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    Home > Food News > Food Articles > It is too early to talk about "meat overcapacity".

    It is too early to talk about "meat overcapacity".

    • Last Update: 2020-09-30
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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     It is too early to talk about "meat overcapacity"
    Recently, there is public opinion that although pork prices are still high, but China is currently under construction or will be built pig farming projects on a larger scale, do not rule out a larger decline in pork prices in the future, pig industry will also appear overcapacity. In response, some people said that the scale of pig farming projects under construction or will be built can achieve geometry is still unknown, it is too early to discuss whether pork prices can appear in the future down, or even whether there will be excess.
    fact, beef has also been running at a high level recently, up sharply from a year earlier. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs market monitoring data show that the recent price of beef in China from the 24th week of 2020 81.81 yuan / kg continued to rise to 35 weeks of 83.97 yuan / kg, 12 consecutive weeks to maintain the rise. You know, there are no major holidays in the near future, belong to the low season of beef consumption, beef prices are still running at a high level, it is worthy of market concern.
    pork is good, beef is also good, meat prices are a variety of factors. In addition to the slowdown in domestic supply and overseas import growth, there is also a reason not to be ignored, that is, China's residents meat consumption increased significantly. Taking beef as an example, from 2015 to 2019, China's beef consumption grew at an average annual rate of 5.84 percent, while beef production grew at an average annual rate of only 1.97 percent over the same period. After all, the acceleration of urbanization, the growth of residents' income and the upgrading of consumption have all led to a significant increase in the consumption of meat by residents and an increase in the quality of meat.
    Other words, it would be biased to ignore the dynamic factor of increasing the willingness of residents to consume meat and judge future prices and overcapacity only by the current static meat supply and demand. Although China's total consumption of meat last year reached 94.2 million tons, ranking first in the world, but per capita meat consumption is only 64 kg, and many developed countries per capita meat consumption in about 100 kg. That is to say, in the foreseeable future, China's residents meat consumption still has a lot of room for improvement. Of course, China's resident meat consumption structure is different from that of developed countries, pork accounts for a large proportion, followed by poultry and beef.
    More crucially, in terms of existing consumption, the supply gap in china's residents' meat consumption is also very large, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data, China's pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat production in 2019 76.49 million tons, down 10.2% year-on-year, and from 2013 to 2018, China's pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat production has been maintained at more than 86 million tons. With nearly 10m tonnes of "disappeared capacity", it will not be easy to restore it. After all, meat production requires both a certain time period and specific land and environmental conditions, and there are still many challenges and uncertainties in the way new capacity is added, from paper to landing to livestock.
    That is to say, the various meat production capacity under construction and to be built should not only meet the current consumption gap, but also take into account the willingness to upgrade consumption in the future, so that the new capacity can maintain the stability of meat prices and the sustainability of related industries. From this point of view, it is really too early to say whether there will be "meat overcapacity" in the future.
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