Iron ore prices have soared, coal prices have continued to fall

The extreme cold weather in the United States caused extreme imbalances in supply and demand, and Texas electricity prices soared wildly.

Coal supply shifted from tight to loose

From the perspective of supply, my country's coal supply capacity has increased steadily.

In terms of demand, Wang Xiaonan said that due to the holiday, the electricity load dropped rapidly.

"At present, demand has not yet fully started, coupled with the current high inventory of power plants, and the accumulation of inventory at the port is too fast, resulting in continuous decline in coal prices.

It is reported that the overall domestic electricity consumption has shown steady and healthy growth compared with last year's Spring Festival.

"After the Spring Festival, the accumulated inventory and seasonally sluggish daily consumption have promoted the characteristics of passive replenishment and high active destocking in downstream.

In Wang Xiaonan's view, it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic about the current weak coal prices.

Iron ore prices hit a new high since September 2011

　　Iron ore prices soared on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, reaching the highest level since September 2011.

　　"Iron ore spot prices are at historical highs, mines are profitable, and mainstream iron ore suppliers such as Australia and Brazil are very enthusiastic about production.
" According to Zhao Yongjun, iron ore from China Securities Futures, the data show that in the fourth quarter of 2020, Vale, Vale, The output of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton's three large iron ore producers increased by 3.
3%-7.
8% year-on-year.
In addition, non-mainstream mines have also resumed production in large numbers under the stimulus of high profits, especially equity mines in Africa.
For example, Sierra Leone’s new Tangkelili iron ore project has resumed production at the end of January and completed its first shipment.

　　"In the short term, the current round of iron ore rise is driven by the end of the Australian-Pakistan shipping impulse, the disturbance of two hurricanes in Australia, the marginal decline of iron ore arrivals and the replenishment before the end of the Spring Festival, which has made the iron ore port inventory depleted.
The second is that the steel-saving mills are expected to repair their own profits or are under normal seasonal maintenance.
Therefore, the national steel mills' hot metal output has continued to rise, exceeding market expectations, which to a certain extent falsified the steel mills’ production reduction logic; third, the pre-holiday black sectors include The deep adjustment of iron ore, from the perspective of discounts, also gives a larger room for longing.
From a macro perspective, it is Biden’s 1.
9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill that has accelerated, boosting asset risk appetite.
” Shanghai Yi The investment black researcher Guo Rong said.

　　It is understood that in the week of February 14th, the total shipment of new caliber Australia and Brazil iron ore was 26.
021 million tons, an increase of 7.
874 million tons from the previous month; the total shipment from Australia was 19.
587 million tons, an increase of 6.
645 million tons from the previous month; of which, Australia sent to China.
14.
90 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.
544 million tons; Brazil’s total shipments were 6.
434 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.
229 million tons.
The total global shipment volume was 32.
4 million tons, an increase of 8.
988 million tons from the previous month.
In terms of cargo arrivals, China’s 45 ports arrived at 20.
611 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 631,000 tons; the six northern ports reached 10.
034 million tons, a decrease of 1.
156 million tons from the previous month.
The total arrival volume of China's 26 ports was 19.
332 million tons, a decrease of 818,000 tons from the previous month.
Recently, iron ore has decreased compared with mid-January.

　　What is the demand situation? As of the week of February 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel plants was 83.
98%, an increase of 0.
78% month-on-month and 6.
90% year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 92.
19%, a month-on-month increase of 1.
25% and a year-on-year increase of 12.
09%.
The profit rate of steel mills was 77.
06%, an increase of 1.
30% month-on-month and a decrease of 9.
96% year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output was 2,453,800 tons, an increase of 33,200 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 321,900 tons year-on-year.
The average daily port volume dropped by 2.
8485 million tons and 431,600 tons.
“There is basically no maintenance during the Spring Festival of the steel mills, and the replenishment is reduced, mainly due to the consumption of iron ore inventory, and there may be centralized replenishment after the Lantern Festival.
” said Li Hairong, an iron ore researcher at Zhonghui Futures.

　　It is reported that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 127.
069 million tons, an increase of 1.
875 million tons from the previous month; the total imported iron ore inventory of the sample steel plants was 113,975,900 tons, a decrease of 10.
383,400 tons from the previous month; the current daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel plants It was 3.
0433 million tons, an increase of 48,200 tons from the previous month, and the inventory consumption ratio was 37.
45, a decrease of 4.
07 from the previous month.
There has been a decrease in port pressure vessels, and inventories continue to accumulate.

　　According to an industry person who did not wish to be named, terminal demand is expected to be good.
It is expected that domestic and overseas molten iron production will recover significantly under the effect of last year’s low base.
The Steel Union data also shows that molten iron production remained high during the Spring Festival, and the demand was strong and the supply was released.
Limited, Hong Kong stocks will continue to decline in the first half of the year, tight iron ore supply and demand are expected to continue, and the overall trend is still upward.
However, as prices rise, risks are gradually accumulating, and we need to focus on whether demand can recover in time after the holiday.

　　"From a medium-term logic point of view, iron ore is still in the four major mines' capacity bottleneck period superimposed on the mismatch period of China's blast furnace capacity release.
Due to the seasonal impact of China's molten iron production and imported ore shipments, it is expected that the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand in the first half Iron ore futures prices tend to rise but hardly fall, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be relatively eased in the second half of the year.
On the macro level, the recovery of the domestic and international real economy is still the main driving force, but the futures market has fulfilled some or most of the expectations, so it is even more challenging The demand situation of the black sector during peak season.
" Guo Rong said.

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