Investment growth rate declined, Shanghai rubber rebound height is limited

Spot price: Shanghai market 13 years Hainan whole milk quotation of 10,000 yuan / ton; The quotation of Yunxiang state-owned whole milk in 14 years is 10100 yuan / ton; 15-year Baodao whole milk quotation of 10400 yuan / ton; Qingdao RMB compound glue, mixed glue 9700-9800 yuan / ton (-100), 15 years 3# tobacco flakes 11800 yuan / ton (+0).

In the bonded zone, the spot price of tobacco tablets is 1530 US dollars / ton (-0), and the spot price of Taima standard 20# is 1230-1250 US dollars / ton (-0).

External, RSS3# reported 1560 US dollars / ton (-25), STR20# reported 1280-1300 US dollars / ton (-50); The purchase price of sea glue raw material glue is 10-10.
2 yuan / kg, and the purchase price of Yunnan state-owned first-class glue is 9.
5-9.
8 yuan / kg
.
The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand fell sharply, with raw film 52.
63, down 0.
90; smoke film 52.
01, down 1.
88; glue 46.
00, down 3.
50; cup rubber 37.
00, down 2.
00
.
(THB/kg).

By the end of May 2016, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased slightly by 1% from the middle of the month to 232,600 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons, ending a three-month continuous decline
.
Natural rubber decreased by only 1,600 tons to 186,200 tons, composite rubber increased slightly by 100 tons to 5,400 tons, and synthetic rubber (mainly due to the increase in mixed rubber) increased by 2,900 tons to 41,000 tons
.
In the week ended June 3, the weekly increase in natural rubber stocks in the previous period was 0.
08 million tons to 321,000 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt increased by 03,600 tons to 302,400 tons
.
In addition, according to the data released by the previous institute at the beginning of this month, there were 660 tons of warehouse receipts due in June and 300 tons
of warehouse receipts due in one month.

According to the latest ANRPC report, from January to April this year, the production and sales of tianjiao in the main producing countries, and the import and export volume increased year-on-year
.
Among them, the production increase was slightly lower, at 1.
9%.

Exports grew by 3.
5 per cent, consumption by 5.
5 per cent, and imports by 12.
2 per cent
.
In terms of production, China fell by 35% year-on-year in the first four months of 2016 due to the delay in rubber tapping, the highest
decline among major producing countries.
In addition, Malaysia's 11.
3% decline was also more prominent
.
During the same period, Thailand and Vietnam achieved growth
of about 8%.
In addition to Malaysia's year-on-year decline, exports increased in the other three major producing countries, with Vietnam recording the highest
increase of 14.
6%.
In addition, this report has revised down this year's production, export and consumption data
.

In the week of June 3, the all-steel tire of tire enterprises in Shandong started 69.
54%, a slight decrease
from last week.
Domestic semi-steel tire enterprises started 72.
9%, down
slightly from last week.
The tire market remained stable overall, with a slight decline
.

Investment growth has fallen sharply, and infrastructure investment is difficult to support
alone.
Fixed asset investment in May grew by 7.
5% year-on-year in the month, continuing to decline
from April.
The growth rate of three major types of investment has fallen across the board, among which, overcapacity and insufficient effective demand have caused the growth rate of manufacturing investment to hit a record low, the growth rate of real estate investment has continued to fall at a high level, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has stabilized at 20%, but it is difficult to support
it alone.
In May, the year-on-year growth rate of private fixed asset investment reached a record low of 1.
0%, indicating that the endogenous momentum of the economy is insufficient, mainly due to the decline in investment enthusiasm due to the deterioration of corporate profits, and the opening up of some industries is still insufficient
.
Looking ahead, manufacturing investment will still be subject to capacity reduction, and the disappearance of the demographic dividend will lead to a long-term decline in real estate investment, and steady growth stimulus may make infrastructure investment rise in the short term but its sustainability is doubtful
.

Overall, the steady growth has declined, the investment growth rate has fallen sharply, infrastructure investment is difficult to support alone, and the rebound height of Shanghai rubber is limited.