International oil prices break through 70 US dollars, triggering a "bull market" reverie

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries held a ministerial meeting on June 1.
International oil prices rose significantly on that day, among which the main contract price of Brent crude oil futures stood at a barrel for the first time since the end of May 2019 Above the $70 mark
.

Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have continued to rise, and are currently more than 30% higher than the beginning of the year
.

So, what is the trend of international oil prices in the market outlook?

Multiple factors push up oil prices

On June 1, the 17th ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries was held in video mode, reiterating that it will continue to increase oil production according to the original plan
.

The OPEC official website issued a statement after the meeting, saying that the meeting reconfirmed the decision made by the 15th Ministerial Meeting on the July output adjustment

On that day, international oil prices rose considerably
.

The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.
40 US dollars, or 2.
11%, to close at 67.
72 US dollars per barrel, the highest level since June 2018; London Brent crude oil futures for August delivery The price rose by US$1.
53, or 2.

“The increase in oil prices largely reflects the international market’s optimism about the recovery of the world economy and the increase in oil demand in the future
.

” Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from the International Business Daily.
The continued economic recovery of the global economy, the continued loose monetary policies of many countries such as the United States, and the cautious increase in production by OPEC and partner countries have combined to boost oil prices

　　Some analysts also believe that, from the perspective of supply and demand, the growth of global oil demand in 2021 will mainly require OPEC countries to increase oil supply to make up for the gap
.

The production policy of OPEC countries depends on market conditions.
Increasing supply is slow, and the supply of international crude oil markets has tightened, which has promoted the rise of oil prices

　　According to OPEC's latest forecast, the global average daily oil demand this year will increase by 6 million barrels over last year, and oil inventories may drop sharply in the second half of the year
.

According to the decision of the previous meeting, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will gradually increase the scale of production to 2 million barrels per day based on market conditions

　　The trend of the market outlook needs continuous attention

　　International oil prices are expected to rise significantly, and oil price bulls are encouraged.

What about the market outlook?

　　Bai Ming said that in a short period of time, oil prices may continue to rise inertially
.

The global epidemic control situation, the loose monetary policy of the United States and the economic stimulus plan are still important factors affecting oil prices

　　There are also industry insiders who predict that in the next one or two weeks, oil prices that have risen too quickly will be technically corrected
.

With the accelerated advancement of new crown vaccination and the continued improvement of economic recovery prospects, global oil demand is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year; the expected return of Iranian crude oil has also caused the market to attach great importance to it, which is a key uncertain factor affecting supply

　　However, institutional investors mostly believe that the return of Iranian crude oil to the market will have limited impact on international oil price trends this year
.
With the significant increase in oil demand in the next few months, Iran’s additional crude oil supply may be absorbed by the market
.
According to reports, Goldman Sachs recently stated that even if Iranian crude oil exports may increase, the reasons for rising oil prices are still valid despite the inelastic international crude oil supply and the surge in demand driven by the new crown vaccination
.
Assuming that Iran starts to increase its crude oil exports in July this year, Brent oil prices are still expected to reach US$80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year
.

　　Transfer from: International Business Daily