Inventories are still at a low level, and Shanghai aluminum maintains a volatile pattern

Shanghai aluminum fell
slightly overnight.
At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots was basically flat from last Thursday, and the warehouse receipts in the previous period were around
100,000 tons.
Customs data showed that electrolytic aluminum imports in September were 170,000 tons, down 30% month-on-month, and the increase in domestic production partially offset the reduction in imports, and the consumption performance was still strong
.
The low inventory state is expected to continue, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots will continue to support
Shanghai aluminum at about 150 yuan.
It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum back structure will remain for a long time, and the aluminum price will maintain a volatile pattern, with high selling and low absorption operation
.

On a macro level, negotiations between U.
S.
House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on Monday were again fruitless, and although Pelosi is still "optimistic", there is little hope of passing a stimulus bill before the election
.

In terms of supply, aluminum companies are still steadily advancing the resumption of production plan, the current profit of aluminum enterprises is relatively considerable, the fourth quarter of production capacity release is more, and the release speed is faster
.

In terms of demand, the downstream is normally replenished after the holiday, and the market consumption has not increased significantly, and some regions have introduced measures for peak production in autumn and winter in the heating season, which may affect the production of downstream processing enterprises, and then affect market demand
.

Overall, short-term demand is maintained, and inventories are still low, but as downstream demand directly shifts to the traditional off-season, aluminum ingots will return to the accumulation cycle
.
The change in the rhythm of supply and demand has made aluminum prices gradually enter a downward cycle
over time.
Maintain the medium-term bearish thinking
.