It is difficult to have a substantial repair in the short term, and aluminum prices will remain weak

Overnight, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2209 closed at 18370, up 385, and LME aluminum closed at 2396.
5, down 7
.

On the macro front, the US inflation data unexpectedly fell last week, but inflation stickiness is still strong, coupled with the weakness of non-US currencies, the US dollar is expected to remain strong
.
Domestically, the recent real estate stimulus policy has come out again, but the current stimulus is still uncertain, pay attention to the subsequent changes
.

On the supply side, affected by the continuous high temperature, the power tension in some areas has further intensified, and Sichuan has launched three-level power supply control measures, which does not rule out the subsequent shutdown scale or further expansion
.
According to the electrolytic aluminum production data released yesterday, the overall output from January to July still maintained growth
.
In terms of downstream demand, it is still in a weak state, and affected by high temperature and poor demand, the overall operating rate is low
.
In terms of inventory, aluminum inventories are still at a low level recently, but they have improved from the previous period, confirming poor demand
.

Overall, although there are short-term disturbances on the supply side, it is still difficult to falsify overseas macro recession expectations, superimposed on the continued weakening of demand, it is difficult to have a substantial repair in the short term, and aluminum prices are expected to remain weak
.