International coal market prices have returned to their pre-epidemic levels

The global coal market in 2020: production and demand decline, trade shrinks, prices first drop and then rise

"Refinitiv (Refinitiv, a global financial market data and infrastructure provider) provides shipping data showing that in 2020, the global seaborne coal trade volume will drop by 12.
7% year-on-year, which can also support the shrinking of global coal trade.
" Liang Dunshi said .

Coal prices: fell sharply in the first half of the year, and rebounded rapidly in the fourth quarter

"Due to the impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, international coal prices fell sharply in the first half of 2020, and rebounded rapidly in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, and the current prices have returned to their pre-epidemic levels.
" Liang Dunshi said.

According to reports, among the world’s three major thermal coal price indices, the price of ARA thermal coal in three European ports fell to US$37.
8 per ton at the end of May 2020, breaking the trough of US$43.
08 per ton that appeared in the previous cycle in 2015; South Africa The price of thermal coal at Richards Bay Port fell to US$44.
58 per ton in May 2020, which also fell below the trough of US$48.
16 per ton that appeared in the previous cycle in 2015; the price of thermal coal at the Port of Newcastle in Australia fell in September 2020.
The month is close to the bottom of the previous cycle.

　　The Indonesian thermal coal export benchmark price (HBA), which has the significance of the international market's export thermal coal price vane, fell to 49.
42 US dollars per ton in September 2020, setting the lowest price level since the index was created in 2011.

　　However, after October, driven by the strong demand for China's coal imports, the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal exports rose sharply.
By February 2021, it had risen to US$87.
79 per ton, far exceeding the price before the epidemic.

　　The above-mentioned three major global thermal coal price indexes also rebounded rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2020, and have now returned to their pre-epidemic levels.

　　Year-round characteristics: the trend of "westerly wind moving eastward" is more obvious

　　Looking back at the global coal market in 2020, Leung Duns believes that the shift of global coal exports and consumption to Asia has become more obvious.

　　This can be seen from the “westerly eastward” trend of coal exports from Russia and South Africa.

　　According to reports, for a long time in the past, Russia’s coal exports were “heavier in the West and light in the East”, and Western Europe was its main export market.
However, as the pace of "de-coalization" in Western European countries has accelerated, the amount of coal exported by Russia to Western Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the export focus has shifted from west to east.

　　Of the 193 million tons of coal exported by the country last year, 107 million tons were exported through its eastern ports.
Russia exported 14.
6 million tons of coal to China in the second half of last year, an increase of 33.
9% from 10.
9 million tons in the same period in 2019.
The Russian government has also stated that it will speed up the construction of logistics facilities such as railways and ports, increase the pace of coal exports to the east, and actively expand the coal market in the Asia-Pacific region.

　　South Africa's coal exports show the same trend.
Before 2000, South Africa's coal exports to European and American countries accounted for more than 80% of total exports, while exports to South Asia and East Asia accounted for less than 10%.
However, after entering the 21st century, the "westerly wind" of South African coal exports blows earlier and more violently than Russia.
In 2009, South Africa's coal exports to the European market fell to 47%, and the amount of coal exported to East Asia and South Asia rose to 22%.

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