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It is said every day that the new coronavirus is a big flu. What is the mortality rate of the flu?

 Last Update: 2022-01-23
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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First look at the global situation, mainly based on this document: Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics

When it comes to influenza mortality, there are generally several influencing factors: age, region, influenza type (type A or B), and statistical caliber
.

Of course, this also applies to the new crown

The mortality rate of people over 65 years old is at the level of 5/1,000 to 1/1,000, and the mortality rate of less than 65 years old is less than 1/10,000.
Of course, there are great differences in different countries and regions
.

Boxplot of the Stage 1 country estimates of influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality rates per 100 000 by WHO region, under 65 and over 65.
Panel A.
Age <65.
Panel B.
Age ≥65.

It is estimated by mathematical model that among people under 65 years old, influenza-related excess respiratory mortality (EMR) is 0.
1-6.
4 per 100,000 people; 2.
9-44 per 100,000 people for 65-74 years old; Ten thousand people were 17.
9-223.
5 people
.

In 92 countries around the world, influenza kills 9243-105 690 children under 5 years of age each year

9243-105 690 people

United States: CDC discloses flu data, the mortality rate is roughly 1 in 1,000

Mainly because the United States only counts all deaths associated with influenza .

domestic:

Article 1, Meta-analysis to be published in 2021, Influenza‑associated disease burden in China: a systematic review and meta‑analysis

The article searches 3 English and 4 Chinese databases, systematic reviews and meta-analyses of data published from 2005 to 2019
.

For domestic influenza, the death risk of all ages is 1 in 10,000, the death risk of people over 65 years old is 1 in 1000, and the mortality risk of less than 65 years old is about 2 in 100,000
.

For domestic influenza, the death risk of all ages is 1 in 10,000, the death risk of people over 65 years old is 1 in 1000, and the mortality risk of less than 65 years old is about 2 in 100,000

In China, the number of deaths caused by influenza must be counted only when influenza is the main cause of death.

Outcome

No.

"Excess deaths from influenza-related respiratory diseases in China 2010-2015: A population-based study," a collaboration between the China CDC, Fudan University, and the University of Hong Kong, was published in The Lancet-Public Health
.

The results showed that from 2010 to 2011 to 2014 to 2015, there were 88,100 (95% CI: 84,200 to 92,000) excess deaths from influenza-related respiratory diseases in the country on average per year , accounting for 8.
2% (95% CI: 7.
9) of all respiratory disease deaths.
∼8.
6), the excess mortality rate was 6.
5 (95% CI: 6.
3-6.
8)/100,000, and the age-standardized excess mortality rate was 5.
9 (95% CI: 5.
5-6.
3)/100,000
.

About 80% of excess deaths from influenza-related respiratory diseases occurred in the elderly over 60 years old, and the excess mortality rate in this age group (38.

National average of 88,100 (95% CI: 84,200 to 92,000) excess deaths from influenza-related respiratory disease per year

There was spatial heterogeneity in the excess mortality of influenza-related respiratory diseases among 22 provinces (Q = 784, P < 0.
001, I2 = 98%)
.

A random-effects meta-regression model, after including covariates for regional classification (west, central, and eastern), found that the average annual excess mortality rate was higher in the western and eastern regions than in the central region

There are differences in the excess respiratory mortality caused by influenza virus types/subtypes
.
The average annual excess respiratory mortality due to A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B influenza viruses was 1.
6 (95% CI: 1.
5 to 1.
7), 2.
6 (2.
4 to 2.
8) and 2.
3 (2.
1 to 2.
6)/ 100,000
.
Among people aged 60 years and older, the average annual excess respiratory mortality due to influenza A(H3N2) and B viruses was higher than that of A(H1N1)pdm09
.

The other, a meta-analysis published in 2019: A Systematic Review of the Study on the Burden of Influenza Deaths in China, included a total of 17 articles and extracted basic information on descriptive features, modeling methods, and corresponding results
.

A total of 17 papers were included, and the basic information describing the features, modeling methods and corresponding results was extracted
.
A total of 17 papers were included, and the basic information describing the features, modeling methods and corresponding results was extracted
.

All 17 papers used indirect model research methods, and the research indicators were all excess mortality, of which 14 used regression models; mainly all causes of death (16), respiratory and circulatory system diseases (14) and pneumonia and influenza ( 10) as a cause of influenza-related death
.
The death burden of the elderly is heavier, with the lowest excess mortality rates of all-cause, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and pneumonia and influenza being 49.
57/100,000, 30.
80/100,000, and 0.
69/100,000, respectively, and the highest being 228.
16/100,000, 170.
20/100,000, respectively.
100,000 and 30.
35/100,000; the lowest in the non-elderly group were -0.
27/100,000, -0.
08/100,000 and 0.
04/100,000, and the highest were 3.
63/100,000, 2.
6/100,000 and 0.
91/100,000
.
In the northern region, the all-cause excess mortality rate related to influenza was relatively high, with the lowest being 7.
8/100,000 and the highest being 18.
0/100,000
.
There were also differences in deaths caused by different influenza virus subtypes, with A(H3N2) and B types causing a higher burden of death
.

references:

References: References:

Iuliano AD, et al.
Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study.
Lancet.
2018.
PMID: 29248255

Iuliano AD, et al.
Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study.
Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study.

Ahmed M, et al.
Estimates of seasonal influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh, 2010-2012.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses.
2018

Estimates of seasonal influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh, 2010-2012.

Paget J, et al.
Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project.
J Glob Health.
2019.

Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project.

Li L, Liu Y, Wu P, et al.
Influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality in China, 2010-15: a population-based study.
Lancet Public Health 2019,4: e473–81.

Li Sa, Liu Sijia, Zhu Aiqin, et al.
A systematic review of studies on the death burden of influenza in China [J].
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2019, 53 (10): 1049-1055.
DOI: 10.
3760/cma.
j.
issn.
0253-9624.
2019.
10.
018

Li J, Chen Y, Wang X, Yu H.
Influenza-associated disease burden in mainland China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Sci Rep.
2021 Feb 3;11(1):2886.
doi: 10.
1038/s41598-021 -82161-z

Influenza-associated disease burden in mainland China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
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