It will take time for the TDI market to recover

Entering September, the domestic TDI market did not see the expected "Golden Nine" market.

Looking at the market outlook, difficulty in boosting demand is still a roadblock for the TDI market, and the short-term downturn may be difficult to change

Supply expected to increase

Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of Chemical Industry, introduced that in September, the domestic TDI market supply has shrunk significantly, but it is still difficult to reverse the market downturn

From a domestic perspective, TDI plants in Yantai Juli, Gansu Yinguang, Yantai Wanhua, and Canghua Juhai were shut down, and the Shanghai BASF plant was shut down again due to gas supply failure

Meng Xianxing analyzed that with the expansion of production capacity in recent years, the oversupply of the TDI market has become apparent

Looking at the market outlook, TDI exports are tepid, and overseas supply is gradually stabilizing; domestic demand has not increased significantly, and the installations of Cangzhou Dahua, Gansu Yinguang and Wanhua Chemical Yantai will be restarted, and the industry operating rate is expected to increase

To sum up, in the absence of sudden positive conditions, TDI may maintain a stalemate and wait-and-see.

Limited raw material support

　　In September, the market for TDI raw material toluene fluctuated strongly

　　According to Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, the current supply of toluene in Northeast China has increased, suppressing market prices, and the price of toluene delivered to the surrounding areas of Shandong is 5730-5750 yuan

　　From the perspective of external disks, the Asian toluene market is volatile

　　In terms of inventory, according to incomplete statistics, the domestic inventory of toluene north and south ports is about 53,000 tons

　　Weak demand

　　Meng Xianxing believes that sluggish demand is an important factor in the fading of the TDI "Golden Nine" market this year

　　Under the energy consumption "dual control" policy, terminal enterprises in Jiangsu, Guangdong and other terminal enterprises continue to restrict electricity and production, and some enterprises "open four holidays and three holidays"

　　In addition, since the end of August, the environmental protection inspection team has been stationed in Shandong, and environmental inspections have become stricter; the northern "2+26" channel cities have launched air pollution control measures for the Beijing Winter Olympics, which will affect the production and operation of TDI terminal enterprises

　　Specifically, on September 17, Jiangsu Changhua, Zhongshan, and Ningwu polyether plants all limited the production of about 20%; Shandong also has certain production restrictions, and some polyether devices have unstable load; Zhejiang is affected by safety inspections, and some sponges Enterprises continue to stop work or reduce their burdens, coupled with insufficient freight and capacity to restrict exports, the subsequent transmission of polyether demand is relatively limited

　　The alcohol and ether industry was affected by the policy.