It is expected that the growth rate of the national drug market will fall to 4% in 2019

Medical network, August 14 - on August 13, the "2019 Western Conference" opened in Boao, Hainan Wu Han, President of Zhongkang information, pointed out in the keynote report entitled "pursuing effect and efficiency, and moving forward with negative entropy", that in recent years, the environment of China's pharmaceutical industry has changed dramatically, which has led to great changes in the drug market, health service supply market and payment structure, and the growth of the national drug market will be at a low and medium level for a long time, and it is expected to further decline to 4% in 2019 Wu Han pointed out that China's health industry needs to be reborn, and the road to proof lies in the ultimate pursuit of effect and efficiency Great changes have taken place in the industrial environment The reform of the review and approval system has accelerated, the evaluation of generic drug consistency has been steadily promoted, "4 + 7" volume procurement has been fully implemented, the new version of the national basic drug catalog has been released, the first batch of national key monitoring and rational drug catalog has been released, the adjustment of the national medical insurance catalog is imminent, the provincial medical insurance supplement catalog will be cancelled, and the three major documents of Health China action are in full swing New policies at the national level have been introduced intensively, making the industry dizzying "As we expected, the health industry environment has changed dramatically." Wu Han said that it is particularly noteworthy that when the competent authorities launched the new deal, they also greatly shortened the industry's adaptation period by frequent inspections and increasing the cost of violations of laws and regulations to ensure the timely implementation of policies and measures He pointed out that the research and development of Biopharmaceutics, new devices and materials have been accelerated, and the efficiency of achievement transformation has been improved; the Internet has begun to penetrate into the health industry in depth, playing the value of improving service efficiency and extending service radius in the business field, and has begun to establish a new business model; artificial intelligence has been applied and achieved good results in the fields of clinical diagnosis and treatment, drug research and development, and business efficiency improvement, 5g And the development of quantum computing will further expand the research and application space of artificial intelligence Nevertheless, "the huge population base, the coming of aging and the frequent occurrence of chronic diseases mean that there are huge unmet health needs in China, and the development prospect of health industry is broad." Said Wu Han Wu Han believes that the great changes in environment will lead to three major changes in the industry First, changes in the drug market According to the data of Zhongkang CMH, in 2018, the total scale of the whole Chinese drug market (excluding herbs, Chinese herbal pieces and formula granules) reached 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8% compared with 2017, with a slight decrease in growth rate It is estimated that in 2019, the scale of China's drug market will reach 1.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.0% over 2018, and the growth rate will continue to slow down Under the influence of policies such as volume purchase, auxiliary drug monitoring, new medical insurance catalog management and DRG (grouping by disease diagnosis) payment, the structure of drug market will be changed: the generic drug market will be transformed from the current situation of large volume and large amount to small volume and small amount, and the era of meager profit will come; the market share of patent drugs will gradually increase, and some products with uncertain efficacy will exit the market Similarly, under the influence of the policy, the channel structure is also changing In 2018, the third industry drugstore and the urban grass-roots medical treatment are increasing significantly, which has been considered to benefit from medicine Although the growth rate of drugs in retail pharmacies, which are separated and will gain huge growth space, has reached 6.7%, which is at a medium level, but it has not been matched due to policy coordination, supply zero coordination and technical coordination, and the outflow of prescription drugs from medical institutions to pharmacies has been slow and the growth has not reached the expectation At the same time, influenced by the public opinion and the new policy of medical insurance, some drugs, precious and fine herbs and non drugs with high weight have seen a significant decline in growth, even some categories and some provinces have seen negative growth, resulting in a nationwide aggregate growth of only 4.85% in the drug retail industry in 2018 and an expected growth of 4.5% in the whole category in 2019 "Although the growth has declined, we believe that as a more efficient measure, the long-term trend of separation of medicine remains unchanged With the coordination of policy, zero supply and technology, the position of drugstores as the main channel of drug supply will be gradually improved " Wu Han said that in the future, the retail industry needs to do a good job in self value positioning in the three markets of "national health insurance + generic drugs", "commercial insurance + patented drugs or original research drugs", "prevention and self medication + health management" Second, the health service supply market changes Wu said that in the future, the non-profit characteristics of the public health resources security system will be more prominent, with the state 's centralized procurement, average income and average output, large quantity and low price, meeting the basic security of the people At the same time, driven by policy and demand, profit-making institutions, including private hospitals, specialized clinics, physical examination and health management institutions, will develop faster as an effective resource supply to meet the multi-level health demand, and medical services will be transformed from the original non-profit institutions to the balanced supply of profit-making and non-profit Third, the change of payment structure At present, there are two main ways to pay for national health care in China: National Health Insurance and personal expenditure The proportion of commercial insurance is only about 3% However, in recent years, major insurance companies have increased efforts to layout medical and health insurance According to the statistics of bancassurance, the scale of medical and health insurance premiums in 2018 has reached 525.1 billion yuan, an increase of 24% In the future, commercial insurance will become an important means of payment next to national health insurance, and the proportion of individual payment will continue to decline With the increase of the proportion of commercial insurance payment, there will be a second buyer with centralized bargaining in the market "Driven by the environment, policy reform must focus on the improvement of effect and efficiency The reform centered on medical insurance payment is aimed at this key problem, eliminating inefficient supply and making room for efficient resources." Wu Han said that with the comprehensive coverage of national health insurance and the rise of commercial insurance as the main mode of payment, the effect and efficiency become the common measurement standard of payers to suppliers "Market opportunities will be left to cost leaders, technology leaders and brand leaders Change is painful, only the fittest can survive; change is also beautiful, and we will usher in a healthy industry with good currency "