulin glargine market share reached nearly 30% and 40%, respectively.
of the three players, although the Commonwealth entered the field a little later, but its more comprehensive, differentiated competitive advantage is more obvious, the product and production level swells the federal companies to give the two major factors of great potential.
product level: the federal insulin system products complete, the company is the only domestic second-generation, third-generation insulin products, and recombinant human insulin and insulin gloriatin are domestic second-class.
production level: The federal company's insulin production capacity is an industry leader, and the company has now built three insulin-based API lines that recombine human insulin, insulin glargine and mendon's insulin, as well as three insulin-based formulation lines.
can achieve the annual insulin-type raw materials about 3 tons, preparations about 300 million units, the actual production capacity can meet more than 10 billion yuan sales.
insulin-barefootfederal, $10 billion is cheap? (1) The former antibiotic leader, the new star of insulin as an established pharmaceutical company, its previous focus on the production and sale of hangers preparations and the raw materials and intermediates of the product, is one of the major manufacturers of antibiotics in China.
Federal Pharmaceuticals listed second- and third-generation insulin stakes in 2011 and 2017, becoming the first company in China to produce and sell both second- and third-generation insulin products, and is enough to demonstrate the company's research and development capabilities.
in terms of second-generation insulin, Federal Pharmaceuticals will receive revenue of 575 million and 686 million yuan respectively in 2018-2019, an increase of about 19.3 percent year-on-year, and expect slower growth of second-generation recombinant human insulin to increase by about 15 percent per year, up from 2022 Revenue of about 1.059 billion yuan; in contrast, three generations of insulin glargine, although the 2018-2019 federal pharmaceutical revenue of 0.84 million yuan, 223 million yuan, but its two-year growth rate of 283.56 percent and 165.48 percent.
, federal pharmaceuticals is expected to generate about $1.96 billion in revenue in 2022 as three generations of insulin become mainstream.
(2) research and development pipeline is not bad, Mendong insulin pioneered the breakthrough in 2019, federal pharmaceutical investment of 368 million yuan in research and development, an increase of 29.9% compared to the same period, and is developing up to 29 new products.
and in the development of diabetes drugs, Mendong insulin 30 injections have been declared production;
at this stage of the domestic winter insulin only Novo Nordisk listed for sale, domestic brands in the research and development of drugs only the Federal Pharmaceutical men-winter insulin and mendong insulin 30R completed clinical, in the declaration registration stage, is expected to be at the end of this year or early next year to obtain listing approval.
federal pharmaceutical sybis compared its two main competitors, Tonghua Dongbao's Mendong insulin is in phase III clinical, while Glyndong insulin 30R premix is also in the third stage of clinical phase.
Federal Pharmaceuticals is expected to be the first to get a home-made winter insulin and a winter insulin 30R layout in the future.
and 2019, mendong insulin accounted for about 13.26 percent of the market share of third-generation insulin, while mendon insulin 30R was about 20.71 percent, both of which are higher in the third-generation insulin market.
if the federal drug company can successfully market both insulins in the future, sales of both winter insulins are expected to peak at more than 1 billion yuan.
(3) Ganjing market share is still small, collection is expected to bring rapid release of federal pharmaceutical adhere to the industrial chain extension strategy, with a sound integrated production line of api preparations, such as the use of antibiotic products from intermediates, API to the vertical production line of preparation products, this highly integrated production line can obviously provide a good foundation for the company's generic competition.
from the current dynamic analysis of pharmaceutical industry policy, band procurement will be extended to biological drugs, the company's current market share of insulin is less, especially the share of insulin glargine is only 1%, the company once shortlisted, is expected to quickly release.
(4) the Hong Kong Stock Exchange of the Federal Pharmaceutical significantly underestimated, can it be borrowed to explode? from the business composition of the federal pharmaceutical industry.