Its own fundamental support is strong, and the Shanghai copper market is still optimistic

Since October, commodities have generally fallen
.
The Wenhua Commodity Index tumbled 12.
45% to 148.
56 points
.
Rubber fell 16.
86%, iron ore fell 17.
06%, and soybean meal fell 16.
74%.

Copper prices showed extraordinary "resistance", London copper prices fell by only 6.
6%, Shanghai copper prices fell by less than 5%, while nickel, which is also a nonferrous system, fell by 17.
66%.

Compared with other commodities, copper prices are "resistant", consolidating the basis for the later price rebound, and at the same time, the bottom pattern on the technical surface is gradually emerging
.

The tight supply-side has not eased this year, mainly reflected in the continuous decline
in exchange inventories.
As of 30 November, LME copper stocks fell 65% from their highest point this year, compared with 57%
in the previous period.

The implementation of the "scrap seven types of import policy" has aggravated the shortage
of domestic supply.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment cancelled the permission of trading enterprises to import seven types of scrap, reduced the approved import volume and raised the import standard of scrap copper price, etc.
, which greatly reduced the import volume of scrap copper
.
Customs data show that the cumulative import volume of copper scrap in the first September was about 1.
8 million physical tons, down 35.
01% year-on-year; Affected by environmental protection policies, the cost of copper scrap dismantling has increased
.

Since the beginning of this year, the global supply of electrolytic copper has contracted seriously
.
Copper supply
is affected by frequent overhauls, shutdowns and unexpected production cuts at copper smelters around the world.
Production from older mines has fallen as copper grades have declined, with Chile's state-owned copper company down 3 percent to 1.
2 million tonnes
in the first nine months this year.

Environmental protection is becoming stricter, affecting the output
of copper mines.
For example, Codelco plans to overhaul 60~80 days in December to meet strict emission standards, India's 400,000-ton copper smelter capacity and Europe's largest copper smelter Aurubis AG's plants in Hamburg and Luenen will be shut down from time to time
.
According to the survey, copper smelters will usher in a major year
of maintenance in 2019.

Despite the weak performance of downstream demand, spot stocks are in a state of
high premium.
In the domestic market, the daily spot of Yangtze River maintained nearly 200 yuan of premium
.
In the past two weeks, LME spot copper prices have risen to $42.
50 a tonne from the March copper price, up from just $
14 two weeks ago.
It can be seen that spot traders have a strong willingness to raise prices, and while copper prices are low, the market is also more reluctant to sell
.

On November 28, Fed Chairman Powell said that the real interest rate in the United States is close to the neutral interest rate, and the market generally interprets that this means that the Fed's interest rate hike process ends early, and some market forecasts that the number of interest rate hikes next year may be reduced to 2, and even does not rule out the possibility
of early end of the US interest rate hike in the middle of next year.
With fewer rate hikes in 2019, the dollar is likely to weaken
.

To sum up, with the temporary easing of Sino-US trade frictions, the Shanghai copper market is still optimistic
about the future market under the support of the strong fundamentals of copper prices themselves.