It is difficult for Shanghai aluminum to rebound sharply in the short term, mainly weak shocks

Changes in aluminum fundamentals: alumina prices continue to rise slightly, we still believe that the increase is limited, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise; The total explicit inventory of aluminum ingots and rods is nearly 1.
6 million tons, and the peak of inventory still needs to wait; The release of new production capacity in the first quarter is concentrated in Yunnan, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the release of production after the second quarter will become more and more obvious
.

Industry News:

1.
At the end of January 2020, China's imported bauxite inventory was about 26.
6 million tons, down 1.
74% month-on-month and 18.
64%
year-on-year.
At the end of January, the inventory of imported bauxite in Shandong was about 23.
4 million tons, down 1.
06% from the previous month.
The inventory in Shanxi was about 1.
37 million tons, a decrease of 12.
74% from the previous month; The inventory in Henan was about 990,000 tons, down 9.
17% from the previous month; Chongqing's inventory was about 500,000 tons, an increase of 25% month-on-month; Inventories in Inner Mongolia were about 300,000 tons, flat
month-on-month.
According to statistics, the number of days of imported bauxite inventory dematerialization at the end of January was 96 days, unchanged
from the previous month.

2.
News on March 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Aluminum Industry Specification Conditions"
.
This specification condition is applicable to bauxite mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum and recycled aluminum enterprises that have been completed and put into production, and is a guiding document to promote the technological progress and normative development of the industry, and does not have the premise and mandatory
of administrative approval.
Mining enterprises shall obtain mining licenses and safety production licenses in accordance with the law, and mining right holders shall carry out mine construction and development in accordance with the approved development and utilization plans, preliminary designs and safety facility designs, and it is strictly forbidden to mine without a license, indiscriminate mining, damage to the environment and waste resources
.
Alumina and electrolytic aluminum enterprises shall be filed by relevant departments in accordance with relevant national regulations, alumina enterprises shall implement external conditions such as bauxite resources and red mud storage, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises shall implement long-term stable supply
of alumina, electricity and water resources.

The overseas epidemic is the focus of the recent market, for aluminum, the industry cost line in the Wan San Yi area is still supported, and the room for decline is limited, but under the high inventory pressure in the first quarter and the long-term medium capacity climb, it is difficult to have a sharp rebound, and it is expected that the short-term price will be
dominated by weak shocks.